Jim Keller leaves AMD

[RampantAndroid]

I thought 2) would have been obvious, but I guess I need to explain it.

1) The investors asking Microsoft to spin off the Xbox division are idiots. There's no such thing as infinite growth, and the sooner every single investor in the world understands this, the better. Infinite opportunity is a possibility, but infinite growth is not.

2) You fire AMD's CPU designers and you hire chip designers from other companies. Money talks. As you've pointed out, AMD's people don't have what it takes. But you need AMD's IP portfolio to get the job done. I never said you needed the people. When they go home the next day, they can explain to their wife that they sucked at their job, and have been doing so for the past 10 years.

Lastly, I'm not talking about a "cash infusion". That could be accomplished by investment. I'm talking about buying AMD.

You fire the designers and then...get them from where? You might get some to come from Apple, Samsung and Intel but I'd again suggest that pissing off partners that you rely on to be a terrible idea. Additionally, the x86 license is in this mess. A return on the investment would take *years*, all from a company that only recently has gotten into PC hardware (yes, I know they made keyboards for years...)? I'm not sure it's just vision, I think there's something to be said for taking something that's working and integrating it (such as PA Semi) versus taking something that's pretty broken (AMD, where they sit today) and trying to integrate it while making it work.

I could marginally see Apple nabbing AMD...but not MS.

 

[Vortex6700]

Yeah, all the time actually. Just because I'm expected to wear a nice suit and drive a nice car doesn't mean the job itself is bad. The job itself is great, and actually a load of fun, but both sides of my family has an entrepreneurial spirit, and it eventually overtook me too.

My Uncle thinks its hilarious because I'm around the same he was when he had enough of 9 to 5 and struck out on his own. He thinks its especially funny because 15 years ago I said I'd never start my own business.

Crow never tastes good.

EDIT: Also, I love golf, so the country club membership wasn't a huge deal, I used to play all the time with Adm. Paul Sullivan when I was stationed in Pearl Harbor years back, one of the perks of being part of his staff.

How did we get from Jim Keller (someone who doesnt have to drive a pretty car to get attention) to the "status" you get from a car thats 1/6 the value (and comfort) of my truck?


P.S. The way you seem to understand business, it's a surprise you could afford the vw (with leather).

 

[Boze]

I could marginally see Apple nabbing AMD...but not MS.

This is exactly why I proposed it though... Apple acquiring AMD could prove to be detrimental to a lot of markets and companies, specifically console gaming.

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Microsoft's Xbox Unit lose $400 million last year or something like that? I thought I heard somewhere that the PS4 makes $17 per $399 console.

If Apple bought AMD, I wonder if they'd even bother with consoles at all? Conventional wisdom says, "Of course they would", but Apple doesn't really operate under convention. If anything I'd say they'd release their own Apple console and let Sony & Microsoft duke it out with Intel for high-performance low-cost chips for the Xbox 4 and PlayStation 5. Or they'd just shelve the console CPUs and say, "Too much sugar for a dime, no thanks." When you have $120 billion in cash, $500 million means nothing.

If Microsoft acquires AMD, even without the x86 licensing - which I fully believe they could get from Intel anyway - they don't have this spectre looming over their head, furthermore Microsoft can stick it to Sony by forcing Sony to purchase Intel / Apple / ARM / Samsung chips for the PlayStation 5. Microsoft, with a great deal of work, could make future versions of Windows that would work on a future AMD processor that was designed over the next 5-8 years.

But let's be realistic... Intel won't pull the x86 licensing because businesses rely on Microsoft software. All. those. thin. clients. still. run. x86. Windows. It'd be a lot easier to port Windows over to a new microprocessor architecture than it would be for Intel to lose access to a huge swath of revenue, i.e., OEMs that pre-load Windows for Office PCs.

I understand that this would be a radical and dramatic shift to the computing world status quo, but maybe that's exactly what we need...

I'm welcoming whatever new refutation you Albert Jobses will have for me, so by all means, keep 'em coming.

 

[Boze]

How did we get from Jim Keller (someone who doesnt have to drive a pretty car to get attention) to the "status" you get from a car thats 1/6 the value (and comfort) of my truck?

P.S. The way you seem to understand business, it's a surprise you could afford the vw (with leather).

I sincerely doubt that your truck as comfortable as an A6, but my Uncle drives an F-350 King Ranch, and I won't lie, that's one damn comfortable truck, so you might be right.

And we got to this place because MiddleOfTheRoad consistently tried to refute points that I wasn't even making, over and over.

 

[frozentundra123456]

This is exactly why I proposed it though... Apple acquiring AMD could prove to be detrimental to a lot of markets and companies, specifically console gaming.

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Microsoft's Xbox Unit lose $400 million last year or something like that? I thought I heard somewhere that the PS4 makes $17 per $399 console.

If Apple bought AMD, I wonder if they'd even bother with consoles at all? Conventional wisdom says, "Of course they would", but Apple doesn't really operate under convention. If anything I'd say they'd release their own Apple console and let Sony & Microsoft duke it out with Intel for high-performance low-cost chips for the Xbox 4 and PlayStation 5. Or they'd just shelve the console CPUs and say, "Too much sugar for a dime, no thanks." When you have $120 billion in cash, $500 million means nothing.

If Microsoft acquires AMD, even without the x86 licensing - which I fully believe they could get from Intel anyway - they don't have this spectre looming over their head, furthermore Microsoft can stick it to Sony by forcing Sony to purchase Intel / Apple / ARM / Samsung chips for the PlayStation 5. Microsoft, with a great deal of work, could make future versions of Windows that would work on a future AMD processor that was designed over the next 5-8 years.

But let's be realistic... Intel won't pull the x86 licensing because businesses rely on Microsoft software. All. those. thin. clients. still. run. x86. Windows. It'd be a lot easier to port Windows over to a new microprocessor architecture than it would be for Intel to lose access to a huge swath of revenue, i.e., OEMs that pre-load Windows for Office PCs.

I understand that this would be a radical and dramatic shift to the computing world status quo, but maybe that's exactly what we need...

I'm welcoming whatever new refutation you Albert Jobses will have for me, so by all means, keep 'em coming.

I just dont see why MS would want AMD. They already have the console APUs, and considering AMD's desperate straits undoubtedly negotiated a very good deal. So they dont really need AMD for console chips. AMD cpus right now are not competitive, and Zen APUs will not be here before 2017 at the earliest, and despite all the hype, nobody knows what their performance will be. So I dont see a big need for their APUs for surface either. The only reason I could see for MS to want to acquire AMD would be to screw over Sony. And I am sure there are contracts in place already, but I dont know if those would remain valid if AMD were taken over.

I could see a better case for Apple, but even then, if they decided to go away from Intel I would think they would just port everything to their own chips instead of acquiring AMD and all its debt.

But we have heard these rumors for years and nothing has ever happened. I still see it as an unlikely case that either of these two, or anyone else for that matter, will acquire AMD. The only reason I see it as a bit better possibility now is that AMD stock is so cheap.

 

[Dresdenboy]

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Microsoft's Xbox Unit lose $400 million last year or something like that? I thought I heard somewhere that the PS4 makes $17 per $399 console.

This is already better than with the money losing PS3.
How much make Amazon and shops of it?
Sony earns much more by the sales, memberships, and licences following the sold HW.

 

[Boze]

I just dont see why MS would want AMD. They already have the console APUs, and considering AMD's desperate straits undoubtedly negotiated a very good deal. So they dont really need AMD for console chips. AMD cpus right now are not competitive, and Zen APUs will not be here before 2017 at the earliest, and despite all the hype, nobody knows what their performance will be. So I dont see a big need for their APUs for surface either. The only reason I could see for MS to want to acquire AMD would be to screw over Sony. And I am sure there are contracts in place already, but I dont know if those would remain valid if AMD were taken over.

I could see a better case for Apple, but even then, if they decided to go away from Intel I would think they would just port everything to their own chips instead of acquiring AMD and all its debt.

But we have heard these rumors for years and nothing has ever happened. I still see it as an unlikely case that either of these two, or anyone else for that matter, will acquire AMD. The only reason I see it as a bit better possibility now is that AMD stock is so cheap.

I don't know who will buy AMD, but I think someone will... I don't think AMD is just going to be relegated to the dust bin of history, but you never know...

 

[Idontcare]

I just dont see why MS would want AMD.

I said the same of Nokia...and yet :\

Never underestimate the desperation that middle-to-upper management can have to pursue a M&A to create the perception that they, individually, are contributing to the company and thusly deserve to continue being richly rewarded with RSUs and 5-figure bonuses (if not a promotion!).

The longer I am in this industry the more I become convinced that the only management worth their salt are the ones who truly can be said to have created the very business opportunity itself. The Steve Jobs', Jen-Hsun Huang's, Elon Musk's, Bill Gates', Larry Ellison's, Andrew Grove's, Morris Chang's of the world.

To be contrasted with the speak-easy people who at best get promoted to merely manage and not screwup the business they inherent-by-promotion, managers who seem to be cut from a totally different (and less impressive) cloth.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Never underestimate the desperation that middle-to-upper management can have to pursue a M&A to create the perception that they, individually, are contributing to the company and thusly deserve to continue being richly rewarded with RSUs and 5-figure bonuses (if not a promotion!).
.

I still remember the presentation that Microsoft gave on its Nokia acquisition...the best way to summarize it is: "Garbage In, Garbage Out."

 

[Dresdenboy]

The Steve Jobs', Jen-Hsun Huang's, Elon Musk's, Bill Gates', Larry Ellison's, Andrew Grove's, Morris Chang's of the world.

Oh, so many ADHD'ers (ADHD not as a DSM V illness but a personality) with their creativity, energy, restlessness, and willingness to ignore the rules if appropriate.

So this is true about the speak easy people. They can't become ADHD'ers, but they are good and necessary to serve them. This also includes partners like Wozniak and Ballmer.

What about the Google boys?

 

[Dresdenboy]

I still remember the presentation that Microsoft gave on its Nokia acquisition...the best way to summarize it is: "Garbage In, Garbage Out."

And we bought Nokia Here, much better.

 

[Arachnotronic]

And we bought Nokia Here, much better.

Nokia maps are excellent, AFAIK, so this sounds like a good buy on the part of your company (Diamler?)

 

[ShintaiDK]

I think Nokia is a fine example what would happen if AMD got bought by MS. Buy it today, close it tomorrow when the people realize it was another epic mistake.

 

[Dude111]

waiting for more sources to confirm, but if true that's a pretty big blow to AMD.

Yes especially seeing AMD is such a good product! (It makes quite a challenge to the others)



Poor jim........ I hope his family is ok!

 

[Dresdenboy]

Nokia maps are excellent, AFAIK, so this sounds like a good buy on the part of your company (Diamler?)

No, I'm in the big boat Audi (part of buyer consortium) belongs to.

 

[dark zero]

Returning to the post, seems that negotiations between AMD and the Investor failed HARD, while MS is moving off their Xbox division (that's a death sentence) and AMD GPU division is a dissaster.

AMD is hopefully dying in everything. And maybe this is the moment from Apple to buy the GPU division for real and the perfect moment to sell Zen design to VIA.

 

[KingFatty]

Is the investor that Mubadala thing?

Also, is the hope (that AMD is dying in everything) because then they would be forced to come under different management, or is the hope because it would lower the stock prices to be ripe for takeover?

 

[ShintaiDK]

Is the investor that Mubadala thing?

Also, is the hope (that AMD is dying in everything) because then they would be forced to come under different management, or is the hope because it would lower the stock prices to be ripe for takeover?

At the current stock price. I think we reached the point where AMD cant be sold at any price. So price isn't the issue. But rather what the package contains and what the future prospect is.

 

[frozentundra123456]

At the current stock price. I think we reached the point where AMD cant be sold at any price. So price isn't the issue. But rather what the package contains and what the future prospect is.

Yea, stock price today is back to floating around the all time low.

 

[dark zero]

AMD death is so near that Intel is so happy since they will get all AMD patents for free and they will have a free card to cancel/buy VIA and Dm&P (Vortex86)

 

[Fjodor2001]

Yea, stock price today is back to floating around the all time low.

I have to admit this is a bit worrisome. To me AMD stock seems like a lottery ticket at the moment. In the best scenario, Zen turns out good (reasonably close to comparable Intel performance levels) and they make a healthy profit from it, both from the server and HEDT segments. Zen based APUs with HBM will then continue the trend, and in 3-4 years could also be the base for next gen consoles. If all turns out well, AMD could easily increase revenue and profit several 100% percent, since they are starting from such a low level. The stock would of course rocket accordingly.

However it could also be that all of this fails, and then AMD will be more or less gone, except perhaps for the GPU division.

The upside of this scenario is likely huge (and the downside too). So it is kind of strange (and worrisome) that not more people are interested in buying this lottery ticket...

 

[Dresdenboy]

Yea, stock price today is back to floating around the all time low.

Someone is offering a lot at this level which is soaked up by many buyers. Whatever this is. Maybe covering shorts.

 

[ShintaiDK]

However it could also be that all of this fails, and then AMD will be more or less gone, except perhaps for the GPU division.

If Zen fails AMDs GPU division goes down with it. That is something AMD made sure of. Only way to save anything from the GPU division would be to do a spinoff very soon. But they are running out of time fast. And it may not even be possible anymore.

The upside of this scenario is likely huge (and the downside too). So it is kind of strange (and worrisome) that not more people are interested in buying this lottery ticket...

For the same reason they didn't throw the money after the regular lottery. The chance of winning is close to zero. The only ones making money on AMD stocks is professional traders fooling emotional/attached people.

 

[dark zero]

People already decided the destiny of AMD and is a dirty tombstone on an isolated place.
The next to die will be NVIDIA and it will be WAY easier to take down since they don't have any CPU.

And yeah if Intel locks nVIDIA down, they lose some money after some generations, but that's the reason why they are doing Kabylake. They are going to take down the dGPU industry at one shot once AMD is down by cutting nVIDIA, but making the loss less sensitive to the average Joe.
Maybe they will start with the mobile segment.

And yeah, sounds radical, but also can explain why Apple is investing a lot on their chips. Maybe their time with x86 will end soon and just like Power PC, they migrate now to ARM who are the new mainstream.

And about AMD GPU division, it will be end sold.. Maybe Apple ends buying it due their good Open GL, CL and Vulkan performance. Also those patents could be useful at last.

 

[Fjodor2001]

For the same reason they didn't throw the money after the regular lottery. The chance of winning is close to zero. The only ones making money on AMD stocks is professional traders fooling emotional/attached people.

There are lots of stocks that have looked dead over the years, only to turn around and skyrocket. E.g. small biotech companies and what not. We won't know until we know... and then it's too late to buy the lottery ticket... You have to take big risks to win big.