Zodiark1593
Platinum Member
- Oct 21, 2012
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For the bolded part: Looking at the people I know, I'd consider a tenth to be optimistic.Absolutely, but what fraction of the market is that, really? I'd wager that the majority of consumers only use tablets or PCs for consumption.
Desktops will always have a place as a tool for business, technology, and media creation, but the actual number of people who do those things is probably less than a third (and I'm being generous) of the American population. Furthermore, of those that do use the computer as a tool, the vast majority aren't doing processor-intensive tasks, and could easily have survived with a computer from a decade ago. As a result, it will be the phone/tablet market that drives technological development in the future, and whether Intel has a stranglehold on the desktop market will be less important to most consumers.
Here's my take on it though. The desktop in the future will provide an in-between for the inexpensive tablet/smartphone segment, and the uber-expensive server computers. While the mobile segment will most likely destroy the bargin-bin desktop segment (where users considering either option need relatively little CPU power) I predict that the mid-end and high-end desktop segments will remain steady, where such users need more flexibility, and much greater compute power without spending an arm and two legs.
Now, the part I'm quite iffy about (as lack of competition causes stagnation). Because there is such an abundance of programs and games that run only on x86, a full migration to a new architecture(s) will be a very slow and painful process for everyone that uses such programs (PC gamers will especially be feeling the pain as older games will likely be left behind). Realistically, unless we have an architecture that can emulate x86 code especially fast, It's doubtful Intel's position on the desktop market will change anytime soon. A particularly bad scenario could be a gamer needing multiple PCs (of differing architectures) to play both older and newer games alike. (I can easily play games from the 1990s on my Nehalem-based laptop, quite a nice advantage with PC gaming)
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