Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,572
8,471
136
You have issues. Demons are imaginary. Psychosomatic physical manifestations of stress, acknowledged or not are real.

They are also vastly over-stated and used as a God-of-the-Gaps excuse for not bothering to properly investigate or think about anything that requires a bit of thought or work. A justification for ignoring those 'unknown unknowns' (that Rumsfeld made famous).

In that respect they are _exactly_ like demons and Gods.

There's a long list of conditions that were once considered to be 'psychological' and later turned out to have had physical causes all along. And they really have no idea about the actual relationship between this 'psychological' domain and the physical. How does one affect the other? Can you please explain the mechanism involved there, as you feel so confident about it? How exactly does the process work, step-by-step?
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,309
8,627
136
They are also vastly over-stated and used as a God-of-the-Gaps excuse for not bothering to properly investigate or think about anything that requires a bit of thought or work. A justification for ignoring those 'unknown unknowns' (that Rumsfeld made famous).

In that respect they are _exactly_ like demons and Gods.

There's a long list of conditions that were once considered to be 'psychological' and later turned out to have had physical causes all along. And they really have no idea about the actual relationship between this 'psychological' domain and the physical. How does one affect the other? Can you please explain the mechanism involved there, as you feel so confident about it? How exactly does the process work, step-by-step?
Well, what immediately comes to mind is hives:

Yes, stress can cause hives, also known as urticaria or a stress rash. When you're stressed, your body releases chemicals that can cause inflammation and make your skin more sensitive, which can trigger hives. Hives can appear anywhere on the body, but are often found on the face, neck, chest, or arms. They can vary in size and shape, and may be itchy or cause a burning or tingling sensation. Hives usually only last less than 24 hours and go away on their own, but they can come and go in waves and flare up for weeks. If hives last longer than a few days, you should see a doctor. You should also seek immediate medical attention if you have symptoms like fever or swelling of the mouth, tongue, or lips.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,197
13,449
146
They are also vastly over-stated and used as a God-of-the-Gaps excuse for not bothering to properly investigate or think about anything that requires a bit of thought or work. A justification for ignoring those 'unknown unknowns' (that Rumsfeld made famous).

In that respect they are _exactly_ like demons and Gods.

There's a long list of conditions that were once considered to be 'psychological' and later turned out to have had physical causes all along. And they really have no idea about the actual relationship between this 'psychological' domain and the physical. How does one affect the other? Can you please explain the mechanism involved there, as you feel so confident about it? How exactly does the process work, step-by-step?
Stress (like mental, emotional, not just physical) causes the release of cortisol. Long term cortisol availability creates a tolerance, which then creates body-wide inflammation and a weakened immune system. I'll let you figure out what physical effects can result from that.

That's a single example.
 
Reactions: Muse and cytg111

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,181
2,906
136
As someone who used to suffer severe anxiety attacks where for months I thought I was having heart attacks, strokes or who knows what....yeah stress can do a number on you physically. I had weird stuff like left side going numb, medicinal taste in my mouth, tunnel vision and more. These tended to happen when I was relaxed and not anxious at all, which later I learned is par for the course.

Even after the attacks mostly stopped (meds and therapy) for several years I had that tingle you get when someone jumps out and scares you pretty much all the time. Fight or flight response. Not very healthy to spend every day like that but it's also pretty hard to stop it without help.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,185
10,740
136
You can lose a lot more than a few percentage points.

I rode my bicycle for decades in dangerous urban environments, was (and still am) so at one with my bike that it feels like part of my body. I used to ride thoroughfares, but came to realize there was no way to be safe doing so, so nowadays I search for alternate routes. I also do my best to have enough room between me and parked cars that a careless driver opening their door won't injure me. I have been doored a couple times. Got off cheap. A friend of mine had to have his jaw wired together after being doored.

I was so safe on my bike I never wore a helmet in the city until one day, 5 years ago, my physical therapist, when I told her I didn't wear a helmet told me that one accident, one concussion, would change my life forever. Next time I saw her I showed her my helmet! I have worn it routinely since. After a while I asked myself why I didn't also wear it when skating. Then I started wearing it on skates too.

I also wear gloves on my bike, on skates and hiking. Skating and hiking, gloves have saved my skin & ass several times.
I used to not wear a helmet because cheap ones don't fit me well. Then I had an accident that luckily didn't impact my head and I thought "well I guess I should see if more expensive helmets are better." Three years later that helmet was the only thing between my head and a pointed rock. Cracked the helmet, I walked away with zero head pain. Best $70 I've ever spent.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
17,069
14,338
146
As someone who used to suffer severe anxiety attacks where for months I thought I was having heart attacks, strokes or who knows what....yeah stress can do a number on you physically. I had weird stuff like left side going numb, medicinal taste in my mouth, tunnel vision and more. These tended to happen when I was relaxed and not anxious at all, which later I learned is par for the course.

Even after the attacks mostly stopped (meds and therapy) for several years I had that tingle you get when someone jumps out and scares you pretty much all the time. Fight or flight response. Not very healthy to spend every day like that but it's also pretty hard to stop it without help.
Back in the day all that adrenaline and cortisol from something that triggered your fight or flight reflex wasn’t a big deal. You either survived and your body stopped producing them or the bear ate you and it didn’t matter anymore.

Now the bear is work and home stress that lasts for months or years straight.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,572
8,471
136
.
Stress (like mental, emotional, not just physical) causes the release of cortisol. Long term cortisol availability creates a tolerance, which then creates body-wide inflammation and a weakened immune system. I'll let you figure out what physical effects can result from that.

That's a single example.

OK, one example, of _one_ thing that can have a stress-related cause. But the issue is the tendency to ascribe almost _everything_ to psychological causes until proven otherwise (and it tends not to be proven otherwise precisely because once it's declared to be 'psychological' nobody bothers to look for physical causes). Just as once they would have said "God did it" or blamed it on the sufferer not accepting the teachings of Christ.

For Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, for example, sufferers had to go to court before it was admitted that the 'evidence' used by the NHS to declare it to be 'psychological' (basically due to the sufferers wrongly thinking they were ill and thus not making enough of an effort to pull themselves together, hence the treatment was to badger people with it into trying harder to be more active) was hopelessly flawed.


Most case histories I find of my own condition involve people being misdiagnosed with a 'psychological' condition, and then either falling down dead and getting a diagnosis post-mortem, or, if they are lucky, getting a brain scan and being diagnosed in time.

There is a direct line from the old days of declaring things like epilepsy or MS to be the work of Satan and his minions, and deciding things are due to the power of 'the mind'.

It also applies to the tendency to ascribe things that are really caused by social and economic problems to the 'bad thoughts' of individual sufferers. In both cases the mental health crowd are doing the same thing the priesthood traditionally did - diverting attention from the problems caused by people with power.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,095
30,038
146
They are also vastly over-stated and used as a God-of-the-Gaps excuse for not bothering to properly investigate or think about anything that requires a bit of thought or work. A justification for ignoring those 'unknown unknowns' (that Rumsfeld made famous).

In that respect they are _exactly_ like demons and Gods.

There's a long list of conditions that were once considered to be 'psychological' and later turned out to have had physical causes all along. And they really have no idea about the actual relationship between this 'psychological' domain and the physical. How does one affect the other? Can you please explain the mechanism involved there, as you feel so confident about it? How exactly does the process work, step-by-step?

stress = inflammation. inflammation is indicated as the root, or primary component of dozens and dozens of ailments that very much affect us physically.

We can see this at the cellular level and we can see the results in whole organ tissue.

so yeah, we have a pretty good idea about these connections but it is all indeed very complicated to investigate.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,048
10,822
136
I don't know what's worse.. MAGAShrooms or MAGACopium.

Maybe this is both of them combined:

View attachment 106330
That is some wishful thinking. CNN projects Harris winning right now, not that I put much faith in the poll.

One nice thing I've seen some graphs do is size the states based on their electoral weight as opposed to their geographical area. Which still doesn't eliminate the EC effect, but at least better visually represents the "size" of states for election purposes.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
11,541
7,965
136
That is some wishful thinking. CNN projects Harris winning right now, not that I put much faith in the poll.

One nice thing I've seen some graphs do is size the states based on their electoral weight as opposed to their geographical area. Which still doesn't eliminate the EC effect, but at least better visually represents the "size" of states for election purposes.

I don't trust Conservaterrorist News Network one bit.

One thing we know for sure.. MAGA/ Incels have their minds made up.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,476
3,974
126
The Democrats manage to take all the swing states and FL, but lose NY and CA?
That was a joke map. It flips almost all big EC states--completely ignoring polls or historical voting--just to show a point that swing states alone are not enough.

I would have to say that right now, my money would be on the Fox News power rankings if you add Wisconsin to the Harris side. 251 to 251. The remaining states being toss-ups where Harris has a tiny sliver of a polling lead. That said, there have been almost no swing-state-specific polls post convention or post RFK dropping out.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,877
36,870
136
That was a joke map. It flips almost all big EC states--completely ignoring polls or historical voting--just to show a point that swing states alone are not enough.

I would have to say that right now, my money would be on the Fox News power rankings if you add Wisconsin to the Harris side. 251 to 251. The remaining states being toss-ups where Harris has a tiny sliver of a polling lead. That said, there have been almost no swing-state-specific polls post convention or post RFK dropping out.

We haven't even really gotten much post convention polling especially from the better pollsters yet, will probably this week. Takes time to get in the field.
 
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