Is the surge working? *Update*

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: tomywishbone
Update from Iraq: I maintain my position that the surge is in fact working... working to the benefit of the insurgents.

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
tomy, when March is over we can look at its death toll compared to previous months and then we can make a more informed opinion on how the surge is going.

Quoting one story about one or two events does not prove the surge is a failure.

You have to see the overall picture first.

We've seen your big story from your hero and it's called a lie.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
tomy, when March is over we can look at its death toll compared to previous months and then we can make a more informed opinion on how the surge is going.

Quoting one story about one or two events does not prove the surge is a failure. You have to see the overall picture first.

I don't agree that even then we'll have an accurate perspective. It's already apparent that the dropoff in civilian casualties from January to February will have been greater than from February to March. All three months will be far higher than their equivalents a year earlier, which in turn were far higher than in 2005. IF the surge is effective I don't think it can be apparent until we are a few months out. In the meantime, however, the past three days have been horrific by any standard - the massacre of children on Saturday was particularly awful.

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I read in last weeks Newsweek that the violence in Baghdad was now about a quarter of what it was pre-surge, yet another sign that surge is working so far.

Hmm. I'm not so sure of your figures. The following site

Casualties

has Coalition casualties by day since the Iraqi elections took place. I'm note sure exactly when the surge began, but if I count Coalition casualties for the 31 days of December 2006, there were 115. For the latest 31-day period (2/18 through 3/20), there were 87. That's an improvement, but only about 24%, not the 75% you cite.

And these figures are highly variable. For the 31 days from 10/31 to 11/30, there were at total of 79 Coalition casualties.

Note also (here Iraqi totals - third table down the page) that total Iraqi deaths (Security forces and civilian) are 1018 for the first 20 days of March. That extrapolates to 1578 for 31 days, versus 1752 for all of December - a 10% drop. And, again, these number vary a lot. Iraqi deaths were 1539 in October, down dramatically from 3539 in September - a large variation that occurred long before the surge.

Oh, yeah, the surge is working. The totals are in from March. Here's the data from the second link I included above:

Iraqi Security Forces and Civilian Deaths
Period Total

Mar-07 1889
Feb-07 1531
Jan-07 1802
Dec-06 1752
Nov-06 1864
Oct-06 1539
Sep-06 3539

Notice that the March total is the highest in six months.