Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

[Stokely]

We'll see, it's possible but it may not happen quite that neatly.

Trump is visibly and audibly on the downslide. We've all seen in many times, sometimes in parents and other loved ones. They hit an age cliff. I also don't give one single shit about him if he loses the election. Being ignored would be the absolute worst punishment for him, living out his days like a shnook as Henry Hill said in Goodfellas.

If he loses this election I reckon he's done being a force. The GOP will eventually muster their rat courage to turn on him, once most of his cult aka the Republican voting public sees him as a weak loser. When it happens they'll all join in at once and it'll be "we were never at war with Oceana". They never liked Trump, nossir.

 

[dullard]

Trump is gonna get a net 3% bump from the Kennedy vote I think, that puts them neck to neck in polling ... add in the electorate and it goes to Trump.

I just randomly chose a poll (not that I'm endorsing any one poll) that had multiple options and looked over the last month of polling results.

Here was just after Biden dropped out (left) vs the latest poll (right):

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_U76IOiF.pdf

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_Dgf6Oqh.pdf

If you look at the numbers, Trump was essentially unchanged. But the "other" options dropped from a total of 15% to a total of 10%. All of that change (5% of registered voters) went to Harris.

This might not stick, as she is in her honeymoon phase and there is always the October surprise. But, I don't think that we can just assign 3% to Trump. It is more or less that the Trump voters are rigid (you either love him or hate him) and from here on out depends on if the voters go to Harris or stay home.

 

[cytg111]

I just randomly chose a poll (not that I'm endorsing any one poll) that had multiple options and looked over the last month of polling results.

Here was just after Biden dropped out (left) vs the latest poll (right):
View attachment 105932

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_U76IOiF.pdf

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_Dgf6Oqh.pdf

If you look at the numbers, Trump was essentially unchanged. But the "other" options dropped from a total of 15% to a total of 10%. All of that change (5% of registered voters) went to Harris.

This might not stick, as she is in her honeymoon phase and there is always the October surprise. But, I don't think that we can just assign 3% to Trump. It is more or less that the Trump voters are rigid (you either love him or hate him) and from here on out depends on if the voters go to Harris or stay home.

Alright, so he's only at 5, that translates into a 1.5% boost of the dumbass (assuming Kennedy voters return to their regular scheduled candidates).

 

[Roger Wilco]

Would be glorious if Cruz lost his seat.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826589662716248080

 

[Pens1566]

Would be glorious if Cruz lost his seat.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826589662716248080

I know it's a long shot, but I'm really hoping Hawley loses in MO as well.

 

[Stokely]

It's weird to see Texas that (relatively) close, it's probably closer than FL which went for Obama twice. Obama lost Texas by 11.8 and 15.8 points in the two elections.

Are all the FL non-morons moving to TX? Does that mean I have to? (I want to go North eventually, find some cooler weather! And someplace not run by an asshat like Abbot or Desantis, and/or populated by people that find scum like that appealing)

 

[Meghan54]

Texas bragged about all the Cali transplants it was getting. Guess Texas is reaping what it sowed.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Texas bragged about all the Cali transplants it was getting. Guess Texas is reaping what it sowed.

I can't imagine Texas flipping but it would be so glorious if it did

 

[sdifox]

I can't imagine Texas flipping but it would be so glorious if it did

Democrats should just put up signs that read "Rafael Edward (Alias Ted) Cruz was born in Calgary, Alberta, CANADA."

 

[Meghan54]

I can't imagine Texas flipping but it would be so glorious if it did

I remember reading opinions a few years ago when Texas was boasting about all those Cali transplants they were getting…they opined Texas was willfully blind to the culture the transplants brought with them and its consequences.

Maybe we’re starting to see them.

 

[fskimospy]

I can't imagine Texas flipping but it would be so glorious if it did

Seems very unlikely to me but if it does that's the nightmare scenario for Republicans as there is no plausible path to 270 electoral votes without Texas.

It seems unlikely that Cruz will lose too but I think it's not outside the realm of possibility. People just really hate that guy - even Republicans don't like him, they just hate Democrats more.

 

[K1052]

Seems very unlikely to me but if it does that's the nightmare scenario for Republicans as there is no plausible path to 270 electoral votes without Texas.

It seems unlikely that Cruz will lose too but I think it's not outside the realm of possibility. People just really hate that guy - even Republicans don't like him, they just hate Democrats more.

If I were the dems I would invest real long term resources in making this happen. We need to compete in either FL or TX and the FL Dems are a total unfixable disaster. At least TX is trending the right way for this cycle to cycle.

 

[brycejones]

If I were the dems I would invest real long term resources in making this happen. We need to compete in either FL or TX and the FL Dems are a total unfixable disaster. At least TX is trending the right way for this cycle to cycle.

Is there anyone in Florida to start to build around or is it just infighting like the Michigan gop?

 

[K1052]

Is there anyone in Florida to start to build around or is it just infighting like the Michigan gop?

Nobody obvious to me personally but I don't follow FL politics all that closely.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Remember Ann Richards.

 

[brycejones]

Remember Ann Richards.

Are we storming the Alamo?

 

[MrPickins]

I think it's funny how people treat TX as a monolith. Our state government is pretty much that due to gerrymandering, but the population is more and more purple. Hell we had more votes for Biden in 2020 than all but two states:

2020 United States presidential election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

State or district	Democratic
	Votes	%
Total	81,283,501​	51.31%​
California	11,110,639​	63.48%​
Florida	5,297,045​	47.86%​
Texas	5,259,126​	46.48%​
New York	5,244,886​	60.87%​
Illinois	3,471,915​	57.54%​
Pennsylvania	3,458,229​	49.85%​
Michigan	2,804,040​	50.62%​

Remember Ann Richards.

I was going to say pretty much this. Richards had a lot of love in this state.

 

[K1052]

The growing TX metros will eventually put the state in to play, potentially this decade. Some investment could hustle that up too.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

The growing TX metros will eventually put the state in to play, potentially this decade. Some investment could hustle that up too.

The AffriKKKaner keeps moving Californians there.

 

[Stokely]

Nobody obvious to me personally but I don't follow FL politics all that closely.

I don't follow it as closely as I should, considering I live here.

I liked Stephanie Murphy, but she decided not to run again. Her statement of "I've decided not to seek another term in Congress. Serving Central Florida has been the honor of my life, but it's also been incredibly challenging for my family and me." makes me wonder how many death threats she may have gotten. It's hard to overestimate just how rabid and maniacal the magas can be especially in a state where they have the upper hand.

I like Buddy Dyer, but he's small-time (mayor of Orlando). Mostly we seem to produce walking piles of shit like Rick Scott, Marco Rubio and Matt Gaetz, along with the current big head turd himself Desantis.

I get the impression FL has been "draining the swamp" recently more than ever, taking in Magas from all over. I know a bunch of people in my extended family (Evangelicals) love what that assclown Desantis has been up to. And of course it's always been a retirement joint and old people tend Republican--though seeing that recent poll of boomers favoring Harris was quite the surprise to me I must say. On the other side, the stuff Desantis has been doing has driven away a lot of teachers, which hurts public education even more (not a strength here to begin with) and that drives away people who care about that sort of thing. I know several people that have moved north recently. In short, I think FL has been lost because of the makeup of the people, not the politicians alone.

 

[trenchfoot]

I don't follow it as closely as I should, considering I live here.

I liked Stephanie Murphy, but she decided not to run again. Her statement of "I've decided not to seek another term in Congress. Serving Central Florida has been the honor of my life, but it's also been incredibly challenging for my family and me." makes me wonder how many death threats she may have gotten. It's hard to overestimate just how rabid and maniacal the magas can be especially in a state where they have the upper hand.

I like Buddy Dyer, but he's small-time (mayor of Orlando). Mostly we seem to produce walking piles of shit like Rick Scott, Marco Rubio and Matt Gaetz, along with the current big head turd himself Desantis.

I get the impression FL has been "draining the swamp" recently more than ever, taking in Magas from all over. I know a bunch of people in my extended family (Evangelicals) love what that assclown Desantis has been up to. And of course it's always been a retirement joint and old people tend Republican--though seeing that recent poll of boomers favoring Harris was quite the surprise to me I must say. On the other side, the stuff Desantis has been doing has driven away a lot of teachers, which hurts public education even more (not a strength here to begin with) and that drives away people who care about that sort of thing. I know several people that have moved north recently. In short, I think FL has been lost because of the makeup of the people, not the politicians alone.

I appreciate your insider view of Florida. Thx.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Remember Ann Richards.

Nope

 

[manly]

Seems very unlikely to me but if it does that's the nightmare scenario for Republicans as there is no plausible path to 270 electoral votes without Texas.

It seems unlikely that Cruz will lose too but I think it's not outside the realm of possibility. People just really hate that guy - even Republicans don't like him, they just hate Democrats more.

Beto was within 2% of Cruz, which I believe is the closest any Democrat has gotten statewide in a generation.

If you run a strong candidate against Cruz, you'll have a shot.

 

[hal2kilo]

First of many fights unfortunately, to allow people to vote.

he Supreme Court on Thursday declined to revive parts of a Republican-backed Arizona law that could have barred thousands of voters from casting a ballot in the November presidential contest or voting by mail, but it permitted other controversial requirements of that law to take effect.


The Supreme Court left in place a lower court’s ruling that barred enforcement of the law that required voters to document their US citizenship to vote in this year’s presidential election, but it allowed the state to enforce a requirement that would-be voters document their citizenship before registering to vote in state and local elections.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

I don't see a problem with documenting the legal ability to vote. You live where you say you live and are legally in the US. No problem with that at all.