JH-Nvidia: Volta not coming soon.. and may be "expensive"

[amenx]

Nvidia has not announced a release date, though company boss Jensen Huang did put to rest any rumors that Volta might arrive in the gaming scene before the end of the year. That's not going to happen.

"Volta for gaming, we haven't announced anything. And all I can say is that our pipeline is filled with some exciting new toys for the gamers, and we have some really exciting new technology to offer them in the pipeline. But for the holiday season for the foreseeable future, I think Pascal is just unbeatable," Huang stated during a recent earnings call...

Nvidia would never say this publicly, but if we read between the lines, Huang is basically saying that Vega isn't a threat to Pascal, so there's no need to rush Volta out the door...

Nvidia's official reasoning for holding off Volta for consumers is cost. Volta is currently available in professional form for use in data centers. However, these GPUs are "expensive things to go and design," according to Huang. He estimates the manufacturing cost to be "several hundred dollars to close to $1,000," which he admits is "quite extraordinary."...

http://www.pcgamer.com/nvidias-next-gen-volta-gaming-gpus-arent-arriving-anytime-soon/

Well hopefully, costs will be manageable by release date. I will not pay $500-550 for a gtx 2070 (not that that will happen, just saying).

 

[Malogeek]

Nvidia's official reasoning for holding off Volta for consumers is cost. Volta is currently available in professional form for use in data centers. However, these GPUs are "expensive things to go and design," according to Huang. He estimates the manufacturing cost to be "several hundred dollars to close to $1,000," which he admits is "quite extraordinary."...

I'm sure this is specifically regarding GV100, which is an utterly monstrous chip and thus likely very expensive to manufacture. I doubt the costs of GV104+ will have increased a lot and likely the reason they may be priced high is to gouge the consumers due to (once again) lack of competition.

 

[amenx]

I'm sure this is specifically regarding GV100, which is an utterly monstrous chip and thus likely very expensive to manufacture. I doubt the costs of GV104+ will have increased a lot and likely the reason they may be priced high is to gouge the consumers due to (once again) lack of competition.

I could sense JH's words were to prepare us for that eventuality .

 

[Despoiler]

The assumptions that Nvidia would move up a consumer product release because <insert reason here> was always silly. On another thread, I laid out a Volta timeline which was based on historic data. It was always plausible. It's now in the realm of believable. Nvidia already has an impeccable product development timeline. Why would they change it? AMD isn't really a big threat. AMD can wiggle in some wins, but Nvidia will still enjoy the lion's share of high margin segments. Also, generally speaking companies don't sacrifice high margin products to push consumer. Their forecasts would have to show a reason for doing so. I personally do not see that happening with the way the landscape is currently or is heading for GPUs.

 

[amenx]

The assumptions that Nvidia would move up a consumer product release because <insert reason here> was always silly..

We've seen them sneak in a product launch before. GTX580 the fermi refresh caught most of use off guard. It was only announced a few weeks before the launch of AMD 6970/6950 and even launched just before these cards thus raining on their parade. Of course its a totally different case today where NV do not have as much motivation or need to do so. But always love surprises.

 

[Rifter]

If Nvidia wants to kill AMD GPU's forever they will ramp up the timeline, this is the time to land the deathblow after the vega fail. If volta consumer came out my Christmas it would put AMD GPU's out of business. Could you imagine the midrange 2060 beating vega for several hundred dollars less? Would be insanity.

But if they decide to let AMD GPU division live then they will likely delay volta and raise prices, as this makes the most economic sense.

 

[FIVR]

Why would nvidia want to take out their best CPU designer? You people realize that without AMD, intel would be your only choice... right?




Nvidia needs AMD way more than AMD needs Nvidia. Nvidia doesn't want to jeopardize their future by trying to "take out" AMD. So nvidia gamers get screwed, and don't get their GPU probably until mid 2018.

 

[Sweepr]

KG revealed that Volta game graphics is expected to officially released in March 2018

http://www.xfastest.com/thread-197473-1-1.html

 

[littleg]

It doesn't make any sense to release a new product when your competition are well behind and you can use that time to build more profit from your already paid off current arch.

 

[Qwertilot]

There has 'always' looked to be a big GDDR6 thing coming in March ish 2018 there is a second question as to whether they push out GV104 with GDDR5(X) before then or not.

 

[EXCellR8]

never would have guessed a new product from Nvidia would be expensive...

 

[Despoiler]

We've seen them sneak in a product launch before. GTX580 the fermi refresh caught most of use off guard. It was only announced a few weeks before the launch of AMD 6970/6950 and even launched just before these cards thus raining on their parade. Of course its a totally different case today where NV do not have as much motivation or need to do so. But always love surprises.

For sure. There are cases like that. The 480 definitely wasn't performing like Nvidia wanted. That makes the 580 of a more unique short timeline product than a longer term project that new architectures are. I would not be surprised if AMD refreshes Vega in the same manner.

 

[sandorski]

If true, it gives AMD some breathing room to try and get back into form. That probably will only happen with Navi, but maybe they can fix Vega in some fashion to make it compete better. Regardless, AMD has the ability to ride out failure on the Video Market now that it's competitive with CPU's again. I'm sure they'd rather be competitive in both Markets, but what's done is done.

 

[Creig]

I never would have guessed a new product from Nvidia would be expensive...

Jen-Hsun didn't even blink when he unveiled the $1,200.00 Titan X last year. Can you imagine what Nvidia will ask for a high end Volta card if he's already saying the cost will be "quite extraordinary"?!?

It's things like this that make me glad that my gaming ego doesn't control my wallet.

 

[EXCellR8]

prob like buying an exotic car... you'll need to own several other models in order to qualify for buying one.

 

[LTC8K6]

Sounds like they will squeeze more out of Pascal. I hope so because that would be interesting.

 

[tential]

http://www.xfastest.com/thread-197473-1-1.html

I've seen a ton of people explaining this. Once I saw these posts i felt confident waiting 6 months will be worth it.

This would be my first Nvidia purchase in a long long time.

Jen-Hsun didn't even blink when he unveiled the $1,200.00 Titan X last year. Can you imagine what Nvidia will ask for a high end Volta card if he's already saying the cost will be "quite extraordinary"?!?

It's things like this that make me glad that my gaming ego doesn't control my wallet.

With his income would you?

 

[Qwertilot]

Didn't they kind of do a refresh this Spring? Faster memory and things. They could do a 1070ti I suppose, but I doubt if there's enough time before March next year to justify that.
(Well actually they even basically have a 1070ti 'ready' I think? The mobile version.).

We'll find out.

 

[Rifter]

If they really want to screw with AMD they should release a mobile 1070 on the desktop, and price it $50 less than the Vega. Would fly off the shelf at warp speed.

 

[swilli89]

I bet we will see Volta do a truly staggered launch much like Kepler.. ie the 680 being released then almost a full year until the full chip in the stack got released as the cutdown 780 and full 780Ti. And why not? AMD won't have anything to touch the top end of Volta until Navi.. and even now unless they perform a Zen-like miracle, Navi isn't even looking good. We may see a GV-104 as the absolute top end (1080ti +20%) for most of 2018, with possibly a GV102 "Titan" at $1,200+ for the remainder of 2018.. Meh.. I'm just going to buy a used 970 and play Overwatch/Starcraft Remastered for a while anyways.

 

[moonbogg]

Hopefully they aren't so expensive that the only people able to game on Volta are the Nvidia engineers. If the price increases too much then congrats to them for making themselves a nice gaming GPU.

 

[tential]

I bet we will see Volta do a truly staggered launch much like Kepler.. ie the 680 being released then almost a full year until the full chip in the stack got released as the cutdown 780 and full 780Ti. And why not? AMD won't have anything to touch the top end of Volta until Navi.. and even now unless they perform a Zen-like miracle, Navi isn't even looking good. We may see a GV-104 as the absolute top end (1080ti +20%) for most of 2018, with possibly a GV102 "Titan" at $1,200+ for the remainder of 2018.. Meh.. I'm just going to buy a used 970 and play Overwatch/Starcraft Remastered for a while anyways.

Nvidia has been staggering releases this whole time since......
Also, you don't know if Navi will release as a top to bottom release. Given how all GPUs have released recently. I HIGHLY DOUBT THIS.

Navi will NOT bring about the high end return of AMD. Navi will start just like Polaris, with the mainstream parts leading first, and the high end part coming the next year. Nvidia and AMD are staggering their releases now.

Hopefully they aren't so expensive that the only people able to game on Volta are the Nvidia engineers. If the price increases too much then congrats to them for making themselves a nice gaming GPU.

Let the finance team in on it and I'll send my application today.
JK who am I kidding, with how Nvidia performs recently, I'm stalking them to get a job.

 

[Magee_MC]

I bet we will see Volta do a truly staggered launch much like Kepler.. ie the 680 being released then almost a full year until the full chip in the stack got released as the cutdown 780 and full 780Ti. And why not? AMD won't have anything to touch the top end of Volta until Navi.. and even now unless they perform a Zen-like miracle, Navi isn't even looking good. We may see a GV-104 as the absolute top end (1080ti +20%) for most of 2018, with possibly a GV102 "Titan" at $1,200+ for the remainder of 2018.. Meh.. I'm just going to buy a used 970 and play Overwatch/Starcraft Remastered for a while anyways.

If GV102 costs ~$1,000 to manufacture as JSH said, then I don't see it coming in at less than $1,500 minimum and more likely $1,700-$1,800. NV will want to maintain their margins, especially at the top end, so that will dictate their pricing.

 

[tential]

If GV102 costs ~$1,000 to manufacture as JSH said, then I don't see it coming in at less than $1,500 minimum and more likely $1,700-$1,800. NV will want to maintain their margins, especially at the top end, so that will dictate their pricing.

I really wish I had a witty line for this, but I'm not sure JHH would be the most reliable source in this context.
As @amenx said, and when I first read his comment I had no idea what he was talking about and if I had posted what I had thought then it'd be in direct contradiction to this,

He's just throwing a "large number out" to get people ready for whatever price they eventually charge.

When he comments on Volta costs during an investor meeting, where he's obligated to tell the truth, then we'll know.

Investor Meetings are like strapping them down and giving them a truth serum. They can't lie to you then!
Anything else is marketing and posturing.

 

[railven]

I bet we will see Volta do a truly staggered launch much like Kepler.. ie the 680 being released then almost a full year until the full chip in the stack got released as the cutdown 780 and full 780Ti. And why not? AMD won't have anything to touch the top end of Volta until Navi.. and even now unless they perform a Zen-like miracle, Navi isn't even looking good. We may see a GV-104 as the absolute top end (1080ti +20%) for most of 2018, with possibly a GV102 "Titan" at $1,200+ for the remainder of 2018.. Meh.. I'm just going to buy a used 970 and play Overwatch/Starcraft Remastered for a while anyways.

If NV does something like they did with Pascal, I'm definitely going Titan. Not going to pick up two GPUs like I did with the GTX 1080/1080 Ti. I basically ended up with a slightly faster GTX 980 Ti (the GTX 1080) going into the wife's PC and a 1080 Ti for myself.

If Titan V (or whatever they wanna call it) is a slightly cut GP102 like die, that's where I'll be. Wife gets my GTX 1080 Ti and I sit on Titan V for 2 years. Same money out of pocket, less hassle.