JPR: Overall GPU shipments dropped 13% in Q1’2015 from last quarter

[csbin]

http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases...ments-dropped-13-in-q12015-from-last-quarter/

AMD’s shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs, decreased -22.6% from the previous quarter, and were down -15.0% in notebooks. AMD’s discrete desktop shipments decreased -14.55% from last quarter, and notebook discrete shipments decreased -13.6%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments decreased -17.8% from the previous quarter. AMD is bringing out a wide range of new products for this year and hopes to pick up sales from them.

Intel’s desktop processor embedded graphics (EPGs) shipments decreased from last quarter by -12.0%, and notebooks decreased by -12.0%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments decreased -12.0% from last quarter. The company’s overall sales were helped by devices for IoT but not enough to offset the overall decline of Q1 in the PC industry.

Nvidia’s desktop discrete shipments were down -6.96% from last quarter; and the company’s notebook discrete shipments decreased -20.8%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipment decreased -13.5% from last quarter. The company saw strength in gaming from North America and China which helped it buck a down quarter for the industry.

 

[ViRGE]

On a quarterly basis, Q1 is always a tough quarter. You just can't beat Christmas.

It's the year-over-year numbers that are more telling. Unfortunately Jon isn't publishing those for free.

 

[antihelten]

I'm a bit surprised that Nvidia hasn't managed to pick up any market share whatsoever, compared to the same quarter last year (in fact losing a small bit). I would have imagined that 6 months of 970/980 sales would have had a bigger effect.

 

[boxleitnerb]

This is including iGPUs, totally different market segment. Low end beging cannibalized by Intel. dGPU numbers nicht show the increase you mentioned.

 

[antihelten]

This is including iGPUs, totally different market segment. Low end beging cannibalized by Intel. dGPU numbers nicht show the increase you mentioned.

Do you have a link to the dGPU numbers by any chance?, the only thing I could spot in the article linked in the OP was this:

Total discrete GPU (desktop and notebook) shipments from the last quarter decreased -13.66% and decreased -14.28% from Q1 2014.

If Nvidia numbers are up, then AMDs must have been really bad, given that the total was down by 14.28%, and AMD only has ~30% percent of the discrete market to begin with. Like "down by 50% or more" bad.

 

[Hitman928]

Do you have a link to the dGPU numbers by any chance?, the only thing I could spot in the article linked in the OP was this:



If Nvidia numbers are up, then AMDs must have been really bad, given that the total was down by 14.28%, and AMD only has ~30% percent of the discrete market to begin with. Like "down by 50% or more" bad.

If the numbers in the op after the table are accurate, then amd to nvidia market share stayed about the same in this quarter versus last, with a 1-2 percentage point swing in favor of Nvidia.

 

[antihelten]

If the numbers in the op after the table are accurate, then amd to nvidia market share stayed about the same in this quarter versus last, with a 1-2 percentage point swing in favor of Nvidia.

The numbers in the table are total graphics chips, not discrete GPUs.

 

[ViRGE]

Do you have a link to the dGPU numbers by any chance?, the only thing I could spot in the article linked in the OP was this:

JPR publishes the data for discrete later on in the quarter.

 

[antihelten]

JPR publishes the data for discrete later on in the quarter.

Gotcha, I also just realised I probably misread boxleitnerb, due to the typo (at least I'm assuming it's a typo: nicht=might)

 

[sontin]

It seems that nVidia won market share in Q1:

The Gaming PC segment, where higher-end GPUs are used, was a bright spot in the market in the quarter. Nvidia’s Maxwell-based AIBs continued to do well and the company even managed to boost its market share in desktop.

http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases...ments-dropped-13-in-q12015-from-last-quarter/

 

[Mondozei]

Jon Peddie Research is a f---ing mess. First, why even include integrated Intel GPUs?

Second, quarter from quarter is meaningless. Everyone knows that Q4 is where the big holiday sales are. It's year over year. Also, "PC gaming graphics" is hopelessly muddled.

It includes GPUs to gaming laptops, a niche market(it's the truth and we all know it), with the much bigger desktop GPUs for gaming.

I'm waiting for the people with brains(i.e. Kantar, IDC etc).

 

[ShintaiDK]

YoY is the interesting numbers. But as indiviual products its quite clear that AMDs desktop APUs is just not selling at all.

I would guess the 80/20 ratio in discrete graphics have been reached as well. nVidia is still hammering AMD in the desktop segment.

 

[5150Joker]

Jon Peddie Research is a f---ing mess. First, why even include integrated Intel GPUs?

Second, quarter from quarter is meaningless. Everyone knows that Q4 is where the big holiday sales are. It's year over year. Also, "PC gaming graphics" is hopelessly muddled.

It includes GPUs to gaming laptops, a niche market(it's the truth and we all know it), with the much bigger desktop GPUs for gaming.

I'm waiting for the people with brains(i.e. Kantar, IDC etc).

Notebook gaming is overtaking or already has overtaken desktop's dgpu market. It's not the niche you characterize it as.

YoY is the interesting numbers. But as indiviual products its quite clear that AMDs desktop APUs is just not selling at all.

I would guess the 80/20 ratio in discrete graphics have been reached as well. nVidia is still hammering AMD in the desktop segment.

Indeed, AMD is probably getting slaughtered with the new Witcher 3 + Batman combo being given with the 900 series cards (no love for us TitanX owners). What hurts AMD further is they failed to reveal any new information (besides it having HBM) about their upcoming card and are waiting for launch so it gives NVIDIA ample time to keep chipping away at them. When they do finally launch, the 980 Ti will take the winds out of their sails and we'll probably see a price drop for the older Maxwell's at the same time. Additionally, it's pretty obvious the AIB market continues to shrink with Intel's iGPU chipping away at the low end in addition to tablets/smartphones. That's why I maintain that at the end of the day, there will only be one player in the dGPU business and that is certainly looking like it will be NVIDIA. Looking at the business long term, discrete PC gaming will become a very small niche with a lot of users moving to low end integrated solutions or cloud gaming. Seems NVIDIA knows this and that is why they are pushing GRID so hard.

 

[Cloudfire777]

13% market share for AMD including the APUs lol.
They are soon non existent. Nvidia have surpassed them with just dGPUs

 

[Cloudfire777]

Developement the last 5 years:


Intel

Nvidia

AMD

 

[Hitman928]

The numbers in the table are total graphics chips, not discrete GPUs.

Yes, I know, but in the paragraphs before the table in the link, they break down discrete percentages as well. Using those you can figure Nvidia improved a couple of percentage points in market share in 1Q, but it's not an exact calculation.

 

[antihelten]

Yes, I know, but in the paragraphs before the table in the link, they break down discrete percentages as well. Using those you can figure Nvidia improved a couple of percentage points in market share in 1Q, but it's not an exact calculation.

I should probably have been more exact. The discussion was about discrete GPU market share year on year, not quarter on quarter

 

[RussianSensation]

Additionally, it's pretty obvious the AIB market continues to shrink with Intel's iGPU chipping away at the low end in addition to tablets/smartphones. That's why I maintain that at the end of the day, there will only be one player in the dGPU business and that is certainly looking like it will be NVIDIA. Looking at the business long term, discrete PC gaming will become a very small niche with a lot of users moving to low end integrated solutions or cloud gaming. Seems NVIDIA knows this and that is why they are pushing GRID so hard.

The discrete GPU market is shrinking in the context of the overall market if we count APUs from Intel. That doesn't mean the overall dGPU market is suddenly going from 13-17 million GPUs down to 1-2 million GPUs sold per quarter. Sure, it's declining but not as dramatically as you seem to imply. Almost all of the declines are happening on the AMD side since AMD stopped shipping much product to OEMs. That should resume starting with Q3 2015 and forward and continue to increase with 14nm/16nm GPUs and the GPU market should recover to 12-14 million units a quarter. That's a ton of discrete graphics cards. We are talking 45-50 million discrete graphics cards are sold a year, way more than XB1, Wii U and PS4 consoles combined! It's hilarious how you are making it sound like discrete GPU market is "shrinking" to the point where only NV remains. :whiste:

https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/...b7Y.jpg&hash=a65c5dc8a5a8a88545e623d9e081d455

Q1 is historically a poor performing quarter and no way should ever outperform Q4:

"Total discrete GPU (desktop and notebook) shipments from the last quarter decreased -13.66% and decreased -14.28% fromQ1 2014. Sales of discrete GPUs fluctuate due to a variety of factors (timing, memory pricing, etc.), new product introductions, and the influence of integrated graphics."

"Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs) that use discrete GPUs decreased -8.79% from last quarter—less than the PC market."

Obviously since so many gamers already upgrade to GTX700/R9 200 and GTX900/900M series, there will be a slow-down in GPU sales until next generation of cards come out, especially 14nm/16nm HBM2 designs. Also, GPU upgrades happen in waves. It's cycles and major events spur GPU ugprades:

1) A new OS - Windows 10
2) A new architecture/generation of GPUs - 14nm cards will see major upgrades
3) New demanding PC games. Most of the PC gaming market has no interest in upgrading if the performance is not there (760 -> 960 after 1.5 years) or if most PC games are just console ports. Sooner or later older GPUs will become outdated by next gen games and that's when upgrading happens.

"Overall, the CAGR from 2014 to 2017 is now -3%."

Once we roll into Q4 2015, GPU sales will pick up again.

As we approach the 2nd half of PS4/XB1 generation, more gamers will realize it's better to build a gaming PC/buy a gaming laptop than to buy outdated $200-250 consoles. Major performance increases with Pascal/Arctic Islands and Volta/AMD's equivalent should keep the discrete GPU market healthy in 2016 and in 2018 to 2020. By that in 2019-2012, PS5/XB2 should launch and the cycle will repeat.

PC gaming market is strong but it doesn't grow like smartphone sales because people don't upgrade on autopilot every 2 years.

 

[5150Joker]

Desktop AIB is a dying market, don't care what you say with your wall of text:

Those attach rates are hitting rock bottom. What is going up is integrated graphics but even at that AMD is failing miserably. And they are losing market share because they choose not to ship products? HILARIOUS, keep telling yourself that and you may believe it someday. They might be clearing product to make room for their R390X but that doesn't take away from the reality that they were sitting on piles of cards nobody wanted for a long long time. AMD currently reminds me of 3dfx, they also promised a very fast product before going the way of the dodo.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Desktop AIB is a dying market, don't care what you say with your wall of text:

Those attach rates are hitting rock bottom. What is going up is integrated graphics but even at that AMD is failing miserably. And they are losing market share because they choose not to ship products? HILARIOUS, keep telling yourself that and you may believe it someday. They might be clearing product to make room for their R390X but that doesn't take away from the reality that they were sitting on piles of cards nobody wanted for a long long time. AMD currently reminds me of 3dfx, they also promised a very fast product before going the way of the dodo.

Yep. There is only 1 winner in the (combined) graphics segment with a 3.8% growth. And they make CPUs with IGPs.

Desktop APUs is an epic flop, there is no other word for it. Mobile APUs is almost stable. And they should be able to stabilize for a while with Carrizo. The future after that have to be seen.

Its also known that AMD stuffed the channel and sat on inventory that rapidly went towards unsellable with writedowns. Nobody cares about the 390X volume wise, because its a niche product. Even revenue wise its a niche product. What matters is the lower models.