Israel: We Are At War

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Mar 11, 2004
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Iran really should be quite scared at (a) how precise the attack was and (b) how useless their defense against such attacks were. I mean basically Israel demonstrated they could pretty much obliterate anything in the country at will.
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Having said this and going back to the larger picture - I think Israel is no doubt guilty of massive war crimes in Gaza and their treatment of the Gaza people (regardless of their religion/ethnic) has been disgusting the past decade. I do not believe this treatment cause the Hamas terrorist attacks which is a different matter. I would like to see certain people in the Israel govt and army brought up and tried (and hopefully sentenced) for war crimes.

Having said this I believe Israel has the right to defend it self and it has shown reasonable constraint (probably with great pressure by the Biden adminstration) in their attacks against Iran. I do expect a public shift in position by the Biden adminstration (regardless of the election out come) once the elections take place on Nov 5th and I think such a shift would be correct.

Having said all of this i do not have an answer or even a suggestion for fixes for these conflicts. I believe that if Israel did not exist Saudi and Iran would be at war. If there was a two state solution for Palestinian (even if the Palestinian received most of what they asked for) a year later a new conflict would arise for some to be determined reason. Basically Israel ingenuity turned a land of have not into a land of have that surrounding areas could but have failed to copy and this conflict will never be resolved. In addition there will always be those who use religious difference as a basis to claim others do not have the right to exist and that has been going on in the middle east region for over 3000 years (basically before religion as we now know them). Part of the issue is a general backwardness of the people and a desire of leaderships to use this as a way to retain power and part of it might very well be something in the water that make people unable to get along.

Anyway that is my views on the matter and my prediction for the immediate future.

I am constantly baffled how people are surprised to find how shitty Russia and Iran, and other similar states, military/defense actually is. We know its shit. We've known its shit for decades. We knew it was shit back when Republicans were lying to justify spending trillions upon trillions to combat them. Iran's military has functionally not really improved since the 80s. Its gotten worse in many ways, improved in some others (purely out of technological progress that enables stuff like drones).

Its impossible to separate it, as both are pointing to current and thousands of years of grievances to justify further atrocities. Whatever specific examples they cite are pointless as there will always be another they'll point to. Doesn't matter its all pointless.

Maybe the US should give the land, that Israel agreed was not theirs, that they've stolen from Palestine, to Christians. This way they can properly start their Crusades and Armaggedon, which is what they all seem to want. Let them. And based on the "God said so" argument for why they deserve that land, they all have the claim. Let them find out who God wanted to win.

Oof, yeah I'm sure Israel fucking up the "have not" has nothing to do with them having not. UAE and Saudi Arabia, each, are wealthier than Israel so not even sure what you're talking about there. Iran and Iraq also both at times were far wealthier than Israel. The only reason Israel has the tech stuff they do is because of the defense industry buildup from America. I don't think backwardness has anything to do with it. I'm baffled again, but suddenly you being suprised that Iran's defenses being shit makes sense. You seem to think its early 1900s or something, that Lawrence of Arabia is still running around on horses and shit.
 
Mar 11, 2004
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last time was impressive for failing to breach their 'defenses'


Not sure what its trying to say with that grammar.

I had a hunch Israel's claim of how good it is was BS and basically trying to get countries to not even try to shoot stuff at them. I recall reading about how there were struggles with such intercept systems and there was some evidence that something wasn't kosher when Iron Dome did really well compared to the Patriot Missile Defense system in some test. And there's been fluff acting like its impenetrable now. Seems like they're almost as big of liars as Russia if that's how effective it is. Some of it seems due to running out of ordinance, but you can't shoot something down if you don't have anything to shoot it down with.

I don't doubt Iron Dome is better than the Patriot system since the latter seemed to be not very good, and I'm sure it is good with limited salvos here and there, but the way people have been acting like Iron Dome is some flawless shield, borderline a force field, for Israel has been absurd. And a lot of that seems to have come from defense nerds that should know better.

They must have finally cracked because this was their editorial yesterday


Perhaps related to your following post? I think China is the only country that realized the actual greatest strength of America's military, is its logistics and the military industrial complex. Everyone else (or at least Russia and Israel, and Saudi Arabia with the Houthis, I'm sure plenty of others), seems to have forgotten it takes a lot of resources to run a war. And in modern times, it doesn't come with spoils, so you really don't gain anything with it.
 

jones377

Senior member
May 2, 2004
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Israel's primary defense against ballistic missiles isn't even Iron Dome. Iron Dome was designed to intercept lowtech rockets fired out of Gaza by Hamas and similar from Hezbollah in Lebanon. But because it's been grabbing all the headlines people seem to think Iron Dome is the only system Israel has.

Arrow 2 & 3 and David's Sling are their primary defense against Ballistic missiles from Iran plus some Patriot batteries they could pull out of storage.

This was a saturation barrage with 200+ missiles aimed at an Israeli airbase, which if you look at satellite photos from above is mostly empty land plus some runways, taxiways and hardened shelters for aircraft and personnel. I don't think there is any land based missile defense system in the world that could deal with that as you'd need 200+ interceptor missiles ready to launch in the area targeted to even have a chance.

Iranian missiles don't seem to be accurate enough to target individual buildings so most of these missiles impacted into the ground doing little damage. But if Iran had targeted downtown Tel Aviv with this barrage we would be having a completely different discussion....
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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But if Iran had targeted downtown Tel Aviv with this barrage we would be having a completely different discussion....
And Iran is poised to strike a third time.

At what point does Israel conclude that nuclear deterrence has failed, and it is time to launch nukes at Iran?
Presumably you'd want to do that BEFORE Tel Aviv is decimated by an Iranian barrage. Not after.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,855
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And Iran is poised to strike a third time.

At what point does Israel conclude that nuclear deterrence has failed, and it is time to launch nukes at Iran?
Presumably you'd want to do that BEFORE Tel Aviv is decimated by an Iranian barrage. Not after.
They would only make that determination if national survival was at stake. The odds of them using nukes in retaliation for strikes on Tel Aviv are essentially zero.
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
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I am constantly baffled how people are surprised to find how shitty Russia military/defense actually is.
So this is an interesting question - did the usa know that Russia 'state of the art' military was a pile of shit? I mean certainly after the invasion of Ukraine i think it is well known but prior at least on paper for non military people like myself it looked almost competitive. This ignores the shitty execution by Russia on top of shitty equipment.
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
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And Iran is poised to strike a third time.

At what point does Israel conclude that nuclear deterrence has failed, and it is time to launch nukes at Iran?
Presumably you'd want to do that BEFORE Tel Aviv is decimated by an Iranian barrage. Not after.
I doubt Israel would use nukes if not due to political fallout then due to radition fallout. HOWEVER do expect israel to counter attack hitting Iran political, nuclear and energy targets. They likely did not do this due to extreme pressure from USA but a serious counter-strike by Iran would probably result in a very serious unconstrained response. Of course if Iran 'counter strike' is minor like attacking a single military target Israel might use constraint.

Further i suspect Israel is treating all these attacks as Iran or Iran influenced attack so the hawk element of the govt is very hopeful Iran does launch a counter attack.
 

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
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I dont think Iran is going to attack without further provocation. Whatever drones they are supplying to their proxies in Iraq I think are just to prepare themselves in case future escalations are committed against Iran. Like what Israel had done before (which were acts of war in bombing their consulate in Syria and blowing someone up on their territory). Despite their bluster, would be pretty dumb of Iran to retaliate against Israels last strike

Israel otoh is a psychopathic state that would love to draw Iran into a war (with US involvement preferably). And Israeli intel (the same folks who helped the US build their WMD case against Iraq) are just the sort of folks eager to continue their disinfo campaigns and paint this as Iran about to retaliate. If anyone attacks, I think Israel will first and claim it as a 'preemptive' strike against Irans (Iraq) proxies or even against Iran itself.

Some in Israel are calling on N'yahoo to strike Iran quickly before they get a chance to rebuild or reinforce their defenses. And they are saying that this is a golden opportunity for them to do so.
 
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Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
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Some in Israel are calling on N'yahoo to strike Iran quickly before they get a chance to rebuild or reinforce their defenses. And they are saying that this is a golden opportunity for them to do so.
Ha ha, yeah, right. Stalingrad is ripe for the picking Mein Furher.
 
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amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
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Ha ha, yeah, right. Stalingrad is ripe for the picking Mein Furher.
These guys are raring to go if they ever replace N'yahoo. They and others like them are basically urging him to 'do it, do it'... If you think Israel will be on a calmer, more reasoned path with 'Yahu gone, think again.

(Former Israeli PM) Bennet urges Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program: ‘A one-time window of opportunity’



Lapid criticizes Israeli strikes on Iran, says ‘decision not to attack strategic and economic targets in Iran was wrong’
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
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And Iran is poised to strike a third time.

At what point does Israel conclude that nuclear deterrence has failed, and it is time to launch nukes at Iran?
Presumably you'd want to do that BEFORE Tel Aviv is decimated by an Iranian barrage. Not after.
Fuck do you look at pictures of the aftermath and the impact on people of Nagasaki and think that looks like fun? You are unique here for constantly advocating for nuclear combat, wtf is wrong with you?
 
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