Isaac... part deux. Or is it part trois? Guess who found his way back to the GOMEX

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dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Let's see... you called it a hurricane yesterday at 4pm. It's 20 hours later and still NOT a hurricane. Everyone knows it's going to become a hurricane. You'll get it right sooner or later.

My wife had the weather channel on a little while ago. Holy shit, it's amazing how much the media is hoping for this to become a Katrina II. It's not. Katrina had 185 mph winds at its peak; this has 70mph winds. Katrina's pressure reached almost 900; this is still above 980. And more importantly, Katrina had a HUGE storm surge that this one will not. LOL at the comparison; but that comparison is almost non-stop on television (and a couple people in this thread have made that comparison.)

This one won't have super-destructive winds. The problem with this one will be the flash flooding. Hey, they prayed for rain; be careful what you wish for!

Woa cowboy

No two storms are alike just like snowflakes.

It's a big one at 525 miles across so taking time for the pinwheel to spin up.
 

Rubycon

Madame President
Aug 10, 2005
17,768
485
126
Let's see... you called it a hurricane yesterday at 4pm. It's 20 hours later and still NOT a hurricane. Everyone knows it's going to become a hurricane. You'll get it right sooner or later.

My wife had the weather channel on a little while ago. Holy shit, it's amazing how much the media is hoping for this to become a Katrina II. It's not. Katrina had 185 mph winds at its peak; this has 70mph winds. Katrina's pressure reached almost 900; this is still above 980. And more importantly, Katrina had a HUGE storm surge that this one will not. LOL at the comparison; but that comparison is almost non-stop on television (and a couple people in this thread have made that comparison.)

This one won't have super-destructive winds. The problem with this one will be the flash flooding. Hey, they prayed for rain; be careful what you wish for!

Katrina peaked at 185 but was closer to a 120mph storm at landfall. Of course the real measure of power is integrated kinetic energy (IKE) and when a storm is that huge that's what counts. With this system its coverage is large which is bad for coastal communities due to the large area of storm surge. Fortunately it's not a tightly wrapped system so explosive strengthening like we saw with Charley in 2004 and Opal in 1995 is unlikely.

Yes the media is going to hype this because it's an election year and yes because people like to mess with things like fuel prices. Most of the rigs that were destroyed/damaged from Katrina and Rita were rebuilt with hardware designed to withstand catastrophic hurricane winds of at least Category 4 strength. So while they shut down and evac the platforms for this event a long term shutdown is not expected due to storm damage from this system.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,591
5
0
Closed circulation with dropping pressure and at least 5 feeder bands stretching out 400 miles and still not calling it.

They are a strange bunch down there in Coral Gables.

Kinda like you trying to foster off a tropical depression as a named storm.

You have a massive rain storm here that might grow into a Cat 1.

It is not an organized or compact eye.
 

DrPizza

Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
Mar 5, 2001
49,606
166
111
www.slatebrookfarm.com
185mph winds for a while, then relatively rapidly dropping to 120mph winds shortly before landfall is going to pack a hell of a lot more of a punch with the storm surge than a hurricane with a max 120mph winds reached just before landfall will. Storm surge is generally the biggest killer, and something that's not really factored into whether it's a cat 1 hurricane or cat 3 hurricane.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Kinda like you trying to foster off a tropical depression as a named storm.

You have a massive rain storm here that might grow into a Cat 1.

It is not an organized or compact eye.

There have been un-named systems that have dumped a ton more rain than even named Hurricanes and caused a lot more damage.

I propose the McOwen scale. Much more accurate like the Fujita.
 

Rubycon

Madame President
Aug 10, 2005
17,768
485
126
185mph winds for a while, then relatively rapidly dropping to 120mph winds shortly before landfall is going to pack a hell of a lot more of a punch with the storm surge than a hurricane with a max 120mph winds reached just before landfall will. Storm surge is generally the biggest killer, and something that's not really factored into whether it's a cat 1 hurricane or cat 3 hurricane.

That is why Saffir-Simpson is outdated. IKE is much more realistic to tell us what kind of damage is going to be done. It's also much more useful for those at sea that have to deal with these effects for longer and much further away from the eye.
 

CPA

Elite Member
Nov 19, 2001
30,322
4
0
So, has Louisiana or The Feds called for an evacuation yet? If not, why? If Katrina Part II happens will Kanye West get on TV and say "Obama hates black people"?
 

Xenon

Senior member
Oct 16, 1999
773
12
81
So, has Louisiana or The Feds called for an evacuation yet? If not, why? If Katrina Part II happens will Kanye West get on TV and say "Obama hates black people"?

Why is that comment still worthy of bringing up after all these years? It was an emotional ENTERTAINER making a stupid comment. Imo it reveals quite a bit about your own character.
 

Xenon

Senior member
Oct 16, 1999
773
12
81
Katrina and in general the year 2005 was probably once in a lifetime. Katrina traversed some extremely warm waters while in the GoM. Those warm waters do not exist in the gulf this season. This is part of the reasons why the NHC has been very conservative in their intensity forecast. Also the fact that the circulations has been very large reduces the possibility of rapid intensification.

This is still a very dangerous storm. Florida is currently experiencing flooding rains and Isaac is expected to slow down even further as it approaches SE LA. There could be some serious flooding with this.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
So, has Louisiana or The Feds called for an evacuation yet?

If not, why?

No, people outside of the flood protection levees have been ordered to evacuate.

Those on the inside have been told to shelter in their homes.

Why?

They have been assured by the Army Corp of Engineers that the $15 billion they put in construction of new flood gates and pumps will be able to keep up.

We will see.
 

GagHalfrunt

Lifer
Apr 19, 2001
25,297
2,001
126
Yes the media is going to hype this because it's an election year and yes because people like to mess with things like fuel prices. Most of the rigs that were destroyed/damaged from Katrina and Rita were rebuilt with hardware designed to withstand catastrophic hurricane winds of at least Category 4 strength. So while they shut down and evac the platforms for this event a long term shutdown is not expected due to storm damage from this system.

No, the media is going to hype this because that's what gets ratings. Weather is a HUGE part of the news ratings and bad weather is an even bigger part. People do not turn on the news to hear about the local city government fixing roads or to learn about hero firefighters saving a kitten from a tree. They watch news for the same reason people watch NASCAR and hockey. It's all about the carnage. They'll milk this storm for all its worth because until its over its the biggest story they've got.
 

CPA

Elite Member
Nov 19, 2001
30,322
4
0
Why is that comment still worthy of bringing up after all these years? It was an emotional ENTERTAINER making a stupid comment. Imo it reveals quite a bit about your own character.

Oh please. First off, levity, learn it. Second off, it was more than an emotional entertainer making a stupid comment. Bush got hammered, unjustifiably so, for the response.

My main question is why hasn't there been a call for evacuations yet?
 

CPA

Elite Member
Nov 19, 2001
30,322
4
0
Katrina and in general the year 2005 was probably once in a lifetime. Katrina traversed some extremely warm waters while in the GoM. Those warm waters do not exist in the gulf this season. This is part of the reasons why the NHC has been very conservative in their intensity forecast. Also the fact that the circulations has been very large reduces the possibility of rapid intensification.

This is still a very dangerous storm. Florida is currently experiencing flooding rains and Isaac is expected to slow down even further as it approaches SE LA. There could be some serious flooding with this.

And it was the flooding that got NOLA. NOLA basically sits below sea level. It won't take a level 5 hurricane to cause similar havoc as Katrina.
 

JoeyP

Senior member
Aug 2, 2012
386
2
0
My main question is why hasn't there been a call for evacuations yet?
People in general need to learn that you don't need to wait for some Authority to tell you to evacuate. In lieu of Official Notification, evaluate the conditions against your tolerance for risk, and make your own decision.
 

DrPizza

Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
Mar 5, 2001
49,606
166
111
www.slatebrookfarm.com
The media has been attempting to make a comparison to Katrina. I wonder if Gustav would be a better comparison? Also, it looks like it's going to move pretty slowly once it makes landfall... flooding is going to be a major issue.

edit: and Dave, 23 minutes until they officially call it a hurricane.
(At the 5pm update.)
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Or not. Looks like it's still Tropical Storm Isaac.

They said winds at 70

It shrunk in size too because the rain band that was over Florida looks like it de-coupled from the storm.

That allowed it to jog to the west some.

Bay St Louis can breathe a sigh of relief but it looks like can go right up through the heart of Lake Ponchartrain and the river.
 

ZOOYUKA

Platinum Member
Jan 24, 2005
2,475
0
0
No, the media is going to hype this because that's what gets ratings. Weather is a HUGE part of the news ratings and bad weather is an even bigger part. People do not turn on the news to hear about the local city government fixing roads or to learn about hero firefighters saving a kitten from a tree. They watch news for the same reason people watch NASCAR and hockey. It's all about the carnage. They'll milk this storm for all its worth because until its over its the biggest story they've got.

I'm convinced that everytime Jim Cantore is covering a hurricane, someone is off camera throwing shit at him to try and boost the entertainment value.
 
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