Is VWELX still the 'good' Vanguard fund?

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geecee

Platinum Member
Jan 14, 2003
2,383
43
91
I just pulled up the Morningstar report for Wellington and looked at it a little more carefully.

Do you realize Wellington is a balanced fund, that seems to always hold a mix of stocks and bonds?

Bonds are probably at the tail end of a 30 year bull market and may produce dismal results going forward. And as a long term investor, you should be looking for funds that are pure stock plays, not balanced or mixed allocation funds. Greater volatility, but over time, stocks >> bonds > cash. Don't have up to date actual numbers, but ballpark stocks 8 - 10% / year (average annual return) vs. bonds 5 - 6% vs cash 2 - 3%. Over time, not many even very good / great mutual funds will be able to beat market (average annual return) by 2 or 3%. Unless you have access to really high quality hedge funds that can produce 20% average annual return, VTSMX is going to be very, very hard to beat over very extended periods of time, and particularly in taxable accounts.

VTSMX is extremely aggressive in the way a true long term investor should want (i. e. strategic asset allocation; always over 99% actually allocated in stocks; actively managed funds usually have 5 - 10% cash and that will be a drag over time).

Wellington or something like Dodge and Cox Balanced (DODBX - http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/f.aspx?t=dodbx) are types of funds you might add when you reach age 50, are starting to get closer to retirement, and can't stand short term losses or volatility that you may not be able to make up before you have to actually start drawing down those funds.

Tyranny of Compound Interest: http://books.google.com/books?id=ac...nepage&q=tyranny of compound interest&f=false
There is some truth in what mshan is saying here, especially if you consider that interest rates are on the rise, as evidenced by the ECB move announced last week, and the Fed's recent inflation warnings. Going all equity is generally, as he suggests, best for long term returns, but it really depends on YOUR stomach for volatility. I still think a Target fund like (2050+) might be the best way to go, but he makes some good points here. If you're relatively young, you probably don't want to go with the 65/35 breakdown that Wellington is usually at.
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,967
19
81
I am not looking for a volatile fund with this money so VWELX is a better placement. If I do start to play with Vanguard more I may reallocate it.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
VFINX in past represented 70% of total U. S. stock market capitalization.

VTSMX give you exposure to other 30% too (midcaps and small caps), but gives you even more diversification, lower portfolio turnover, and greater tax efficiency.

Changes in SP500 index which may make tracking funds buy or sell particular stock would not require same buying or selling in total market index because company is still part of total stock market in U.S. Only changes would be companies that are delisted from stock market or new companies entering stock market. I think almost all of VTSMX distributions will be dividends, where as SP500 may churn out slightly capital gains from year to year as S & P changes makeup up of their SP500 index.

VTSMX is a great core investment for taxable account targeted at retirement, especially if you draw down mandatory distributions from tax deferred accounts first and let VTSMX compound almost tax free (because of it's I think 99% tax efficiency) for say first 10 or more years of retirement, giving you the growth component you will need to have your overall portfolio still keep up with inflation. Even if you plan to retire in 30 years, VTSMX in a taxable account can essentially compound tax free for 40 years or more if you are wise in your overall portfolio composition and planning. And you can adjust holdings in tax deferred accounts to be less aggressive (e. g. balanced or full bond funds) at say age 50 when you are getting closer to retirement and your risk tolerance has gone down.

International exposure, from a long term perspective, only increases risk adjusted returns of overall portfolio, not necessarily increasing absolute returns. Plus lots of multi-national us companies in SP500 and Total Stock Market index will get good share of their earnings going forward from emerging markets, so you may be getting exposure you don't think.

Remember that a broad market index is highly diversified, so there will be times when a particular sector is hot where it will seem to "lag" (and lag very badly because it owns whole stock market, not just the hot sector a sector fund can concentrate on) over the short term. But most likely it will close that gap and actually beat most funds over extended periods of time because of reasons I mentioned above (again, I am talking in terms of decades, not years).

Instead of trying to beat the market at any given time on any given day, VTSMX just takes what the market gives you, and in the process, over very extended periods of time (again, decades, not years), it will beat the vast majority of actively managed mutual funds out there.

A few links I found by googling for how many mutual funds beat index after 20 years:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/22stra.html


Over a 25-year period ending in 2009, about 25% of the surviving actively managed general equity funds outperformed the Vanguard 500 Index Fund. The result dropped to about 12% after adjusting for all the terminated funds during the period. This 12% result was exactly the number predicted by the simulation model.

Active fund investors have strong headwinds against them. The probability of selecting a winning fund is low; the average excess payout for guessing right doesn't compensate investors for the shortfall from guessing wrong; owning several active funds reduces the probability a portfolio will outperform an all index fund portfolio; and the longer those active funds are held the worse it gets.

That's a lot of headwind for investors to overcome!

Put in perspective, dedicated active fund investors can look forward to a 99% probability their portfolio will underperform an all index fund portfolio over their lifetime.

That's an almost guaranteed losing bet that even the most ardent gambler would avoid.

http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/22/mu...anagement-personal-finance-indexer-ferri.html
VTSMX, VTMSX, VTSMX! (not all index funds are created equally; you have to know who fund manager is (you don't want to have to sell and buy another index fund after say 20 years when current fund manager suddenly becomes shareholder unfriendly and jacks expense ratio to make more money for themselves), what expense ratio is, and what specific index is tracked). As long as Vanguard holds to Bogle's vision, VTSMX seems like best choice for long-term index investor, especially in taxable account (Vanguard is always decreasing expense ratio as assets grow, and they automatically convert you to Admiral Shares, without tax consequences, once your holding reaches minimum threshold).




 
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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
I am not looking for a volatile fund with this money so VWELX is a better placement. If I do start to play with Vanguard more I may reallocate it.

jesus christ.. just throw it all into citibank and get it over with.

it's too big to fail,like GM. and look at how gm rose from it's ashes
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VWELX#chart1:symbol=vwelx;range=my;compare=^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

VWELX: (since about 1987, max setting on that interactive chart): less than 100% total appreciation over last 24 years or so

SP500: over 350% total appreciation over last 24 years (even with the stock market crash of 2008, if you were a true long-term buy and holder investor, you are still doing well from a 20+ year hindsight perspective)

You are leaving a lot of money on the table, you just don't know it yet.

And even if you truly want a lower volatility mutual fund, there are better choices than VWELX, going forward, than a true balanced fund that has to keep 30 - 40% in the bond market at all time. Perhaps do some research on capital preservation or even growth and income type stock mutual funds.
 
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alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,967
19
81
I will check it out over the next few months...I am more than likely going to break it up into four stock choices I have once I free up the time to manage my own money.
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,967
19
81
I decided to go with VTSAX...I am tracking it against WELX and it's out performing it.

I am up a few hundred bux on a $11k investment already.

Anyone know about Hartford Funds, I am going into this for my 401K contribution (50% matched): AMERICAN FUNDS EUROPACIFIC-R3

Also we have an option this year to do ROTH so we can take the tax hit now...I am 40, don't know if its the smarter move or not.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
Admiral shares of Vanguard index funds ARE available - for 10 years. Only $10k to get in for some funds.
Where are they available for trade besides Vanguard?
If the people on Bogleheads say they're not available, then they are not.
 
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lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
You have to go through Vanguard. Why is this a problem?
It's not.
I mentioned that you can't get Admiral Index fund shares through Wells Fargo(Wells Trade) and he quoted me to say I am wrong.

I want him to explain his reasoning. He has to prove that:
a.) You can indeed buy Vanguard Admiral Index fund shares at Wells Fargo(Wells Trade). I know this is absolutely false because I have an account there and it cannot be done. 100% chance it is.
b.) You can buy Vanguard Admiral Index fund shares at other brokers besides Vanguard. I'm sure this is false as well. 100% chance it is.

FYI, here is my original post he quoted.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=31532978&postcount=12
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,967
19
81
It's not.
I mentioned that you can't get Admiral Index fund shares through Wells Fargo(Wells Trade) and he quoted me to say I am wrong.

I want him to explain his reasoning. He has to prove that:
a.) You can indeed buy Vanguard Admiral Index fund shares at Wells Fargo(Wells Trade). I know this is absolutely false because I have an account there and it cannot be done. 100% chance it is.
b.) You can buy Vanguard Admiral Index fund shares at other brokers besides Vanguard. I'm sure this is false as well. 100% chance it is.

FYI, here is my original post he quoted.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=31532978&postcount=12

ok gotcha now.

AFAIK there are no brokerages selling their internal REAL discounted shares outside them.

I am sure like the mortgage industry internal discounting will be sued over eventually.
 

alrocky

Golden Member
Jan 22, 2001
1,771
0
0
Can you buy Admiral Shares if you use a 3rd party brokerage? For example. I use Scottrade, and I have far more than $10k invested in various Vanguard funds. But those were accumulated over time. Can I convert them somehow to Admiral Shares?

You can do an "In-Kind Account Transfer" from your brokerage to Vanguard and then convert to Admiral shares. If your brokerage allows you may be able to convert your Vanguard Investor shares to the corresponding ETF and thus receive the lower (same as Admiral share) expense ratio.


lothar, I read: "Admiral shares of Vanguard index funds are not available" as an absolute and not as you meant: "...not available at a brokerage."
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
You can do an "In-Kind Account Transfer" from your brokerage to Vanguard and then convert to Admiral shares. If your brokerage allows you may be able to convert your Vanguard Investor shares to the corresponding ETF and thus receive the lower (same as Admiral share) expense ratio.
Wells Fargo(Wells Trade) does this for free.

lothar, I read: "Admiral shares of Vanguard index funds are not available" as an absolute and not as you meant: "...not available at a brokerage."
Fair enough.
 

edro

Lifer
Apr 5, 2002
24,328
68
91
I have 50% in VWELX and 50% in VFORX (2040 retirement blend).

Does Vanguard charge you to change funds? I should probably keep track of other possible funds and switch when the time looks right. (or not)
 

Ionizer86

Diamond Member
Jun 20, 2001
5,292
0
76
I decided to go with VTSAX...I am tracking it against WELX and it's out performing it.

I am up a few hundred bux on a $11k investment already.
Of course Total Stock Market should outperform Wellington when the market is up. It's 100% stock instead of 65% stock. Wait until the markets are down however, and Total Stock Market's downswings will also be amplified compared to Total Stock Market.

Anyone know about Hartford Funds, I am going into this for my 401K contribution (50% matched): AMERICAN FUNDS EUROPACIFIC-R3
What is the expense ratio? What are the lowest expense ratio funds in your 401k? If you don't have anything cheaper, then this may be a "not terrible" way of getting international equity. This is an American Fund, not a Hartford fund, but since your 401k is run by Hartford, it's likely that most of the options are going to be overpriced. Try the Bogleheads.org forum if you are looking for detailed investment feedback.

I have 50% in VWELX and 50% in VFORX (2040 retirement blend).

Does Vanguard charge you to change funds? I should probably keep track of other possible funds and switch when the time looks right. (or not)
Most funds don't cost anything to switch into/out of. Some funds have small purchase and redemption fees (FTSE Small Cap Intl, Emerging Markets index, etc) while other funds have redemption fees only if you sell within 60 days (Total Intl Stock Market). With that said, how come you are using both Wellington and TR 2040? The TR funds have broader diversification since they include total stock, bond, and international stock funds. Thus, given the same stock/bond ratio, they should (theoretically) deliver less volatility for a given expected return when compared to Wellington.
 

edro

Lifer
Apr 5, 2002
24,328
68
91
With that said, how come you are using both Wellington and TR 2040? The TR funds have broader diversification since they include total stock, bond, and international stock funds. Thus, given the same stock/bond ratio, they should (theoretically) deliver less volatility for a given expected return when compared to Wellington.
Well that is simple... I am retarded.

I figured diversifying among different fund managers would be good?
 

Ionizer86

Diamond Member
Jun 20, 2001
5,292
0
76
I figured diversifying among different fund managers would be good?
You can if you want to, but the options may be limited (or have high minimums) with certain providers. I'm not too afraid of using Vanguard for most of my stuff. The funds own the Vanguard Group rather than vice versa, so Vanguard can't really become bankrupt per se. Even if it does, the assets themselves are held at JP Morgan Chase, and the auditing is done by PwC.

Some breakdown on mutual fund families:
Schwab: a few decent equity funds. Bond funds are all overpriced at 0.55% or so.
Fidelity: some decent equity and bond funds, but they have a high 10k min. Also, their international fund is missing emerging markets.
Vanguard: has a low cost fund for almost everything, including balanced and lifecycle funds. If you want to get fancy, you can also buy subsets of asset classes (small caps, large value, etc).
 

alrocky

Golden Member
Jan 22, 2001
1,771
0
0
I have 50% in VWELX and 50% in VFORX.

I figured diversifying among different fund managers would be good?
You're joking, yes? You want to diversify among asset classes. Are you at least holding Wellington in a tax advantaged (IRA / 401k) account? It spits out way too much in dividends (and only ~50% qualified dividends) to hold in a taxable account. Plug VWELX at Morningstar > Tax: it's 5 and 10 year Tax Cost Ratio is over 1%.

AMERICAN FUNDS EUROPACIFIC-R3
What's the 5 letter ticker? I see a EuroPacific Gr A AEPGX @ M*
 

alkemyst

No Lifer
Feb 13, 2001
83,967
19
81
Comes up as the first hit on google with just "AMERICAN FUNDS EUROPACIFIC-R3"

but I guess if you need it RERCX
 

ichy

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2006
6,940
8
81
jesus christ.. just throw it all into citibank and get it over with.

it's too big to fail,like GM. and look at how gm rose from it's ashes

Lol, GM may have survived but its original shareholders were wiped out.
 
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