Interesting picture ;)

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
/me waves something at wildhagen...(hehe!)

That sure is an ugly graph you have there....

The sad part is that, currently, it is true....

Time to invert that graph !!!
 

TwoFace

Golden Member
May 31, 2000
1,811
0
0
This is one of those times that a post from a DPC actually is quite ok...

/me waves at wildhagen and the whole DPC

Seriously tho'

Team we need to ASSIMILATE!

If wildhagen is correct (and I have a bad feeling he is!) we won't be numero uno for more than a month

We can't have that, so I'd say we have to follow up on Dan C's challenge and assimilate one member each this week, and we and they (the new ones) have to recruit another member the next week, and so on and so forth...

We can't let the DPC trash us like this can we?!?

Go Ta, GO!

Two-Face
 

JimMc

Platinum Member
Oct 9, 1999
2,305
0
0
We have an old saying here: Don't count your tulip bulbs before they've bloomed...
 

RobNicoNL

Junior Member
Sep 1, 2000
4
0
0


<< Don't count your tulip bulbs before they've bloomed >>



You know what the best part is.. you always count them after they've bloomed (I've packed flowerblubs for a few weeks) But if DPC keeps growing then RC5-64 challenge won't be that much fun anymore so we are counting on AT that AT will grow.. but not to much ofcourse


 

Viztech

Platinum Member
Oct 9, 1999
2,807
0
0
Down, Paulson, Down! Good boy!

Only problem with that chart is that it assumes an increasing rate of growth for DPC, decreasing for TA, and no change for Slash.

What's up with that anyway?

viz
 

DanC

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2000
5,553
0
0
Yep - down guys -
Let's all stop to reflect on all the good things in our lives.

Nothing happens until it happens. One way we can be certain that it happens is to do nothing.

Get one more person - everyone. And then do it again.
 

Russ

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
21,093
3
0
wildhagen,

Nice try. According to your graph, you'd have to average nearly 3 million blocks a day. Since you're currently around 2.2, you'd have to be doing 3 times your current rate at the end of the period.

Russ, NCNE
 

Russ

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
21,093
3
0
Okay, guys, you want the real picture? This is what is actually going to happen.

Russ, NCNE
 

hymy

Senior member
Oct 12, 1999
535
0
76
Ok,

rant mode on

You'll have to excuse me here, I really hate when people bend statistical methods to their own sick ends. It contributes to the continuing erosion of the reputation of science because the interpretation of scientific data is inescapably entwined with a faith in statistics. When people abuse statistics they're abusing science. It is truly unfortunate that the accuracy of any statistical interpretation depends so much on the impartiality of the practitioner of statistics.

There are several things amiss here. Now I'm not saying he's being deceptive, he's probably just ignorant. But it is one of the two.

#1 is this graph the result of regression?

If it is it looks like wildhagen used a linear model for all but DPC for which he used some type of power model. This could belie some sort of deception. If it isn't the result of regression then theprojection into the future is mere artwork. So its likely that regression is involved. Wildhagen should have stated what models were used and why.

#2 Regression analysis is used as a predictor of future outcomes. It cannot be used to predict outcomes for events that were not a part of the random sample. Future dates cannot be sampled therefore use of the regression to predict the future is invalid. I understand the need to project the overtaking of a competitor and can overlook this problem. But we all know that an assumption is made when we use regression analysis to project something. In this case the assumption is that production rates will remain unchanged with time. We all know that to be false. There is no statistical method to validly do this.

#3 Wildhagen should have included a scatter plot of the data overlaid on the regression model as well as an indicator of fit. This is so that we can see how well the model fits. This graph could be an invalid fit. It is very difficult sometimes to find the best model for a given set of data. Excel will fit the data to a model irregardless of whether the model is appropriate. By showing some sort of indicator of fit the author is demonstrating that he has ascertained the proper model to use. There are no computer programs that can do this.

rant mode off

Just some items to think about when you look at that graph. Hope its been helpful. I would also like to state that this is in no way an attack on wildhagen himself. I just tell the truth, I can't help it, if it stings a little. Better yet consider it a challenge to his statistical ability.
 

Scraper

Member
Jun 13, 2000
50
0
0
In defense of Wildhagen, this little pic was found on Gathering of Tweakers. Here the URL

It wasn't made by Wildhagen by the way. Crisp did this one.

edit: Url diddn't work.
 

Onno

Member
May 4, 2000
35
0
0
hymy, you're absolutely right. That graph doesn't make a lot of sense, and the method used is very questionable... but hell, who cares @ got, the members must be kept motivated!

(and the same goes for Russ' graph! )
 

hymy

Senior member
Oct 12, 1999
535
0
76
scraper,


How is that defending wildhagen. That just makes the situation uglier. Just because he plagiarized a badly documented graph doesn't make him innocent. Crisp needs to provide more info about his graphs, cuz even the dpc's can't be sure that graph is valid now.
 

hymy

Senior member
Oct 12, 1999
535
0
76
Onno, I don't know how they did it but those posts by Russ and DanC that contain a graph were inserted ahead of my post and were not there at the time of my post. In essence I did not see them before my original post. I'd like to know how they did that.

damn this thread got outta hand.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
I think the threads are now in que....Once you start a reply, it goes first as I did the same thing today and even looked at it after the fact...I was there, then bumped...

I'm going to ask Zuni?
 

Russ

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
21,093
3
0
That's because yours is REALITY; a pleasant reality at that.:Q

Russ, NCNE
 

Kwatt

Golden Member
Jan 3, 2000
1,602
12
81
hymy

&quot;There are 3 kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.&quot; Mark Twain

 

Dale

Senior member
Oct 9, 1999
503
0
0
DanC I like your graph, a request though

A. are those Koi (or some type of Koi/goldfish hybrid) with your trout

B. Do you have, or can you post links to other pictures of your pond ??

thanks
Dale

I will look at the other graphs after I review Dans further ; )
 
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