Question Intel's future after Pat Gelsinger

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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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On any case, if Broadcom would take Intel design, Broadcom needs to get x86 license and continue developing it.
IMO AMD knows this. Hope so.

AMD is apparently blocking, as they should.

AMD should block it for exactly the same length of time it took Intel to keep AMD and EU in court about monopolistic practices.

And at the end, AMD should ask Broadcom to share with AMD its networking IP in return for being able to use x86 license.

 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Plus royalties for every x86 CPU sold. AMD had a huge part in advancing x86 technology so no reason they shouldn't benefit from it.

Yup, I thought about royalties. But the biggest gap in AMD AI portfolio is a network switch. AMD just did not want to "make Hock Tan angry" by developing it or acquiring a network company that has it
 
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StefanR5R

Elite Member
Dec 10, 2016
6,341
9,760
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AMD is already selling more server CPUs and desktop is coming. Laptop ?? Not sure.
These are the figures which AMD presented for Q4/2024:

(via computerbase.de)

Now I don't know how the remaining non-AMD market share splits into Intel and non-Intel percentages.

[edit: as Markfw points out below, the table has been posted before: AMD 2024-Q4 Earnings, page 3]
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
5,061
3,545
136
I look at the position of CEO like that of a captain of a large ship. If the ship is in good shape, the crew knowledgable, happy, and on top of things, navigation equipment working properly, mission/destination clear, then it's EASY to run the ship. Just steer clear of icebergs and other such hazards. Of course even in this easy situation you need to understand that course changes must be made miles before the obstacle.

But in reality no new CEO is hired when a company/ship is in good shape. The crew is unhappy and unmotivated, the engines are having issues, no clear course is charted, radar doesn't seem to be working properly, ... lots of things need to be attended to. The captain/CEO needs to understand the needs of the crew, the state of the engines, radar, and other equipment, realize which need to be fixed first, and able to chart the right course forward. Normal people don't even know where to start when thrown into a position like this.

So a great CEO needs to be part engineer, accountant, financial manager, scientist, psychologist, and magician. Oh yeah, and you have to be willing to work 100 hours/week, week-after-week, month-after-month, year-after-year. Great CEO's are a rare breed. There is a reason they are so highly paid. What is expected of them is an impossible task for 99.999% of the population.

On top of all of these requirements you have to be the type of person that can, at the same time, both make hard decisions/fire people and sleep at night, while still being compassionate. I wouldn't wish it on an enemy.
 

marees

Senior member
Apr 28, 2024
951
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TSMC Will Not Take Over Intel Operations, Observers Say​

TSMC is considering taking a controlling stake in Intel Foundry as urged by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, according to a Bloomberg report last week, citing one person close to the matter.

A few days later, the Wall Street Journal reported that Broadcom is interested in buying Intel Products if a potential investor takes over Intel Foundry.

Intel and TSMC declined to comment on the matter.


The reported plan to pair TSMC with Intel will fizzle, according to Handel Jones, CEO of International Business Strategies (IBS), which advises electronics companies and investors.
“The U.S. government wants the U.S. to have large capacity in the U.S. at under 2 nanometers, and this is appropriate. The key is the level of commitment that TSMC will make to capacity in the U.S. TSMC has no interest in the wafer-fab facilities of Intel. We talk with both companies on an almost real-time basis.”


Taking on Intel Foundry would be a “battleship anchor” on TSMC’s bottom line, TechInsights vice chair Dan Hutcheson told EE Times.
“There is no reason for TSMC to help Intel, other than the uncertainty around President Trump’s ask. Intel can manage its own fabs, and 18A is coming along nicely. What Intel needs is to fill its fabs.”
There is no chance of an agreement, Hutcheson said.
“It’s only good in the interest of Intel’s self-inflicted financial situation. It hurts America’s national-security interests. It is not in TSMC’s interests. Why save your drowning chief competitor when you’ll have a monopoly once they’re gone?”


Paul Triolo, who advises global tech clients at Washington, D.C.-based Albright Stonebridge Group, said: TSMC had to acquiesce to Washington before when it stopped selling chips to China’s Huawei, agreed to build fabs in Arizona and now considers helping Intel.
“TSMC is in the most delicate of geopolitical positions and has to answer the phone when Washington calls, however bad the request could be.”
“Who decides which customers use which foundry services? This is not a simple question, as it would involve a lot more collaboration between Intel, TSMC and leading design houses. Trump administration officials have not had enough time to look at the issue in sufficient depth, and this effort is very preliminary.”


The Trump administration’s overarching aim is for more U.S. investment from TSMC, according to C.Y. Huang, president of FCC Partners, an investment bank based in Taiwan.
The administration will urge TSMC to increase its currently planned $65 billion investment in two fabs in Arizona to at least $200 billion and five fabs, Huang said in a post on LinkedIn. That would include a push for TSMC to move its CoWoS advanced-packaging technology to the U.S., he added. In Taiwan, TSMC uses CoWoS to make AI chips for Nvidia and a handful of other chip designers.

https://www.eetimes.com/tsmc-will-not-take-over-intel-operations-observers-say/
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
5,061
3,545
136
It was easy for Pat coz he was sleeping ON the job
I had high hopes for Pat. He may have gotten a raw deal in that he wasn't provided enough time for his vision to come to fruition. Or he may not have been well rounded enough in all of the traits I mentioned above, perhaps too heavy on the tech and not enough on economics and people. Who knows? But it's not for lack of intelligence these people don't come through. They are all quite smart, it's having the entire skill set in one individual, the passion, and the work ethic.

Unfortunately when you are making tens of millions per year it's all to easy to strap on the golden parachute and jump when the going gets rough. I could imagine them thinking, "I don't need this. I'm set for life. Word to your moms I came to drop bombs. Drop the mic and bounce."
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,493
12,367
136
That would leave Apple and Qualcomm as the biggest winners.
That's orthogonal to the point. All the platform advancements mentioned as having been Intel's handiwork wouldn't be coming from Apple or Qualcomm, either (well maybe Apple, but they'd keep everything proprietary for as long as possible). All the implementation support mentioned as an advantage when working with Intel would definitely not come from Apple (vertically-integrated) or Qualcomm.

All that aside, if AMD wants to continue keeping x86 alive, they're more than capable of doing it by themselves. There are some other things people might miss if/when Intel is finished as an IDM, but x86 won't be one of those things.
 

Thibsie

Golden Member
Apr 25, 2017
1,010
1,186
136
That's orthogonal to the point. All the platform advancements mentioned as having been Intel's handiwork wouldn't be coming from Apple or Qualcomm, either (well maybe Apple, but they'd keep everything proprietary for as long as possible). All the implementation support mentioned as an advantage when working with Intel would definitely not come from Apple (vertically-integrated) or Qualcomm.

All that aside, if AMD wants to continue keeping x86 alive, they're more than capable of doing it by themselves. There are some other things people might miss if/when Intel is finished as an IDM, but x86 won't be one of those things.
One of the problems would be capacity.
AMD design capabilities are not in question (AFAIK) but if Intel in one year (let's say) doesn't ship x86 anymore, how would AMD be able to compensate ?
They won't, not for quite a time, ordering wafers and packaging isn't like fast food as we all know.

And then less competition would be bad too.
 
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mikegg

Golden Member
Jan 30, 2010
1,884
501
136
According to Retired Engineer (or ChatGPT), revocation of cross license is automatic on change of control. AMD would not have to do anything.

Why does this even matter? This is a non-story. If the cross licensing agreement automatically cancels, AMD can't make x86 CPUs either. It would be in the best interest between AMD and Intel's acquirer to hash out a new cross licensing agreement.
 
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Thibsie

Golden Member
Apr 25, 2017
1,010
1,186
136
Why does this even matter? This is a non-story. If the cross licensing agreement automatically cancels, AMD can't make x86 CPUs either. It would be in the best interest between AMD and Intel's acquirer to hash out a new cross licensing agreement.

Well, was this mutual (in case of acquisition) or only targeting AMD ?
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,493
12,367
136
One of the problems would be capacity.
AMD design capabilities are not in question (AFAIK) but if Intel in one year (let's say) doesn't ship x86 anymore, how would AMD be able to compensate ?
They won't, not for quite a time, ordering wafers and packaging isn't like fast food as we all know.

And then less competition would be bad too.

Yes less competition would be bad. That being said, it would take a spin-up time of maybe two to three years, but AMD could replace that capacity if they so desired. Or they could just strangle the market chasing higher margins, if they thought they could get away with it.

Why does this even matter? This is a non-story. If the cross licensing agreement automatically cancels, AMD can't make x86 CPUs either. It would be in the best interest between AMD and Intel's acquirer to hash out a new cross licensing agreement.
And this analysis comes from ChatGPT?

There's no way Intel's lawyers agreed to anything that would prevent ANYONE from being able to produce x86 CPUs in the event of an acquisition. Think about it for a moment: let's pretend someone bought out AMD in 2016 in a bid to kill the company and strip assets (assuming Zen1 never happened). Then Intel can't produce CPUs. Does this make any sense?
 
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