***Israel Planning Tactical Nuclear Attack***

[jackschmittusa]

Everybody keeps mentioning F-16s. While I don't see Isreal doing a nuke strike anyway, if they were to do so, I would bet on them using their variant of the F15E. Not only is it of greater range and payload, but twin-engined. I can't see them risking a nuke on a single engine aircraft for a pre-emptive strike. A simple engine failure would not only lose the nuke (one of only a few), but might place it in the hands of an adversary for eximination. If used as a desperate last measure, they might deliver it with anything; but in the scenerio we are talking about here, I can't see them using a short range, single engine airtcraft.

 

[Jhhnn]

Sorry 'bout that, GamingphrEEk.

You're the one who claimed that the Israelis are our "Allies"- which is simple disinformation. Friends? We've been their friend, which is not to say that they've actually returned the favor. They need to be brought to heel before they do anything really stupid, like attacking Iran- or disowned, if only to protect ourselves from their ongoing "wag the dog" influence on American politics. Kneejerk support for any Israeli action is thoroughly ingrained in the popular sentiment of the US, quite by design, even when such support runs counter to our own interests.

As I pointed out, American complicity would be necessary for any effective Israeli strike against Iran. Our control of the approach routes for any such attack are total and *obvious*, in the extreme. American radar sweeps the airspace over Turkey, Iraq, KSA, and all the way out to Diego Garcia in the Indian ocean.

Make no mistake about it, attacking Iran while they are in full compliance with international agreements is not in our interests, particularly on behalf of a nation who's in violation of numerous UN resolutions... Allowing it to happen or doing it ourselves is a fool's move- but that wouldn't be anything new for our delusional neocon leadership, now would it?

 

[jlmadyson]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: tomywishbone
If a rag-tag bunch of cab drivers & goat herders can stand toe-to-toe with the strongest war machine in the world, I'm pretty sure Iran would stomp the matzah balls out of Israel.

Edit: If Israel were to nuke Tehran, Moscow would vaporize Tel Aviv.

Russia wouldn't dare intervene in the war with the full US might concentrated there and Israel which can be unpredictable and dangerous.

I don't know man that's where I kind of differ a bit. I think even a quick nuclear hit taking out some of Iran's facilities could potentially set the stage for a full scale world war. Scary for certain, but who really knows the implications of such actions.

 

[ProfJohn]

All you people and your ?proxy? war BS.

Remember that Iranian missile launched by Hezbollah during the Israel-Hezbollah war?
Did a bunch of rag-tag terrorists assemble an advance anti-surface missile from parts they got at Wal-Mart? Of course not! Iran gave them the missile.
Iran has been supplying Hezbollah for years.
Israel has more than enough justification to take some type of action against Iran.

Again I say that Iran would be stupid to respond to an Israeli attack by attacking the US.
Sure they can launch lots of missiles at the green zone and other US bases. But our retaliation would be MASSIVE. We do not have to invade Iran to do a ton of damage to them.

As far as the nuke opening Pandora?s box. Since these would be underground bunker buster bombs I doubt we would see other countries decide that they can now use tactical nukes in battles. I highly doubt anyone would look at Israel?s action and decide that the use of nukes is now acceptable, except perhaps North Korea, but they are crazy anyway.

The most likely outcome would be a world out cry, some UN resolutions condemning Israel and then the world would go about life.

Perhaps Iran responds to an attack by launching medium range missiles at Israel. This could create a messy situation as it would be hard to Israel to respond, other than launching missiles back etc. But I highly doubt a strike aimed at Iran?s nuke facilities brings about a large scale war.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: jlmadyson
I don't know man that's where I kind of differ a bit. I think even a quick nuclear hit taking out some of Iran's facilities could potentially set the stage for a full scale world war. Scary for certain, but who really knows the implications of such actions.

Explain how a limited strike leads to a full scale world war please.
Specifically addressing the following:
1. What happens after the strike that causes the war to escalate.
2. How does anyone outside of Israel, Iran or the US/UK get drawn into the war.
3. Why would any country want to get into a war with the US because of actions taken against Iran?

In case you are not old enough to remember I will remind you that BOTH the US and Russia supported Iraq in its war against Iran as both countries felt the Islamic revolution that Iran was trying to spread was a threat to them. Also, remember that Russia faces its own Islamic driven terrorism type war in Chechnya.

The fact that Russia and China supply Iran with weapons does mean they are willing to die for them. If anything they will look at this as a chance to sell new weapons to Iran to replace the ones destroyed in any type of war.

Iran pretty much stands on its own in the world. Outside of a few radical Islamists not many people will shed a tear if Iran gets its ass kicked by either Israel or the US.

 

[KDOG]

Don't get too hung up on the range of F-16s. Israel has modified versions with fuel pods on top of the wing roots to cover the distance. Theres some pics floating around the net.

 

[Jhhnn]

Nice denial of the facts, ProfJohn.

The US contols the airspace required for any Israeli attack- allowing such would make us complicit, not to mention that it would have to be carried out with US made weapons systems...

And the Iranians need do very little to inflict misery on American troops in Iraq. Right now, we're fighting the Sunni insurgents with Shia support, who are extremely friendly and beholden to their Iranian brethren. You suppose they'll just keep on keepin' on if we attack Iran? In your dreams.

Now take out a map, notice the long Iranian/Afghani border... try to remember that they've helped us against the Taliban... what happens when they change their minds, support the Taliban? Duh!

Take a look at the strait of Hormuz- here, I'll link up a nice map-

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_e...nd_asia/iran_strait_of_hormuz_2004.jpg

Notice how the deep water shipping channels run thru Iranian territorial waters? There's not a supertanker in the world that would enter the area if the Iranians declare it a war zone- Insurance is void in a war zone...

The ramifications of any attack on Iran are utterly uncalculable. We've seen the results of the Neocons' calculations wrt Iraq. Do you think that their thought processes have actually improved? That their delusional state has somehow abated? That somebody changed their meds?

 

[ProfJohn]

Jhhnn, you are hardly worth responding too.

Yes Iran can make our life in Iraq miserable. But do you not think that we can make their life a little more miserable? Ask the military in Bosnia how it felt when Clinton and NATO bombed the hell out of them for 30+ days.

Any action by Iran against us would be a total disaster for Iran. What part of that don?t you understand? Furthermore, any action by Iran against oil flowing through the Straights would also be a disaster as nearly every country in the world relies on oil from there, including China.

BTW: there is growing evidence that Iran is VERY involved in the Iraq insurgency. The more this evidence grows the more likely we are to allow Israel to take action against Iran or for us to take action ourselves.

The whole premise of your argument is that Iran can make our life difficult, but you totally ignore our response to any action of theirs.

 

[dahunan]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Jhhnn, you are hardly worth responding too.

Yes Iran can make our life in Iraq miserable. But do you not think that we can make their life a little more miserable? Ask the military in Bosnia how it felt when Clinton and NATO bombed the hell out of them for 30+ days.

Any action by Iran against us would be a total disaster for Iran. What part of that don?t you understand? Furthermore, any action by Iran against oil flowing through the Straights would also be a disaster as nearly every country in the world relies on oil from there, including China.

BTW: there is growing evidence that Iran is VERY involved in the Iraq insurgency. The more this evidence grows the more likely we are to allow Israel to take action against Iran or for us to take action ourselves.

The whole premise of your argument is that Iran can make our life difficult, but you totally ignore our response to any action of theirs.

And we would be responsible for the oil problems

Growing evidence and we can't do anything about it you do realize that the only thing we can do in Iraq is fight a ground war.. YOU READY FOR THAT?

If we are the agressor then we will also be seen as the vilain - too bad

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: dahunan
And we would be responsible for the oil problems

Growing evidence and we can't do anything about it you do realize that the only thing we can do in Iraq is fight a ground war.. YOU READY FOR THAT?

If we are the agressor then we will also be seen as the vilain - too bad

We won't be the agressor, Iran will be IF they respond to an Israeli attack by attacking us.

 

[dahunan]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: dahunan
And we would be responsible for the oil problems

Growing evidence and we can't do anything about it you do realize that the only thing we can do in Iraq is fight a ground war.. YOU READY FOR THAT?

If we are the agressor then we will also be seen as the vilain - too bad

We won't be the agressor, Iran will be IF they respond to an Israeli attack by attacking us.

Will we come out and condemn the attack or support it..

What happens when Iran launches missiles on tel-aviv and start flying jets to attack Israel will Israel need any help whatsoever and will they ask us for that help?

 

[Jhhnn]

Bosnia, ProfJohn? The whole of the former Yugoslavia is the size of a dime compared to a lot of real estate in Iran, and a lot of sophisticated air defense systems.

And this, the usual attributions from the rightwing-

"BTW: there is growing evidence that Iran is VERY involved in the Iraq insurgency. The more this evidence grows the more likely we are to allow Israel to take action against Iran or for us to take action ourselves."

Growing evidence? Cite some- you know, from a source other than the Whitehouse...

As far as it goes, you seem to carry the notional view that the ROTW will side with the US and the Israelis, if it comes to that. What would make you think that? We're the aggressors, the ones making demands and then initiating military actions, not the other way around...

Underestimating the Iranian military would be a mistake, as well. We saw what happened when the Israelis underestimated the Iranian trained Hezbollah... They've had ample time to study our means and methods in Iraq and Afghanistan, with many of their senior officers being both US and Russian trained... not to mention the unflinching self-sacrifice exhibited by their troops in the Iraqi war...

All for what? because the Israeli lobby can wag the American dog, because the now discredited Bush faction thinks that the Iranians might be able to create nuclear weapons somewhere down the road, even though the IAEA inspectors say there's no evidence of that?

The whole rationale is even more lame than the invasion of Iraq... The vast majority of Iranians support thier nuclear energy efforts, regardless of their other political leanings. Do you think they'll allow their govt to simply fold after suffering acts of naked aggression by the US or Israel? Are you that sold on the delusions of an American leadership whose past judgements have proven faulty in the extreme?

 

[dahunan]

How many nations would honestly help Israel if needed.. considering the anti-semitism that runs rampant in Europe and the European COWARDICE in regards to dealing with Islamic Extremists?

 

[dahunan]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Bosnia, ProfJohn? The whole of the former Yugoslavia is the size of a dime compared to a lot of real estate in Iran, and a lot of sophisticated air defense systems.

And this, the usual attributions from the rightwing-

"BTW: there is growing evidence that Iran is VERY involved in the Iraq insurgency. The more this evidence grows the more likely we are to allow Israel to take action against Iran or for us to take action ourselves."

Growing evidence? Cite some- you know, from a source other than the Whitehouse...

As far as it goes, you seem to carry the notional view that the ROTW will side with the US and the Israelis, if it comes to that. What would make you think that? We're the aggressors, the ones making demands and then initiating military actions, not the other way around...

Underestimating the Iranian military would be a mistake, as well. We saw what happened when the Israelis underestimated the Iranian trained Hezbollah... They've had ample time to study our means and methods in Iraq and Afghanistan, with many of their senior officers being both US and Russian trained... not to mention the unflinching self-sacrifice exhibited by their troops in the Iraqi war...

All for what? because the Israeli lobby can wag the American dog, because the now discredited Bush faction thinks that the Iranians might be able to create nuclear weapons somewhere down the road, even though the IAEA inspectors say there's no evidence of that?

The whole rationale is even more lame than the invasion of Iraq... The vast majority of Iranians support thier nuclear energy efforts, regardless of their other political leanings. Do you think they'll allow their govt to simply fold after suffering acts of naked aggression by the US or Israel? Are you that sold on the delusions of an American leadership whose past judgements have proven faulty in the extreme?

I don't want to be rude.. but do you REALLY believe that Iran is not going to produce nuclear weapon technology? Tell the truth.. non-biased and from your heart.. wussup..

I am 100% sure they will...

 

[fornax]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Jhhnn, you are hardly worth responding too.

Yes Iran can make our life in Iraq miserable. But do you not think that we can make their life a little more miserable? Ask the military in Bosnia how it felt when Clinton and NATO bombed the hell out of them for 30+ days.

Any action by Iran against us would be a total disaster for Iran. What part of that don?t you understand? Furthermore, any action by Iran against oil flowing through the Straights would also be a disaster as nearly every country in the world relies on oil from there, including China.

BTW: there is growing evidence that Iran is VERY involved in the Iraq insurgency. The more this evidence grows the more likely we are to allow Israel to take action against Iran or for us to take action ourselves.

The whole premise of your argument is that Iran can make our life difficult, but you totally ignore our response to any action of theirs.

Are you REALLY such a dimwit?

(a) We bombed Serbia, not Bosnia.
(b) We didn't bomb the military, we bombed the civilian infrastructure. The Serbian army suffered virtually no casualties (both because they were smart and we were dumb)
(c) We are able to inflict serious harm to Iran (at leats to their civilian infrastructure), but so are they. It remains to be seen who will be the stupidest to start the war.
(d) All our military victories in the last 50 years have been against small, weak countries without the capability to defend themselves. Look at these "heroic" victories: Grenada, Panama, Iraq, Serbia, Afghanistan, etc. We lost the wars in Vietnam, got kicked out Somalia and Lebanon, we have lost the war in Iraq, and are losing the war in Afghanistan. Not to mention that we have zero credibility and will get zero international support.

If you think that a quick bombing campaing will change Iran's mind, you must've believed we'll be met with flowers in Iraq. Did you?

 

[fornax]

Originally posted by: dahunan

I don't want to be rude.. but do you REALLY believe that Iran is not going to produce nuclear weapon technology? Tell the truth.. non-biased and from your heart.. wussup..

I am 100% sure they will...

At this point they are NOT - verified multiple times by inspections. However, I will not blame them if they do. After so many threats, including of nuclear attack, coming from us and Israel, they'll be perfectly in their right to counter those threats as well as they can, including with the threat of nuclear counter-attack. This is exactly Israel's logic, and I don't see why Iran can't paly by the same rules.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: dahunan

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: dahunan
And we would be responsible for the oil problems

Growing evidence and we can't do anything about it you do realize that the only thing we can do in Iraq is fight a ground war.. YOU READY FOR THAT?

If we are the agressor then we will also be seen as the vilain - too bad

We won't be the agressor, Iran will be IF they respond to an Israeli attack by attacking us.

Will we come out and condemn the attack or support it..

What happens when Iran launches missiles on tel-aviv and start flying jets to attack Israel will Israel need any help whatsoever and will they ask us for that help?

I personally don't think Israel will need any help, their military is one of the best in the world. Besides, how could Iran get their planes to Israel to attack? They'd have to go through Iraq, which we control.

 

[Jhhnn]

"I don't want to be rude.. but do you REALLY believe that Iran is not going to produce nuclear weapon technology? Tell the truth.. non-biased and from your heart.. wussup.."

So long as the IAEA inspectors are onsite in Iran, no weapons grade material will be produced, and no diversion of materials to a military program would go unnoticed.

Which is not to say that the Bushies and the Israelis will allow things to unfold in such a fashion at all. The first thing to go after any attack would be those inspectors... What the neocons seek, and are trying to create, is a self-fulfilling prophesy of one escalation on another...

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: dahunan

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: dahunan
And we would be responsible for the oil problems

Growing evidence and we can't do anything about it you do realize that the only thing we can do in Iraq is fight a ground war.. YOU READY FOR THAT?

If we are the agressor then we will also be seen as the vilain - too bad

We won't be the agressor, Iran will be IF they respond to an Israeli attack by attacking us.

Will we come out and condemn the attack or support it..

What happens when Iran launches missiles on tel-aviv and start flying jets to attack Israel will Israel need any help whatsoever and will they ask us for that help?

I personally don't think Israel will need any help, their military is one of the best in the world. Besides, how could Iran get their planes to Israel to attack? They'd have to go through Iraq, which we control.

Israel is not a global military power. They have better tech than their neighbors, but they are using the same equipment.

 

[Aimster]

http://www.theodora.com/maps/new8/middle_east.jpg

Israel is too far.

Syria has always detected Israel aircraft. They will alert Iran. Syria's problem is they have never been able to take one out.

 

[NoShangriLa]

I don?t think Israel is in a position to do anything to Iran, unless the Israelis leaders have a death wish because the numbers from CIA fact book greatly favor Iran. And, IMHO, Israel military advance isn?t enough to offset the shear Iranian population number, oil independent, large GDP, and very low public debt.

It looks like Israel have to learn to play nice to its neighbors, because the US having more than enough trouble in Afghanistan & Iraq to meddle with rest of the ME countries.

Israel:
Land -- 20,770 sq km
Population -- 6,352,117
GDP -- $156.9 billion (2005 est.)
Public debt -- 99.7% of GDP (2005 est.)
Oil production -- 2,740 bbl/day (2003 est.)
Oil consumption -- 270,100 bbl/day (2003 est.)
Manpower available for military service -- males age 17-49: 1,492,125, females age 17-49: 1,443,916 (2005 est.)
Manpower fit for military service -- males age 17-49: 1,255,902, females age 17-49: 1,212,394 (2005 est.)
Military expenditures % of GDP -- 7.7% (2005 est.)

Iran:
Land -- 1.648 million sq km
Population -- 68,688,433 (July 2006 est.)
GDP -- $569.9 billion (2005 est.)
Public debt -- 28.9% of GDP (2005 est.)
Oil ? production -- 3.979 million bbl/day (2005 est.)
Oil ? consumption -- 1.425 million bbl/day (2003 est.)
Manpower available for military service -- males age 18-49: 18,319,545, females age 18-49: 17,541,037 (2005 est.)
Manpower fit for military service -- males age 18-49: 15,665,725, females age 18-49: 15,005,597 (2005 est.)
Military expenditures % of GDP -- 3.3% (2003 est.)

 

[Tab]

On second thought, couldn't North Korea and China use this to their advantage? North Korea could invade the South. China could then invade Taiwan.

 

[ProfJohn]

NoShangriLa
You seem to be forgetting the fact that there are numerous countries in between these two.
Therefore it will not be a war where numbers mean anything.
It would be a war where the only weapons in use would be air planes and missiles.
I would give the edge to Isreal.
As someone pointed out Iran and Israel both have to fly over Iraq.
We will not shot down an Israeli jet, but we will shot down Iranian jets.
Plus the Iranian air force is made up of a bunch of cold war era left-overs. Go to Wikipedia and read about it.

As for what happened in Lebanon, this has NOTHING in common. This is not the IDF riding into Iran, this is them flying 2000 miles dropping some bombs and flying home.

Iran either tries to do the same, or they launch missiles. They have no other alternative.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Tab
On second thought, couldn't North Korea and China use this to their advantage? North Korea could invade the South. China could then invade Taiwan.

Why? First off the North would lose in a war with the south.

And why would China risk a World War over Taiwan? To much to lose and to little to gain.

IF it happens the world calls Israel a bunch of name, and nothing else.
Same thing that happened after the 1982 bombing.

 

[Tab]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Tab
On second thought, couldn't North Korea and China use this to their advantage? North Korea could invade the South. China could then invade Taiwan.

Why? First off the North would lose in a war with the south.

And why would China risk a World War over Taiwan? To much to lose and to little to gain.

IF it happens the world calls Israel a bunch of name, and nothing else.
Same thing that happened after the 1982 bombing.

Why China wants Tawian

I would hope that if Israel did attack Iran unprovoked, the rest of the world would tell Israel it's alone on this one.