Is Apple about to lose its dominance in the smartphone/tablet market?

[cl-scott]

I strongly doubt it. It'll be another two years before we start to approach saturation in the worldwide smart phone market. Apple's going to keep selling even more smart phones, and hauling in even more money. It's also still early to really know where tablets are going to go and what the potential market is there. Will they eventually take over most of the PC market? Hard to say what the potential is there. Apple is also continuing to sell more and more desktop and notebook computers (Yeah, they still make those ) so they're still slowly growing there as well.



People make this same argument every new product generation and it turns out not to be true. Eventually the problems get fixed and no one really cares about them or the tech press latches on to some new sensationalism to drive page views and stop writing about whatever latest -gate scandal is plaguing Apple and will spell their doom.



Given their past history, they seem to be pretty good at fixing problems and getting things smoothed out. Of course they'll run into some new problems on the next go around and people will jump all over that as though it somehow spells doom for the company.



That's what happens when you completely tap out your existing market and don't grow into anything else. That's why Apple isn't going to have any problems for at least another two or three years. Their two biggest markets are still growing rapidly year-over-year. When they get their, they'll need to find some next big thing for the company if they want to keep expanding.

From experience, things quickly get to where you have people quoting one or two words, and the context is completely lost when you break it up like that, so...

In those emerging markets, it's the low cost Android devices that are hoovering up the new customers. Not the high end boutique products Apple sells. So, Apple's market is basically self-limited to just the people who can afford their inflated prices in the name of a healthy profit margin. Nothing wrong with a healthy profit margin, but it's going to be a tough sell for Apple. They have to convince people that they should ignore the much lower cost Android device, that can do pretty much everything the iPhone can just maybe not quite as "slickly". When $100 might be over a month's income, I don't see that sales pitch going over very well.

And I'm sure people said that RIM and Nokia have nothing to worry about. Every time BIS went down, they eventually fixed it and no one cared. Every time someone has a call dropped by AT&T or the LTE network for Verizon goes down... They eventually fix it and no one cares. Do you have any interest in bridges? I have a couple beauties for sale! Real cheap! Recently de-trolled even!

The larger point, however, is that the mainstream press was considerably more muted this time around. So what happens if the next time around most of the mainstream press decides that they're tired of covering yet another iPhone release and just ignores it? You still think there will be lines around the block? Or maybe they don't ignore it completely, but they just give it kind of a cursory bit of coverage.

Also, Apple has apparently decided to make a number of decisions that compromise quality. Their retina model laptops have virtually everything integrated into the logic board now, the display panel is quite a bit more fragile now... Which is all kind of again missing the forest for the trees, as Apple has been systematically winding down their computer division for a while now, so then they will just have the iDevices left to keep them going. Will they be able to find some other market to expand into before that comes crashing down around them? Who knows. Steve Jobs was the one who had a unique talent for taking other people's ideas and packaging them in such a way that would sell very well, and now he's dead. Sure, there's no way he could have been singularly responsible for everything, but he was the one who would green light ideas. Tim Cook is a operations and logistics guy, not an idea guy. It'll probably be like when Jobs was forced out, and the guy to replace him tried to do everything exactly the same as Jobs, but things still came crashing down around him.

And then at the end, it seems as if you agree with my premise, but were arguing with it for... Reasons. The iPhone 5 will probably be considered a success in the short term, even the mid-term... But when the company is desperately clinging to life like RIM and Nokia, and people look back with the benefit of future knowledge, I'm betting this will be the point where they say things started to go off the rails.

 

[golem]

Huh?

Razr, Razr Maxx, Razr M

One V, One S, One X

Galaxy S, Galaxy Note, Galaxy ____ (their value brand, smaller/cheaper)

I think he meant the release of one flagship device instead of multiple flagship one after another in one year. Which is more or less true.

Razr M is mid level, Razr Maxx is just Razr with bigger battery.

One X+ is slightly faster processor and more memory than One X

The Note is a little different. It is a bigger Galaxy with a processor/screen bump, but it brings more to the table in the form of s-pen than then either the X+ or Maxx did.

 

[Blueychan]

I'm saying that Apple may not do as well as it has in the past, starting with September of 2012, because the iPhone 5 upgrade is a small incremental over that of the 4S and isn't that much better than competitor Androids.

5 million units is well short of the 6.5 million units that was expected by analysts hence the drop in stock price.

This post is so full of ignorance SMH!

 

[golem]

I would say it won't necessarily be the number of Android devices coming out so much as the missteps Apple has been making of late.

* Siri was having issues figuring out the differences between say NY, NY and NY, TX
* Apple Maps (covered extensively)
* iOS 6 causing significant battery drain for some iPhone 4/4S owners
* Cosmetic blemishes from the factory on the iPhone 5
* No third party cables for the iPhone 5 that aren't "blessed" by Apple
* A pretty steady undercurrent of discontent on the part of app developers at the arbitrary, often heavy handed, and always opaque treatment Apple doles out
* Small, but growing, dissatisfaction with every iPhone/iPad/iTouch release being essentially a warmed over version of the previous one
* The heavy handed treatment AT&T seems to be giving to iPhone users a la face time

Those are just a couple of reasons. I'm probably forgetting a few, but basically I see some large storm clouds off in the distance that are on their way to settle over a certain address in Cupertino which will see them sharing the fate of RIM and Nokia.

How is what your saying in regards to Apple different than any other company? Every company makes mistakes and missteps and eventually fails unless they re-invent themselves or make new products/product lines.

You're assuming Apple stays static, and if that's true, then yes sooner or later they will fade. But that list proves nothing, especially since some them seem like a stretch or could to apply to any company.

Will people really blame Apple cuz AT&T sucks? Didn't happen when AT&T's network sucked, they blamed AT&T.

Maps has gotten bashed quite a bit, but it will improve and is already improving. And isn't this sort of the same thing as antenna gate? Big storm for a couple of months then more or less forgotten. Same thing will probably happen if Apple is able fix most of Maps problems.

Cosmetic blemishes - doesn't this apply to all consumer products? But how many other companies will let you continue using that item and then give you a new one later on when there's more stock?

In what way is a GS3 vs a GS2 that much different than a IP 5 vs 4s? An EVO LTE vs EVO 3d?

Does Apple ever bless third party cables? They want you to buy their own right? If you mean no 3rd party cables at all. That could be a problem, but it's still unknown if there's something in the lightning connector that would prevent 3rd party cables.

 

[MrX8503]

I love the crystal ball predictions. Didn't people predict the original iPod, iPhone, and iPad failing? Lol.

Apple is going to be around for a long time, they don't need to dominate marketshare. Looking at the PC sector, Apple is in no way dominating and yet HP is having huge financial losses.

 

[Mopetar]

In those emerging markets, it's the low cost Android devices that are hoovering up the new customers. Not the high end boutique products Apple sells. So, Apple's market is basically self-limited to just the people who can afford their inflated prices in the name of a healthy profit margin. Nothing wrong with a healthy profit margin, but it's going to be a tough sell for Apple. They have to convince people that they should ignore the much lower cost Android device, that can do pretty much everything the iPhone can just maybe not quite as "slickly". When $100 might be over a month's income, I don't see that sales pitch going over very well.

You're right that Apple won't have a big presence in these markets, but given their usual business strategy of high margins, they may not even want to, or at least not to the degree that they'd have to cut margins in order to do so. Apple's only real approach to markets where cost is a major factor is their older devices, which while not exactly new, stack up fairly well against cheaper alternatives and are generally still well supported.

And I'm sure people said that RIM and Nokia have nothing to worry about. Every time BIS went down, they eventually fixed it and no one cared. Every time someone has a call dropped by AT&T or the LTE network for Verizon goes down... They eventually fix it and no one cares. Do you have any interest in bridges? I have a couple beauties for sale! Real cheap! Recently de-trolled even!

You assume that this isn't a two-way street. What about the problems that Motorola is having, or HTC's problems, etc. Some people will probably abandon Apple for something else over time. Of course other people will abandon whatever they're currently using in order to move over to Apple. Every company is always having some minor problem so there's always some room for mobility. However, I don't think that there's any indication that Apple is having any more or less problems than most other companies so there's no good reason why people should only be leaving iOS.

The larger point, however, is that the mainstream press was considerably more muted this time around. So what happens if the next time around most of the mainstream press decides that they're tired of covering yet another iPhone release and just ignores it? You still think there will be lines around the block? Or maybe they don't ignore it completely, but they just give it kind of a cursory bit of coverage.

They won't ignore it because they're interested in page views and an Apple event is a chance at getting a lot of them. Also, the majority of consumers probably don't read much of the same tech press that people on these forums read. As long as there are a few big names like Mossberg that think it's a good product, that's all most people will read about. Almost no one will care if Bob and his tiny blog don't think it's very innovative. Lines will still form, but because they always form no one will care. The first time it happened it was a genuine curiosity, but after that it just becomes normal or expected. But I don't think it's going to impact sales. I'm going to assume that most people don't buy their phone based on the number of people standing in line for it or the media's coverage of that line.

Also, Apple has apparently decided to make a number of decisions that compromise quality. Their retina model laptops have virtually everything integrated into the logic board now, the display panel is quite a bit more fragile now... Which is all kind of again missing the forest for the trees, as Apple has been systematically winding down their computer division for a while now, so then they will just have the iDevices left to keep them going.

And they're selling well and outpacing their competition in terms of growth, so what's the problem? Oh, geeks don't like it. But they're not Apple's target demographic and only make up a small part of the market.

Also, I wouldn't say that they're winding down the division when their sales are increasing and they're still doing new things in the product space. It's likely that they believe that in the long term (10+ years) PC's will see a large decline, but in the short term people still want to buy them or need them for various reasons.

Will they be able to find some other market to expand into before that comes crashing down around them? Who knows. Steve Jobs was the one who had a unique talent for taking other people's ideas and packaging them in such a way that would sell very well, and now he's dead. Sure, there's no way he could have been singularly responsible for everything, but he was the one who would green light ideas. Tim Cook is a operations and logistics guy, not an idea guy. It'll probably be like when Jobs was forced out, and the guy to replace him tried to do everything exactly the same as Jobs, but things still came crashing down around him.

There are some big differences. The first is that Jobs chose Cook so I think they both have a fairly good understanding of where the strengths and weaknesses lie. The second is that there are plenty of other people at Apple who can handle the idea side of things. It's also quite likely that Jobs left Apple with any ideas that he had and that even though he's gone, the company will still be following his direction for several more years.

And then at the end, it seems as if you agree with my premise, but were arguing with it for... Reasons.

I don't. They lack . . . reason.

The iPhone 5 will probably be considered a success in the short term, even the mid-term...

It gets replaced in one year. That's about all the success it needs to be.

But when the company is desperately clinging to life like RIM and Nokia

This is quite possibly the stupidest thing I've read all week. I'm not even joking. Under what grounds could you possibly justify such a claim? RIM and Nokia have had their sales shrink. Apple has been seeing significant growth in almost all of their major product areas. They have something like $100 billion in the bank.

and people look back with the benefit of future knowledge, I'm betting this will be the point where they say things started to go off the rails.

Nope, this is just another in a long line of 'Apple is doomed' posts that aren't based of any kind of actual logic or actual data. If it makes you feel better, go ahead and bookmark this and come back in two years. My guess is that Apple's stock value will have shot way up and they'll be doing better than ever before. They might even have a new product category or market that they're involved in. The only thing that won't change is that some people will still be making utterly delusional claims that the company is somehow doomed.

Seriously, if you actually want people to believe any of what you have to say, at least find some quantitative piece of evidence that somehow suggests the company is in trouble.

 

[cl-scott]

How is what your saying in regards to Apple different than any other company? Every company makes mistakes and missteps and eventually fails unless they re-invent themselves or make new products/product lines.

You're assuming Apple stays static, and if that's true, then yes sooner or later they will fade. But that list proves nothing, especially since some them seem like a stretch or could to apply to any company.

Will people really blame Apple cuz AT&T sucks? Didn't happen when AT&T's network sucked, they blamed AT&T.

Maps has gotten bashed quite a bit, but it will improve and is already improving. And isn't this sort of the same thing as antenna gate? Big storm for a couple of months then more or less forgotten. Same thing will probably happen if Apple is able fix most of Maps problems.

Cosmetic blemishes - doesn't this apply to all consumer products? But how many other companies will let you continue using that item and then give you a new one later on when there's more stock?

In what way is a GS3 vs a GS2 that much different than a IP 5 vs 4s? An EVO LTE vs EVO 3d?

Does Apple ever bless third party cables? They want you to buy their own right? If you mean no 3rd party cables at all. That could be a problem, but it's still unknown if there's something in the lightning connector that would prevent 3rd party cables.

And Apple has been slowly consolidating. It started when they dropped "Computer" from their name, and ever since the iPod took off, they've been slowly, but surely, dismantling their computer business. Mac OS X is becoming more and more like iOS with every release. They already receive somewhere around 70% of all their revenue from iDevice sales, and most of the rest is from iTunes. Apple may manage to cling to life, selling things via iTunes, but it will not be anything that even remotely resembles the company it is today. There's also a possibility they manage to eek out an existence with their chip fabbing facilities, making ARM chips for other companies.

We also have the fact that for all his many faults, Jobs was very much an idea guy. As someone put it, he could take the same ingredients and somehow manage to make a better product. Pretty difficult to refute that based on the evidence all around. Now he's gone, and you've got someone who's an operations and logistics guy. If you want to know how to set up a manufacturing operation and supply chain in China, Tim Cook could probably be considered one of the preeminent experts in the field. When it comes to deciding what is or isn't a good idea for a new product... History would tend to say the odds are not in his favor.

Moving on... Yes, people will blame Apple for things that are AT&T's fault. It's not fair, it's not logical, but it can, will, and does happen all the time. If AT&T is going to restrict ONLY Apple's FaceTime, then people who care about that feature might decide to move to another phone and just use Skype.

Maps is just kind of the latest in a string of issues. I'm sure sooner or later it will get sorted out, but what about all those people who may have bought an iPhone 5, decided Maps sucked, and so returned it for an Android device? It might be a small percentage, but it's also a bunch of people who were briefly Apple customers, but then changed their minds. You keep thinking I'm making these large sweeping statements, and rather I'm talking about things nibbling around the edges.

The cosmetic blemishes is certainly not unique to Apple, but then Apple makes a huge deal out of presentation. In this particular case, they were hoisted by their own petard. People know they are paying a premium for Apple gear, and so they expect a premium product in return. When I bought my Gnex, I was expecting something a bit more industrial, function over form.

The comparison to the Galaxy S series is a bit specious for my taste. If Samsung ONLY made the Galaxy S series of phones, then, pardon the pun, it'd be an apples to apples comparison. However, Samsung has a rather diversified portfolio of products, just within its cell phone division. Apple has one, and only one, cell phone: the iPhone.

Finally, up until the iPhone 5, all you had was just a funny end on what was fundamentally a USB cable. Anyone could make one with relative ease. Admittedly, you'd be a fool to use a cable from some places, but that doesn't mean there weren't plenty of places that would make decent quality cables at a much more reasonable price.

So again, I would say this is just the point in time in which people will likely be saying Apple went off the rails. It will probably be a few more years yet -- around 2020 is my guess -- but it will happen. Let's not forget that around 2000 Apple was literally within about 6 months of insolvency, and it was Microsoft stepping in with a much needed infusion of cash that is responsible for Apple being around at all. Apple is not this scrappy company that manages to survive despite the odds some of you are trying to paint it as. Microsoft wanted a company they could point to in their anti-trust trial as a token example of competition, and it wouldn't do very well if that company then went bankrupt.

And just because I'm lazy... Mopetar: I'm not going to have dueling orphan sentences with you. After 2-3 messages, no one remembers what the context is, and your left with two morons talking to one another who don't know when to quit. I won't presume to speak for you, but that's not something I'm interested in.

 

[golem]

Moving on... Yes, people will blame Apple for things that are AT&T's fault. It's not fair, it's not logical, but it can, will, and does happen all the time. If AT&T is going to restrict ONLY Apple's FaceTime, then people who care about that feature might decide to move to another phone and just use Skype.

It's obviously an AT&T restriction, why would someone blame Apple? What's that chain of thought you would imagine someone going through that would would lead from AT&T blocking facetime to someone blaming Apple? How would moving to Android help? Android doesn't have facetime and any alternate program you would use for video chat on Android is probably just as available on IOS.

Maps is just kind of the latest in a string of issues. I'm sure sooner or later it will get sorted out, but what about all those people who may have bought an iPhone 5, decided Maps sucked, and so returned it for an Android device? It might be a small percentage, but it's also a bunch of people who were briefly Apple customers, but then changed their minds. You keep thinking I'm making these large sweeping statements, and rather I'm talking about things nibbling around the edges.

I don't disagree with your thought process on this. But you're thinking in a vacuum. You're assuming Apple makes mistakes and losses customer, but it's competitor's operate flawlessly and keep their's while taking some of Apples?

The cosmetic blemishes is certainly not unique to Apple, but then Apple makes a huge deal out of presentation. In this particular case, they were hoisted by their own petard. People know they are paying a premium for Apple gear, and so they expect a premium product in return. When I bought my Gnex, I was expecting something a bit more industrial, function over form.

But that's where their replacement policy comes in. Some people will be pissed at the blemishes, but some will be impressed with how far Apple is going to make it good.

The comparison to the Galaxy S series is a bit specious for my taste. If Samsung ONLY made the Galaxy S series of phones, then, pardon the pun, it'd be an apples to apples comparison. However, Samsung has a rather diversified portfolio of products, just within its cell phone division. Apple has one, and only one, cell phone: the iPhone.

Samsung makes does make a bunch of phones, but how many of them are flagship? For now, just the GS3. The GNote 2 is coming out but they might target slightly different audiences. So if you're moving from flagship to flagship, it is an apples to apples to comparison. If you're moving from Galaxy ACE to GS3 of course you would expect a bigger difference than GS2 to GS3. But that is not comparable to IP4 to Ip5.

Finally, up until the iPhone 5, all you had was just a funny end on what was fundamentally a USB cable. Anyone could make one with relative ease. Admittedly, you'd be a fool to use a cable from some places, but that doesn't mean there weren't plenty of places that would make decent quality cables at a much more reasonable price.

I have a Transformer Prime, it has a non standard changing cable. My friend has a Xoom that also has a non standard cable. Are Asus and Motorola going out of business soon too? At least with Apple's cable it will work across their mobile product lines. You can't say the same for my Transformer Prime cable.

 

[Mopetar]

And Apple has been slowly consolidating. It started when they dropped "Computer" from their name, and ever since the iPod took off, they've been slowly, but surely, dismantling their computer business. Mac OS X is becoming more and more like iOS with every release. They already receive somewhere around 70% of all their revenue from iDevice sales, and most of the rest is from iTunes. Apple may manage to cling to life, selling things via iTunes, but it will not be anything that even remotely resembles the company it is today. There's also a possibility they manage to eek out an existence with their chip fabbing facilities, making ARM chips for other companies.

So, what you're saying is that their iDevice business is just going to vanish? In once sentence you're talking about how they're moving their computer business to be more iOS-like, and in the next you're stating that that business just goes away. It doesn't make any sense.

You're also wrong about their revenues as iTunes does not make them a lot of money and Apple has stated many times that they don't make much of a profit from it as most of the revenue is used to cover expenses. I suggest actually looking at the data before making things up.

We also have the fact that for all his many faults, Jobs was very much an idea guy. As someone put it, he could take the same ingredients and somehow manage to make a better product. Pretty difficult to refute that based on the evidence all around. Now he's gone, and you've got someone who's an operations and logistics guy. If you want to know how to set up a manufacturing operation and supply chain in China, Tim Cook could probably be considered one of the preeminent experts in the field. When it comes to deciding what is or isn't a good idea for a new product... History would tend to say the odds are not in his favor.

Too bad Jobs probably didn't tell anyone at Apple about any future ideas he had or start up any projects related to them. It's also unfortunate that Apple has no one else that can come up with good ideas.

Moving on... Yes, people will blame Apple for things that are AT&T's fault. It's not fair, it's not logical, but it can, will, and does happen all the time. If AT&T is going to restrict ONLY Apple's FaceTime, then people who care about that feature might decide to move to another phone and just use Skype.

Most iOS users probably don't use FaceTime. I used it exactly once on my iPad and that was just to test it out. And your assertion that they'll just move to another phone lacks thought. Think about it. Someone can't use FaceTime but really want it, so they're going to switch to another phone that also can't use FaceTime? Why not just switch carriers or just use Skype on the phone that they have?

Maps is just kind of the latest in a string of issues. I'm sure sooner or later it will get sorted out, but what about all those people who may have bought an iPhone 5, decided Maps sucked, and so returned it for an Android device?

Probably not very many considering that the old maps app on iOS wasn't much better and lacked features like turn-by-turn and vector based map tiles and that it's not terribly difficult to just hop onto Google's online map application and use that.

It might be a small percentage, but it's also a bunch of people who were briefly Apple customers, but then changed their minds. You keep thinking I'm making these large sweeping statements, and rather I'm talking about things nibbling around the edges.

You're just presenting possibilities without any factual data to back it up. And you haven't considered the people who weren't Apple customers but now are because they were unsatisfied with whatever they were using before.

So again, I would say this is just the point in time in which people will likely be saying Apple went off the rails. It will probably be a few more years yet -- around 2020 is my guess -- but it will happen.

Weren't you just saying that Apple is a company desperately clinging to life like RIM and Nokia? But now they're going to be mostly fine for another 7 years? Please make up your mind about just how doomed Apple actually is.

 

[Fire&Blood]

Well my dislike for Apple gradually subsided and I think I became much more objective about them over time. I won't buy an idevice again because Android is a much better option for me but I can't find any substance to arguments being made that Apple is failing. They have way more traction than they actually aim for, they don't seem to care that they will eventually lose the prestige of being a nr.1 seller. Cheers in other camps may erupt when that time comes but I don't see why Apple should care.

 

[shortylickens]

I'm not sure about the tablet, but they never had a real dominance in smartphones. Right around the time they were stealing massive sales from Symbian and Blackberry, Android started getting ridiculously popular.

 

[Tom]

I'm not sure about the tablet, but they never had a real dominance in smartphones. Right around the time they were stealing massive sales from Symbian and Blackberry, Android started getting ridiculously popular.

Android's popularity was largely driven by being the only iphone like device on 2 of the 3 carriers, at least in the US.

Manufacturers like Samsung and HTC could copy most of the features of an iphone using Android as their OS.

Not that Android became popular for its own unique attributes.

Look at Samsungs ads. What are they really saying ? Look, here's an iphone, but with a bigger screen. Or, look, here's an iphone, but with NFS.

 

[Oyeve]

Android's popularity was largely driven by being the only iphone like device on 2 of the 3 carriers, at least in the US.

Manufacturers like Samsung and HTC could copy most of the features of an iphone using Android as their OS.

Not that Android became popular for its own unique attributes.

Look at Samsungs ads. What are they really saying ? Look, here's an iphone, but with a bigger screen. Or, look, here's an iphone, but with NFS.

No.

 

[zerocool84]

Android's popularity was largely driven by being the only iphone like device on 2 of the 3 carriers, at least in the US.

Manufacturers like Samsung and HTC could copy most of the features of an iphone using Android as their OS.

Not that Android became popular for its own unique attributes.

Look at Samsungs ads. What are they really saying ? Look, here's an iphone, but with a bigger screen. Or, look, here's an iphone, but with NFS.

Yet we don't see iPhone overtaking Android on those same carriers that have had an iPhone for the while.

 

[Mopetar]

Android's popularity was largely driven by being the only iphone like device on 2 of the 3 carriers, at least in the US.

If by "iPhone-like" you mean modern smartphone, than sure, I'd agree with you, but there are a lot of other factors.

The first is that for a long time, you had to pay at least $200 to get an iPhone with a contract, whereas there were a number of Android phones that were free with contract. This is a pretty big deal in the U.S. and allowed Android to reach segments of the market that wouldn't buy an iPhone. Additionally, there was no iPhone available for the pre-paid carriers for a long time, and even now I think it's only available for a small handful of them.

Not that Android became popular for its own unique attributes.

I would disagree to a certain extent. For certain market segments, Android is much more popular because of it's unique attributes (e.g. open source, can side-load apps, variety in hardware, etc.) but I think you're discounting other attributes of Android that make it popular (e.g. lower prices, wider availability, better maps, etc.) with the general public. Those things aren't tech features, but most consumers don't care about those features. To them it's a phone that can do a few additional things that they might find useful from time to time, like reading email or checking Facebook.

Yet we don't see iPhone overtaking Android on those same carriers that have had an iPhone for the while.

Actually, at least in the U.S., the iPhone has done well on the new carriers that it's been introduced to. Here's a report that shows the iPhone 4S doing quite well on Verizon and capturing over 50% of sales (even well after its release). Sprints numbers were also around 40%, but I can't find a detailed report that breaks their sales down.

It will be interesting to see how this has changed over the last quarter, though. Obviously the Galaxy S3 has been a smash hit and iPhone sales will probably dry up as people start holding off for the next model. I even recall a few stories from last month that the S3 was the top selling device for some carriers so I wouldn't be surprised if Apple's numbers were down by a fair amount.

 

[aaksheytalwar]

I was a big android fan till I got an iPad. Still loved android phones till my iPhone 4S. But the only things that android lacks and which are a deal breaker for me:

1. Apple doesn't lag. Nearly zero. Android sucks in this dept regardless of what people may train themselves to think. Gingerbread was the only usable android os. I have used many favors of ics and no to me it is too slow, no matter which rom, oced or not. I haven't tried jb tho and from videos I can tell that although better it doesn't even come close to ios.

2. A professional finish to everything. This is relatively less important to me.

Anyway, I will probably be buying both iPhone 5 and perhaps even galaxy s4 and will probably keep both at the same time. However if I have to choose one it will probably be iOS not because of the os but because of less lag.

Also, currently apple is in no danger. But we all that that its rigid rules will finally pave way for android and windows to be the major boys like with the desktops.

 

[WelshBloke]

I was a big android fan till I got an iPad. Still loved android phones till my iPhone 4S. But the only things that android lacks and which are a deal breaker for me:

1. Apple doesn't lag. Nearly zero. Android sucks in this dept regardless of what people may train themselves to think. Gingerbread was the only usable android os. I have used many favors of ics and no to me it is too slow, no matter which rom, oced or not. I haven't tried jb tho and from videos I can tell that although better it doesn't even come close to ios.

2. A professional finish to everything. This is relatively less important to me.

Anyway, I will probably be buying both iPhone 5 and perhaps even galaxy s4 and will probably keep both at the same time. However if I have to choose one it will probably be iOS not because of the os but because of less lag.

Also, currently apple is in no danger. But we all that that its rigid rules will finally pave way for android and windows to be the major boys like with the desktops.

I never understood the 'apple doesn't lag' thing.

Iphone 4 comes out, 'omg, it's so much faster. Really smooth'
Iphone 4s comes out, 'omg, it's so much faster. Really smooth'
Iphone 5 comes out, 'omg, it's so much faster. Really smooth'

If the iphone 4 was so smooth how can you tell that the others are faster?

 

[jpeyton]

I never understood the 'apple doesn't lag' thing.

Iphone 4 comes out, 'omg, it's so much faster. Really smooth'
Iphone 4s comes out, 'omg, it's so much faster. Really smooth'
Iphone 5 comes out, 'omg, it's so much faster. Really smooth'

If the iphone 4 was so smooth how can you tell that the others are faster?

iPhones are "smoother" because of mandatory transition animations and heavy frame buffering. The trade-off is input lag for smoothness sake.

Project Butter is Google's attempt at doing the same. Google now understands that the end user doesn't mind a trading off a faster transition with dropped animation frames for a short delay (input lag) followed by a smoother transition animation.

That's "smoothness" in its entirety. It's prettier but it doesn't get you from point A to point B any faster.

 

[WelshBloke]

iPhones are "smoother" because of mandatory transition animations and heavy frame buffering. The trade-off is input lag for smoothness sake. Project Butter is Google's attempt at doing the same.

Yeah but all iPhones use that and, apparently, all iPhones don't lag.

So how can people tell newer iPhones are faster?

 

[ThermalShark]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-should-pull-the-plug-on-the-iphone

We still haven't seen Apple step out from Job's shadow. I have a feeling that Jobs made Cook promise to dump Google Maps asap, I can't prove that, but Apple has been gearing up to do so for some time.

I have heard/read some rumors of new products coming from Apple, dunno if they're true/real, but we shall see.

I don't think any of us are so stupid as to say Apple will rule tech forever, and I suspect the logarithmic growth we've seen won't continue.

As far as future products, I think we'll see the following:

Continued refinement of the iPhone/iPad/iPod lines, I don't think we'll see any massive disruption, and I suspect Apple will cede marketshare to other OS's/devices, Windows Surface devices and obviously Android come to mind immediately, and honestly, I wouldn't count RIM down and out, by any stretch, Amazon and it's forked Android devices, (and strangely enough, it's e readers, my Paperwhite Kindle is like a tablet from a bizarro universe, add color eventually and a faster refresh rate to e ink displays and it's an interesting option)

I think we'll be using a "4th screen" soon, a wearable extension of our cell phones on our wrists, and one of the things I've heard of is Apple working on a device like it. I don't want to have to pull out a cell phone all the time to read texts and emails (how many times a day are we doing this?), and a wrist mounted BT connected display would be uber cool and make me feel like I'm living in the future

Also, everyone discounts overseas sales, RIM's got a massive following in some countries, with crazy stuff like popular ballads reerencing BB's, LOL, and Apple has a similar following, China's a massive market and Apple stuff sells well there, with low end legacy phones that are near appropriately priced for that market, as well as high end offerings...

We shall see, the best thing is that with the intense competition in the sector, we all get some very cool devices.

 

[Bateluer]

Apple doesn't lag. Nearly zero. Android sucks in this dept regardless of what people may train themselves to think. Gingerbread was the only usable android os. I have used many favors of ics and no to me it is too slow, no matter which rom, oced or not. I haven't tried jb tho and from videos I can tell that although better it doesn't even come close to ios.

I think you've just thrown any credibility out the window, or you've only use a single Android device. Egads, that doesn't even make sense.





Seems like every thread on this boils down to a single thing, UI lag. And with ICS/JB, the UI lag on Android is so miniscule that it barely registers. If this is the only argument the iOS crowd can come up with these days, then Apple is well into its decline. The Reality Distortion Field will protect Apple for a while, but as it shrinks, there will be less room in it and more users will have to leave.

 

[jpeyton]

Also, everyone discounts overseas sales, RIM's got a massive following in some countries, with crazy stuff like popular ballads reerencing BB's, LOL, and Apple has a similar following, China's a massive market and Apple stuff sells well there, with low end legacy phones that are near appropriately priced for that market, as well as high end offerings...

Apple's share of China and India will be miniscule. Both countries have gargantuan mobile markets, and the majority of users will adopt low cost devices.

 

[shortylickens]

iPhones are "smoother" because of mandatory transition animations and heavy frame buffering. The trade-off is input lag for smoothness sake.

Project Butter is Google's attempt at doing the same. Google now understands that the end user doesn't mind a trading off a faster transition with dropped animation frames for a short delay (input lag) followed by a smoother transition animation.

That's "smoothness" in its entirety. It's prettier but it doesn't get you from point A to point B any faster.

I have to admit though, the G1 was so full of hiccups I actually disliked the initial Android experience. I turned it back in and waited a year or so for the Droid.
2.3 and later on good hardware is so much more pleasant. iOS lost its main advantage.

 

[ThermalShark]

And while consumers don't read tech blogs, they do read Consumer Reports:

http://news.consumerreports.org/electronics/2012/10/apple-iphone-5-test-results.html

The Apple iPhone 5 is among the best smart phones in our Ratings and the best iPhone yet, our completed tests confirm. They also conclude that despite the widespread criticism it has received, Apple's new Maps app, available on the iPhone 5 and other iPhones, is competent enough, even if it falls short of what's available for free on many other phones.

The whole maps thing is overblown, I've had Google Maps route me in circles many times, a year from now, I suspect Apple's maps/navigation will be nearly equal to Google's

 

[ThermalShark]

Apple's share of China and India will be miniscule. Both countries have gargantuan mobile markets, and the majority of users will adopt low cost devices.

Apple doesn't need massive sales figures or marketshare in these markets to make a ton of cash.

Anyway, these discussions are sort of dumb, and I find people's intense loyalty to brands, OS's rather curious.

I personally think Samsung is an abhorrent company, but I have a rooted and rommed S3 as my daily driver, and a handful of devices with pretty much all of the OS's.