Phynaz
Lifer
- Mar 13, 2006
- 10,140
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what do you guys think it'll take to rejuvenate the industry? it surely cant just be more performance and less power...can it?
Pretty much.
And software that can use the power.
what do you guys think it'll take to rejuvenate the industry? it surely cant just be more performance and less power...can it?
what do you guys think it'll take to rejuvenate the industry? it surely cant just be more performance and less power...can it?
I think we'll see Nvidia using TSMC 16nmFF in 2016 including their high end range if that paper which had that Q1 2016 for GP100 is true (most likely true for production or the Tesla/Quardo version of it and then a GeForce Version later in the year).
I hope there is a 512-bit memory buss with 3D memory GP100 :awe:.
Sorry but it's just a downward slope for desktpo GPUs. Don't get me wrong: dGPUs will be still be here for a few years but don't kid yourself into thinking that the glory days will ever return. Just aint happening. Mobile has had far too big of an impact. Nowadays every first computing device 99% of the time for students and up and coming teenagers is an ultrabook, macbook or tablet. 15 years ago, they were all desktop PCs.
Of the students I know, how many bought a desktop PC as their computing device? Maybe 1 out of 50, nearly all will be using some form of macbook, ultrabook or tablet.
Good news though. Mobile dGPus will always be faster than integrated. So if any of the above wants a gaming portable, there are options out there which AMD and NV provide.
Anyway....Computing has changed, buying habits have changed, and while dGPUs will be around for a few years yet. We aren't returning to the volume of dGPUs selling like they were 10 years ago. Not happening, sorry.
148mm2 GM107 on now ancient 28nm process is what, 3.5-4x faster than the best IGP? 16nm will supposedly be in volume production in Q2 of next year, so it's possible Nvidia is skipping 20nm for GPU's. Speaking from memory (which means I could be a little off), 16nm will have 2.3x transistor density and 2x the power savings. Just shrinking GM107 and applying the power savings alone would put it at half the size and twice performance. And that is without architecture improvements (Pascal, Volta...)
So I disagree. GM107, on a long-in-the-tooth node process, crushes the best IGP solution available and there is no imminent release of anything that is going to catch it.
As for higher prices, unless Nvidia starts bleeding both volume and market share, premiums are the new norm. As RussianSensation has said, the current stagnation of not having any new high end, coupled with the glut of graphically undemanding or poorly coded games have attributed to this large decline.
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So volume itself is pointless. It comes down to revenue and profit. As long as PC gamers are willing to pay extra for discrete performance, the revenue will be just fine (& discrete GPU isn't going the dinosaurs).
Certainly, as we see integrated in the current gen without faster GDDR5 bandwidth its not competitive versus a 148mm2 part, but it is very competitive against <100mm2 parts which removed that market. It was only a few years ago where the low end was a tiny chip, now the low end is 148mm2. It doesn't take much to see in a few years time, the low end will be 200mm2.
Discrete low end needs to be much faster than integrated to justify itself in OEM builds, it cannot be slightly faster.
Once APUs get faster memory, they will be able to compete better on a direct mm2 vs mm2 (AMD's GPU can at least, obviously Intel keeps on improving their architecture too). Currently with poor bandwidth, its at a disadvantage.
Looking at NV, they sold less but made more money. It's obvious due to the prices being massively raised. Selling prior $200-300 mid-range for $500+ helps with revenue, no doubt.
but how long until good enough status[with the current status quo]?
Certainly, as we see integrated in the current gen without faster GDDR5 bandwidth its not competitive versus a 148mm2 part, but it is very competitive against <100mm2 parts which removed that market. It was only a few years ago where the low end was a tiny chip, now the low end is 148mm2. It doesn't take much to see in a few years time, the low end will be 200mm2.
Discrete low end needs to be much faster than integrated to justify itself in OEM builds, it cannot be slightly faster.
Once APUs get faster memory, they will be able to compete better on a direct mm2 vs mm2 (AMD's GPU can at least, obviously Intel keeps on improving their architecture too). Currently with poor bandwidth, its at a disadvantage.
Looking at NV, they sold less but made more money. It's obvious due to the prices being massively raised. Selling prior $200-300 mid-range for $500+ helps with revenue, no doubt.
So volume itself is pointless. It comes down to revenue and profit. As long as PC gamers are willing to pay extra for discrete performance, the revenue will be just fine (& discrete GPU isn't going the dinosaurs).
As I've said many a time. It will be good enough when we see real-time raytracing (spectral rendering at that) at 120+ fps, and w/e resolution is feasible at a given time.but how long until good enough status[with the current status quo]?
I don't disagree. I guess I wasn't entirely clear: I don't think it's doom and gloom, I give the dGPU market a good 5-7 years.
I'm surprised the mining craze didn't help AMD more, as many people thought would happen.
I think Valve is screwing up a huge opportunity with their steam machine initiative. They should have just built 2-3 spec'd machines put inside their great looking custom case with price tiers $400, $600, and $800, refresh the products with better hardware within the same price bracket every 18-24 months (kind of like phones and tablets), and either subsidize the cost of the hardware OR include steam wallet money with each purchase. Leave the ultra high end stuff, overclocking, and constant upgrading to the DIY and boutique crowds.
what do you guys think it'll take to rejuvenate the industry? it surely cant just be more performance and less power...can it?
Could that be a sign that the new Beema and Kaveri APUs are selling well?AMDs shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs increased 16.7% from the previous quarter, and increased 10.3% in notebooks.
ps. The masses will be just fine with APUs.
It's those masses that fund GPU development. Once they are gone so are discreet GPUs.
Could that be a sign that the new Beema and Kaveri APUs are selling well?
It's those masses that fund GPU development. Once they are gone so are discreet GPUs.
The masses are fine with iGPUs for the last 10 years, I havent seen the dGPUs gone so far.
10 years. Really.
And you haven't seen the fact that GPU sales have dropped by half? Read the first post.
It's those masses that fund GPU development. Once they are gone so are discreet GPUs.