Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

[igor_kavinski]

I was eating dinner once (Frontera Grill in Chicago) and ~15 secret service agents rushed in. Obama passed through moments later. Stopped and shook everyone's hands and went on to the fancier sister restaurant next door (Topolobampo). As I left the restaurant the whole block was sectioned off with police cars everywhere you look. Beforehand, there was nothing, no signs of anything. But I had been told by the waitstaff that Rick Bayless was warned ahead of time of Obama's visit.

Similar story except I was in Bur Dubai and my residential building was right next to someone's gated palace. 11 AM on a Saturday or Sunday, I go out to get something to eat and suddenly see police and SOLDIERS everywhere. Nightmarishly tall. They were not letting anyone go to the shops and told them to get back in the building. I looked at the tall African American killing machine in front of me with puppy eyes and told him, I need to get water. He said, go quickly! I ran to the shop, got a 1.5 liter bottle of water and some snacks (don't remember what) and ran back, fearing now they wouldn't let me into the building. The same soldier stopped me again asking where I was going and no one was allowed anywhere on that street. I pointed to my building and told him that I lived there and just wanted to get back in. And he gestured to me with his chin to go! I hurriedly went back in. Got out in the evening and things were back to normal. Didn't think much of it that day. Next day, I saw in the newspaper that Bush Jr. visited Dubai (this was 2006 or 2007).

 

[K1052]

Obama and Clinton are not intimidating people, quite the opposite. They are up front ingratiating. JD Vance is anything but.

JD is the coworker you see in the break room who you hope does not start trying to talk to you.

 

[gothuevos]

Bad poll for Kamala...Biden was consistently up much higher at this point last year. These +2% margins are still an EC loss for her, especially if you believe that as in 2016 and 2020, polls continue to underestimate Trump's support.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1828796990366597594

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Obama and Clinton are not intimidating people, quite the opposite. They are up front ingratiating. JD Vance is anything but.

Bush did pretty good with normal folks too. I forgot what his day to day dealings were but I remember them being normal and positive.

 

[K1052]

Bad poll for Kamala...Biden was consistently up much higher at this point last year. These +2% margins are still an EC loss for her, especially if you believe that as in 2016 and 2020, polls continue to underestimate Trump's support.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1828796990366597594

Trump's EC advantage is mostly gone now so the national PV threshold needed for a win is also altered. Anyway this poll not exactly a major change from previous and RV polling is becoming irrelevant since we are almost at Labor Day.

 

[VRAMdemon]

Learning from Biden's mistakes with the mute button.

It may be just straight reverse psychology. Trump was almost certainly going to demand the mics be on all the time so he could shout over her. So instead, the Harris camp demand this, knowing that Trump et al. are reflexively contrarians, and will thus demand that the mics are muted. You also get this nice tag line:

Trump’s campaign has argued that when they agreed to the ABC debate with Harris at the top of the ticket, they were agreeing to the same guidelines of the previous debate.

“Enough with the games. We accepted the ABC debate under the exact same terms as the CNN debate,” Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller said in a statement.

So if Trump starts making other demands, Harris people can throw this back in their face.^^

The Harris campaign is mostly just trolling him with this mic on/off thing, gleefully keeping him off balance and out of his rhythm.

Trump said:

“We agreed to the same rules, I don’t know, doesn’t matter to me, I’d rather have it probably on, but the agreement was that it would be the same as it was last time. "

This would be entirely anticipated by the Harris campaign and lends credence to the theory that they are trolling him. Keep putting him at odds with his advisors.

I believe she has zero doubts that she could handle Trump in a setting where the mics are always on. This is about keeping Trump off balance because the Harris campaign knows that Trump and his own advisors are at odds right now over how he’s conducting himself publicly. Requesting the microphones being left on exacerbates a rift between Trump and his team. They know that Trump can't act presidential if he’s unfiltered, and the more the American people see that.... However, the mics being on are a real risk to Harris too. It’s tough to look presidential when someone is interrupting you constantly. So she says something like “let’s act like adults” or “wait your turn, I’m speaking.” And he just keeps talking over her, and it becomes an absolute fucking mess. But that risk will still be there to some degree for Harris with the mics on or off. Since they are on the same stage a few feet apart she will still be able to hear his blathering and possibly be distracted by it. He won’t shut up just because the mics are off. we'll see

 

[dullard]

especially if you believe that as in 2016 and 2020, polls continue to underestimate Trump's support.

I'd like to know if this is true for 2024. There are several types of polls, the key ones to this discussion being a poll of all adults vs a poll of likely voters.

In 2016 and 2020 if you polled someone who was not previously political, and didn't vote recently, but supported Trump, then that person probably would not count as a likely voter. That is because that person doesn't vote regularly or recently. Their opinion would go into the all adults category, or maybe the registered voter category. But not in the likely voter category. So, in 2016 especially there was an underrepresented population for Trump.

But, who are the remaining people now that support Trump, will vote in 2024, but didn't vote in 2016 or 2020? Because now in the polls, they would be in the likely voter category if they voted Trump earlier.

Also, in swing states like in NC mentioned here recently, Trump brought in 400k new voters in 2020 but Biden brought in 500k new voters. So, in that state the silent majority actually favored Biden. Anything must then be state-specific to matter. It'll all come down to enthusiasm in November.

 

[K1052]

I'd like to know if this is true. There are several types of polls, the key ones to this discussion being a poll of all adults vs a poll of likely voters.

In 2016 and 2020 if you polled someone who was not political, and didn't vote recently, but supported Trump, then that person probably would not count as a likely voter. Because that person doesn't vote regularly or recently. Their opinion would go into the all adults category, or maybe the registered voter category. But not in the likely voter category.

But, who are the people now that support Trump but didn't vote in 2016 or 2020? Because now in the polls, they would be in the likely voter category if they voted Trump earlier.

I mean there is no guarantee that whatever polling error there is in this cycle favors Trump and a lot of people are just assuming that it does. Results from the WA primary do not indicate a massive miss this time around but there is no way to be certain before the election.

 

[VRAMdemon]

The more I hear from Jesse Watters, the more I imagine him in Ferengi makeup hissing about "feeeemales"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1828586034340282776

Lol! ... Someone needs to inform Watters that Trump is a laughingstock to world leaders.

Perfect video showing why women need to remain in the kitchen. Men can smell the fear from women when they venture outside that safe environment. I don't know how any woman, outside the Christian Nationalist nutjobs that believe this shit, vote for Republicans.

 

[VRAMdemon]

If you resort to attacking a candidate’s dog, you’re probably losing ...

MAGA Is So ‘Desperate’ They’ve Now Gone After Tim Walz’s Dog

MSNBC anchor Jen Psaki noted an “important lesson” for Republicans after the conspiracy was quickly debunked.

www.thedailybeast.com

OMG! the other side’s candidate petted a dog who wasn’t his! The horror! One party pats stranger’s dogs, the other one shoots their own dog because they can’t be bothered to train it.

In other dog news, one of the chief architects of Trump’s Project 2025 thinks that dog parks are “anti-family”:

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/project-2025-swampoodle-dog-park-rcna166791

 

[Indus]

The more I hear from Jesse Watters, the more I imagine him in Ferengi makeup hissing about "feeeemales"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1828586034340282776

Lol! ... Someone needs to inform Watters that Trump is a laughingstock to world leaders.

Perfect video showing why women need to remain in the kitchen. Men can smell the fear from women when they venture outside that safe environment. I don't know how any woman, outside the Christian Nationalist nutjobs that believe this shit, vote for Republicans.

Brunt Watters, FCA!

 

[brycejones]

Bad poll for Kamala...Biden was consistently up much higher at this point last year. These +2% margins are still an EC loss for her, especially if you believe that as in 2016 and 2020, polls continue to underestimate Trump's support.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1828796990366597594

For your own mental health:

1. Touch grass
2. Smash all your devices and quit the internet cold turkey.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Bush did pretty good with normal folks too. I forgot what his day to day dealings were but I remember them being normal and positive.

Here:


Simple fact he is not a weird guy. He is not going to ask a question to trick you while on camera. Simple stuff people.

 

[Indus]

Here:
View attachment 106432View attachment 106433View attachment 106434

Simple fact he is not a weird guy. He is not going to ask a question to trick you while on camera. Simple stuff people.

That and he ran the Texas Rangers baseball team and often talked with the fans.. always self depreciated with his trade of Sammy Sosa so he was "approachable" and normal.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

That and he ran the Texas Rangers baseball team and often talked with the fans.. always self depreciated with his trade of Sammy Sosa so he was "approachable" and normal.

This, his heart was always in the right place, his management style is what sucked about him.

 

[brycejones]

Here:
View attachment 106432View attachment 106433View attachment 106434

Simple fact he is not a weird guy. He is not going to ask a question to trick you while on camera. Simple stuff people.

It’s not even that hard. Vance is so desperate to turn every interaction into some kind of political point it just comes off as weird and unauthentic. I can see why he is a favorite of the Silicon Valley tech bro billionaires, he is just as socially awkward and emotionally broken as they are.

 

[Meghan54]

I found this interesting:


As Vice President Kamala Harris worked to secure her party’s support in the week after Biden announced his decision, new registration among the group was up more than 175%, according to an analysis from TargetSmart.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/08/massive-175-increase-in-voter-registration-among-this-group-you-just-dont-see-this.html

Take the source as you will. But damned interesting if true.

 

[MrSquished]

Nobody beats our current VP candidate

 

[Zorba]

I'm beginning to think it's because people don't like Vance.

He even went to Franklin's BBQ in Austin while president. No big deal.

 

[manly]

Is there a different, longer video I missed? I didn't see anything resembling a panic attack.

Projection, always projection.

This, his heart was always in the right place, his management style is what sucked about him.

Is "management style" some euphemism for listening to the cabal of Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz? IIRC it wasn't Bush's style that was the problem.

 

[MrSquished]

Tim Walz just continues to show he was the best pick. I should have tried to bet on that. I said my money was on him and I loved him, out of the final 6, but didn't put my money where my mouth was. So many Dems were like - oh he is too liberal you gotta balance the ticket! He brings nothing to the ticket! Umm, well, that did not age well.

It's this kind of over analytical timid attitudes that have shot the Dems in the foot many times. Not saying Dems should not take those things into account ever, but it's just too much of the consideration sometimes.

I've heard he said he is not a good debater, so let's see how he does against Vance, but he is just great.

Kamala HQ (@kamalahq) on Threads

Gov. Walz: When Donald Trump was president, he blocked overtime benefits for millions of workers. His Project 2025 plan would allow employers to eliminate overtime pay while cutting taxes for the ultra-wealthy. Their goal is to screw the middle class

www.threads.net

 

[manly]

Bad poll for Kamala...Biden was consistently up much higher at this point last year. These +2% margins are still an EC loss for her, especially if you believe that as in 2016 and 2020, polls continue to underestimate Trump's support.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1828796990366597594

Total lie, Biden was never above 46% last year, and never had a big lead in poll average. Biden maxed out at 47% earlier this spring but he's always trailed since September 2023. It was roughly a 5% chasm when Biden finally dropped out a month ago (that gap would translate into a huge EC loss).

You can try to analyze the data in your normal bullshit ways, but stop lying about the underlying data itself.

Source:

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

 

[Uhtrinity]

I found this interesting:


As Vice President Kamala Harris worked to secure her party’s support in the week after Biden announced his decision, new registration among the group was up more than 175%, according to an analysis from TargetSmart.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/08/massive-175-increase-in-voter-registration-among-this-group-you-just-dont-see-this.html

Take the source as you will. But damned interesting if true.

Similar video from CBS on youtube, major increases in regestration for females in minorty groups, and something like an 80% plus in white females. repub registrations are up less than 20%.

 

[brycejones]

Similar video from CBS on youtube, major increases in regestration for females in minorty groups, and something like an 80% plus in white females. repub registrations are up less than 20%.

Clearly the problem is registering to vote is too easy. GOP legislators will work harder on this problem.

 

[Thump553]

I found this interesting:


As Vice President Kamala Harris worked to secure her party’s support in the week after Biden announced his decision, new registration among the group was up more than 175%, according to an analysis from TargetSmart.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/08/massive-175-increase-in-voter-registration-among-this-group-you-just-dont-see-this.html

Take the source as you will. But damned interesting if true.

Not so surprising. Joe Biden announced on July 21st that he was dropping out of the race and on the same day announced his support of Harris. It was widely publicized Harris was rapidly lining up delegate commitments. It became pretty apparent early on that week that she would be the nominee. The target group of new voters is both a natural for her and most likely a group that was reluctant on Biden as being too old. Remember also the general Democratic leaning population's enthusiasm went from reluctant/comatose to full on almost overnight-remember Harris was initially setting, then breaking daily fund raising amounts?