Originally posted by: Samwise
BOBDN, you should go on The Factor. That would be funny.
I actually like Oreilly a lot. Anyone that thinks he's a conservative only should watch or read the transcript form teh show he had with Rosie Odonnel.
I do have a couple of questions for you though BOBDN. Regarding Clinton.....can you point to or name or reference any legislation that he created/supported which you hold directly attributable to the growth of the economy? IMO, a schlackster in office, that kept his hands off the technology market could have enjoyed the same great growth we had for those years. You may not have understood what I was implying in my original response......but a LARGE, although not ONLY reason for the massive growth we had during those years was the tech sector and biotechs. And I'm not just talking about phantom IPOs either.....but companies like Microsoft at one time (circa 1998) having over $450Billion in market capitlization. At one point, M$FT had a larger market cap then GM did. The economy downturn occurred because of the extremely large numbers of stocks that were simply over-valued. Yahoo, Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Cisco....the list goes on and on. The Telecommunications market bit the dust. The airline industry (pre-9/11) was already in trouble. Yah, the dow's gone down a lot too (and only 28 of the 30 are blue-chips).....but the market adjustment permeated all levels of the economy.
Arguing over when a recession occurred is semantics, and mostly a partisan only argument. I can tell you this.....of my grand then portfolio in 1998, most all of my stocks had begun sliding downward in 2000, not 2001. Granted, I was heavily tech based in my investments....but nonetheless, that's when they started. I even remember watching CNN in 1999 with more then one economist constantly warning people not to get complacent because the type of growth we were having could not last forever, and that investors were going to get burned. Too bad I didn't listen.
The number of jobs lost (whether it's 1.5 million or 2.5 million) is directly related to the correction in the economy as we moved from phantom stocks and VC Firms (selling ideas and empty promises) with PE ratios in teh stratosphere....to a trend towards more stable economics.....ie, running your company correctly. Not to mention certain sector wide struggles (tech industy, telecommunications, airlines)
Beginning in 2001, the market was moving towards that necessary correction, and at least my stockbroker (pre-9/11) was strongly encouraging me to buy based on the economic factors. Even then most economic/stock market shows were leaning towards a buy/hold strategey as well. Then our market hit another chasm with 9/11, and we had that huge drop-off.
Aside from a political argument over the war, and it's associated cost (I think it will be higher then $120 Billion myself w/ reconstruction), I agree that a tax cut + deficit spending doesn't seem like a good idea. I would argue the point that the tax cut only affects the top 10% though.......as a key piece of the tax cut was to help the "marriage penalty" as well as the "double taxation of dividends".
But regardless: I think a tax cut is necessary, and I agree with the logic, even if it can be PROVEN that it only affects the top 10%. Here's why. Simple Logic. Tax Cut = More money in your (or the top 10%) pocket = more money to spend = more money in the actual economy and not the governments pockets. We are a consumer driven economy, and the only way for market to grow, is for the consumers to spend more, and the only way to spend more is to have more, even if it's the top 10%. I could care less if I get one penny more each year from taxes as long as my job outlook looks better. (I'm about as far from the top 10% as black is from white)
Regarding Social Security----my grandfather has put in way more than you have (he's 80), and even he is willing to accept his benefits till he dies, and let the social security departmenet have the rest of his contribution. I don't think ending social security is the way at all, but at a certain point, I do think that social security will have an opt-out. You've contributed X amount.......you can recieve X /per month now if you quit contributing.
But my key point is mainly this: The sitting president doesn't control the economy. If it weren't for the TECH/Internet/Biotech BOOM of the 90's, we'd have never had that massive expansion as everyone and their uncle was vying to move to the NEW business model. As it was proven that advertising alone isn't enough, and selling direct alone isn't enough........billions were lost, and we're back to the same old economic model with "intricicies". I dispute that GW caused the recession, and the fact that the recession started in Q1 2001 (solely based on my experience there).....but I don't deny that after this business with Iraq, that the current administration has a ton of work to do with the economy.