[JPR] GPU market up—Intel and Nvidia graphics winners in Q4, AMD down

[f1sherman]

Graphics chips:

http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases...l-and-nvidia-graphics-winners-in-q4-amd-down/

Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, announced estimated graphics chip shipments and suppliers’ market share for 2013 4Q.
The quarter was the second quarter in a row to show a gain in shipments, up 1.6% quarter-to-quarter, and up 2% compared to the same quarter last year.

Quick highlights:

• AMD’s overall unit shipments decreased 10.4%, quarter-to-quarter, Intel’s total shipments increased 5.1% from last quarter, and Nvidia’s increased 3.4%.
• The attach rate of GPUs to PCs for the quarter was 137% and 34% of PCs had discrete GPUs that means 66% of the PCs are using embedded graphics.
• The overall PC market increased 1.8% quarter-to-quarter, but declined 8.5% year-to-year.

The quarter in general

• AMD’s shipments of desktop APUs (heterogeneous GPU/CPUs) jumped 15% from the previous quarter but declined 26.7% in notebooks. AMD’s discrete desktop shipments increased 1.8%, and notebook discrete shipments declined 6.7%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments decreased 10.4%. Notebook build cycles are specific, and AMD was late with its new parts.
• Intel’s desktop processor-graphics EPG shipments increased from last quarter by 5.2%, and Notebooks increased by 5.1%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments increased 5.1%.
• Nvidia’s desktop discrete shipments were up 3.6% from last quarter; and its notebook discrete shipments increased 3.2%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments increased 3.4%.
• Year-to-year this quarter AMD’s overall PC graphics shipments declined 5.4%, Intel increased 5.4%, Nvidia increased 0.9%, and Others fell 77% from last year.

Add-in-boards:

http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases/details/add-in-board-market-up-in-q4-nvidia-gains-market-share/

TIBURON, CA—February 20, 2014— Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, announced estimated graphics add-in-board (AIB) shipments and suppliers’ market share for Q4, 2013.

The quater in general

JPR found that AIB shipments during 2013 4Q behaved according to past years with regard to seasonality, but the increase was less than the 10-year average.
AIB shipments increased 3.% from the last quarter (the 10-year average is 12%).

• Total AIB shipments increased this quarter to 15 million units.
• AMD’s quarter-to-quarter total desktop AIB unit shipments decreased 3%.
• Nvidia’s quarter-to-quarter unit shipments increased 3.6%.
• Nvidia continues to hold a dominant market share position at 65%.
• Figures for the other suppliers were flat to declining.

table 1: AIB market shares

 

[Silverforce11]

You mean all that crazy mining demand didn't do squat?

 

[f1sherman]

It did. Brought more income (somewhat moot due to graphics division including console)

But clearly AMD supply chain has been broken due to component shortages.

Also:
http://www.extremetech.com/gaming/1...urrency-mining-could-kill-amds-gaming-efforts

Beyond making life fun for reviewers, who have to take practical cost considerations into account when evaluating different GPUs,
there’s another problem here.

AMD’s entire GPU strategy since October of 2013 has relied on steep price cuts to fuel sales.
The Radeon R9 290 and R9 290X were killer cards partly because they equaled or bettered Nvidia’s GTX 780 or GTX Titan, but at far lower price points.

These price trends are particularly worrisome given that AMD has just launched its new Mantle API. It’s essential that AMD illustrates strong demand for its graphics cards in gaming.
GPUs sold into the cryptocurrency market at huge prime premiums could wind up driving gamers away from AMD at the very time Sunnyvale needs to win them over.

 

[ShintaiDK]

You mean all that crazy mining demand didn't do squat?

Nothing. It was a myth that there was an excessive demand due to mining. Even AIBs also denied it. US/CA prices is simply about (US/CA)miners being willing to pay anything for the small supply there is. AMD simply reduced orders at TSMC. TSMC is down to 65-70% utilization for 28nm. So its not like there wasnt capacity.

AMD might have ordered too few Kaveri chips too, unless its a supply issue from GloFo.

 

[SiliconWars]

You mean all that crazy mining demand didn't do squat?

Yes, desktop share went up 1.8%. It's mobile that is cratering, for two reasons.

1) They are very weak in mobile.
2) Something had to give to make way for the consoles.

There are 5 million consoles being sold every quarter that aren't being counted.

 

[Silverforce11]

It's a myth that massive mining farms with hundreds of R290s popped up? One only has to take a peek on the bitcoin forums to realize...

And it's not in the USA either.

The scrypt network hash increases were spectacular, well before the first ASIC prototypes were released. That is a LOT of GPUs, which until very recently, with the new cudaminer, would be nearly all Radeons.

 

[f1sherman]

Yes, desktop share went up 1.8%. It's mobile that is cratering, for two reasons.

Don't confuse shipment increase with market share.

• Nvidia’s desktop discrete shipments were up 3.6% from last quarter

 

[Abwx]

You mean all that crazy mining demand didn't do squat?

Assuming for instance that the US market is about 20% of the
world market uit is likely that the inflated prices in north america
did cost them a sizeable share of the gamers market, this would
account for a few % of the total market numbers in the 3-5%
range wich is quite substancial.

 

[f1sherman]

It's a myth that massive mining farms with hundreds of R290s popped up? One only has to take a peek on the bitcoin forums to realize...

And it's not in the USA either.

The scrypt network hash increases were spectacular, well before the first ASIC prototypes were released. That is a LOT of GPUs, which until very recently, with the new cudaminer, would be nearly all Radeons.

That's all true. But I don't even have to look at Steam charts to know that AMD is cratering over there.

I.e. gamers going Nvidia due to AMD prices.
It's gaming, high-end in particular (often downplayed in the big picture in this very forum) that is insulating Nvidia from PC slumber.

 

[USER8000]

Don't confuse shipment increase with market share.

So AMD and Nvidia BOTH sold more graphics card than last quarter.

Awesome news for both companies.

 

[Keysplayr]

Copy and paste from another forum, but here is my take:

What happened is, there are FAR more gamers than miners. AMD cards being priced gouged "Seemed" like it was great for AMD, but what it did was put their cards out of reach, or out of the realm of what gamers know they should be paying or are used to paying. This in turn gave Nvidia a boost in sales because gamers who were intending to purchase an AMD card for gaming, didn't, and went with an equally performing lower priced Nvidia card. Makes sense to me.

I don't think this effects lower end AMD cards like the 260X/7790 and such. Or do people also use these for mining?

 

[OCGuy]

Hitting that marketshare prediction isnt looking likely.

 

[el etro]

What happened is, there are FAR more gamers than miners. AMD cards being priced gouged "Seemed" like it was great for AMD, but what it did was put their cards out of reach, or out of the realm of what gamers know they should be paying or are used to paying. This in turn gave Nvidia a boost in sales because gamers who were intending to purchase an AMD card for gaming, didn't, and went with an equally performing lower priced Nvidia card. Makes sense to me.

This.

Manufacturers(and principally retailers) hope of miners boosting VGA sales is so illusionary than the hope of making easy money for the majority of miners.

 

[ICDP]

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the mining craze not really take off until very late Q4?

AMD cards including R9 290/X were still at MSRP until mid Dec in the US and never rose above MSRP here in Europe at all. So the mining craze effect would not really show until the Q1 2014 results are made public.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the mining craze not really take off until very late Q4?

AMD cards including R9 290/X were still at MSRP until mid Dec in the US and never rose above MSRP here in Europe at all. So the mining craze effect would not really show until the Q1 2014 results are made public.

One of AMDs AIBs (VisionTek) statement the 7th feb. wasnt due to demand, but lack of components.

I repeat, Its simply a myth that mining should have caused this. Also the north american market is relatively small. Something like 12-15% of global demand.

 

[ICDP]

One of AMDs AIBs (VisionTek) statement the 7th feb. wasnt due to demand, but lack of components.

I repeat, Its simply a myth that mining should have caused this. Also the north american market is relatively small. Something like 12-15% of global demand.

I don't claim AMD's supply issues are purely as a result of the mining craze, but it is certainly does have an effect to some extent. Clearly in the US there are supply issues but here in the UK at least it has been possible to purchase all AMD products at MSRP.

One of the main suppliers here in the UK has stated that AMD sales have tripled and Nvidia sales have doubled since the new year. So it is great to see GPU sales are up all round. In the past decade AMD/ATI have almost always been playing second fiddle to Nvidia in sales. I don't expect that to change significantly.

My point was that we won't truly know the impact mining has had on AMD sales until the Q1 results are published. After all the mining craze only really took off in mid/late Dec.

 

[realibrad]

AMD does not have the ability to focus on PC and consoles with out one being hurt.

AMD is making the graphics in the Wii, and the APU in Xbox One and PS4. The combined sales for the two new consoles are over 8 million. 8 millions is a pretty big number, and the PS4 is having supply issues. I would bet that the console chips are eating into the ability to supply the market.

There is no doubt that currently, AMD PC gpus were in high demand for mining, but supply was limited, so price just went up. Demand did increase because of miners, but supply also decreased, so you saw prices jump pretty quickly. It's true that less units were sold, but that does not mean mining did not have an effect on price.

I think AMD is slowly pulling away from PC to focus on consoles. Once you see the consoles slow down, you will likely see more PC parts shipped. Again, 8 million units sold for Xbox and PS is quite a bit in the few months they have been out. And while the profit margin on those chips has to be pretty low, its market share. You now have a lot of devs using AMD hardware, and that hardware is closer to PC hardware than its ever been. So while these numbers seem bad in the short term, its possible it could be pretty good in the long.

Then again, this is AMD, and they are pretty amazing at mucking up success.

 

[OCGuy]

This was fairly forseeable due to the limited supply of Hawaii based cards and a stagnant discreet low end.

Console sales has nothing to do with this, since the margin on their $100 kick on each sale is low.

 

[Gloomy]

Actually I think consoles has a little to do with this. Sony just announced PS4 shortages.

If there really are component shortages then my bet is on GDDR5. :|

 

[realibrad]

This was fairly forseeable due to the limited supply of Hawaii based cards and a stagnant discreet low end.

Console sales has nothing to do with this, since the margin on their $100 kick on each sale is low.

I'm not talking about profits. I was saying that AMD cant make enough PC hardware, because all of the resources are going toward consoles.

 

[Genx87]

Heh another supply chain issue for AMD?

 

[OCGuy]

I'm not talking about profits. I was saying that AMD cant make enough PC hardware, because all of the resources are going toward consoles.

Is that just a hunch or is that stated somewhere?

 

[SiliconWars]

Even if AMD did react to the mining craze, they'd only just be getting the chips back now.

The console talk is that the PS4 supply issue will be over my April. It's possible - though imo very unlikely - that AMD is the cause of it but if so it'll be over soon anyway. I just doubt it very much that AMD would choose to risk under-supply of something that they know is going to sell. Note that even with the "shortage", Sony already beat their best-case target of 5 million by March - http://www.gameranx.com/updates/id/20517/article/ps4-uk-supply-shortages-to-end-by-april---sony/

The switch to GF makes the story interesting too, for various reasons.

AMD really is putting everything into consoles though, because it's guaranteed money.

 

[Dman8777]

I would think that one of the agreements for the Xbox and PS contracts would be priority production for those platforms. That means less production capacity for other products. That's my guess.

 

[Dribble]

Copy and paste from another forum, but here is my take:

What happened is, there are FAR more gamers than miners. AMD cards being priced gouged "Seemed" like it was great for AMD, but what it did was put their cards out of reach, or out of the realm of what gamers know they should be paying or are used to paying. This in turn gave Nvidia a boost in sales because gamers who were intending to purchase an AMD card for gaming, didn't, and went with an equally performing lower priced Nvidia card. Makes sense to me.

I don't think this effects lower end AMD cards like the 260X/7790 and such. Or do people also use these for mining?

Think people are getting far to carried away with mining which is a recent thing pretty well focused on NA only. AMD mostly lost out because their mobile solutions aren't up to scratch. Their architecture isn't power efficient enough and their drivers don't work well enough. As mobile sales > desktop sales that's very important.

It's a real problem for AMD going forward as their current solution has been to release cards with even higher power requirements. You can get away with that in high end desktop but it's a dead end for laptops - they can't even compete well with Kepler, let alone Maxwell.