She might have been worried about the donuts sitting on a table next to his couch.
She might have been worried about the donuts sitting on a table next to his couch.Is there a different, longer video I missed? I didn't see anything resembling a panic attack.
For discussion purposes, lets give gothuevos the benefit of the doubt and go with this time last election (instead of last year).Total lie, Biden was never above 46% last year, and never had a big lead in poll average. Biden maxed out at 47% earlier this spring but he's always trailed since September 2023. It was roughly a 5% chasm when Biden finally dropped out a month ago (that gap would translate into a huge EC loss).
You can try to analyze the data in your normal bullshit ways, but stop lying about the underlying data itself.
Source:
2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling
2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPollingwww.realclearpolling.com
Agreed, but we can only go off of what he said. Not what he might have intended.For discussion purposes, lets give gothuevos the benefit of the doubt and go with this time last election (instead of last year).
This time last election (using the mid-point of that poll of Aug 26), Biden was up 7.1% in the poll average in Real Clear Polling. In the 538 average he was up 6.1%. Biden ended up winning by 4.4%. A net swing of 1.7% to 2.7% towards Trump.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
So, Harris would want at least a bare minimum of a 3% polling lead to overcome possible undercounting. But, I still have yet to figure out who didn't vote in 2016/2020 but will vote for Trump now (which would be necessary to be undercounted this year).
Not exactly. Biden won the "national popular vote" by 4.5% and his margin in the EC was 306-232. Having said that, it was a pretty close election as the margins he carried in a few battleground states was small.Isnt a general consensus that dems needs to be up by 5 to beat the electorate?
Edit: ah, I see, it's a "joke", the "Kamala" is cut-off in the embed.
Trump's total vote count will go up, he'll probably get around 80-90 million votes. There's lot of people who didn't vote for him in 2020 but will in 2024. There are millions of new voters, among them millions of incels who feel like the real victims because they can't rely on being white and male to get them women and an upper middle class lifestyle. This is why Republicans are playing hard to the "white men are the real victims" crowd...it's where they're going to get the most new voters.For discussion purposes, lets give gothuevos the benefit of the doubt and go with this time last election (instead of last year).
This time last election (using the mid-point of that poll of Aug 26), Biden was up 7.1% in the poll average in Real Clear Polling. In the 538 average he was up 6.1%. Biden ended up winning by 4.4%. A net swing of 1.7% to 2.7% towards Trump.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
[URL]https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/[/URL]
So, Harris would want at least a bare minimum of a 3% polling lead to overcome possible undercounting. But, I still have yet to figure out who didn't vote in 2016/2020 but will vote for Trump now (which would be necessary to be undercounted this year).
I don't think there's going to be much turnover of 2016/2020 Dems switching to Republican or vice-versa.
New voters will determine who wins. Getting them to the polls determines who wins.
Every poll you see published from now until November 5th is meaningless.
He increased his votes from 2016 to 2020 by 11,000,000+ new voters after 4 years of making a fool of himself, the country, and a pandemic. 74,000,000+ Americans witnessed 2017-2020 and thought that another 4 years of Trump would be great.Yeah, there's no way that Trump gets that many new votes.
Non-trivial #s of his voters are visiting with Herman Cain as I type this ...
New voters and women voters and especially black women voters. We know where all three are going in huge numbers. If there are some but no insane election night shenanigans, I think Harris/Walz will blow Trump out of the water.Trump's total vote count will go up, he'll probably get around 80-90 million votes. There's lot of people who didn't vote for him in 2020 but will in 2024. There are millions of new voters, among them millions of incels who feel like the real victims because they can't rely on being white and male to get them women and an upper middle class lifestyle. This is why Republicans are playing hard to the "white men are the real victims" crowd...it's where they're going to get the most new voters.
The election essentially relies on whether or not the younguns actually vote. If enough of them do, Harris probably wins...assuming they're arbitrarily spread out in the right places of course.
10 million brand new 18-22 year old voters going Harris in California is irrelevant to winning the Electoral College. Spread 5 million new Harris voters out into GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, AZ, and it can change the whole thing.
I don't think there's going to be much turnover of 2016/2020 Dems switching to Republican or vice-versa.
New voters will determine who wins. Getting them to the polls determines who wins.
Every poll you see published from now until November 5th is meaningless.
Hir primary demo has died off significantly over the last 4 years.
Edit: This link claims 2.6 million boomers died per year over the last few years, so his primary demo lost 10 million people (and likely 6 million voters)
Understanding the Impact: How Many Boomers Die Each Day - Hospice Cleveland
Uncover the significant impact of the Baby Boomer generation's aging with our in-depth analysis of "How Many Boomers Die Each Day." This article delvehospicecleveland.com
He'd have to hit your numbers Just to break even and I don't think he's hitting your numbers.
Nothing would make me happier than being totally wrong and Harris landsliding. The Dems would probably hold the Senate and pick up the House in that scenario, and that should be enough to at least get past Trump. I don't think Trump has more than a few more years before he strokes out and can't physically walk or talk. I don't know if anyone else can coalesce Trump's death cult around them. Hopefully, Trump is a once-in-a-lifetime event. Nothing would be better than the 10-12 sane Republicans joining with centrist Democrats to make a new "right-wing", allowing somewhat liberal "lefties" to create a "left-wing" party. If it's AOC vs Manchin in 2036, I can live with that.New voters and women voters and especially black women voters. We know where all three are going in huge numbers. If there are some but no insane election night shenanigans, I think Harris/Walz will blow Trump out of the water.
Let me tell you, I am being optimistic, but cautiously optimistic. I know all too well how close the election was in the real world in 2020. Your reminder about how actually close 2020 was resonates a lot. I have countered a number of Democrats who have crowed repeatedly how historic Joe Biden's win was in 2020 while totally implying that's the only context, but only taking into account the non-consequential popular vote, and completely ignoring the context of how close the EC was, even when countered with that fact , which is really the only thing of consequence.Nothing would make me happier than being totally wrong and Harris landsliding. The Dems would probably hold the Senate and pick up the House in that scenario, and that should be enough to at least get past Trump. I don't think Trump has more than a few more years before he strokes out and can't physically walk or talk. I don't know if anyone else can coalesce Trump's death cult around them. Hopefully, Trump is a once-in-a-lifetime event. Nothing would be better than the 10-12 sane Republicans joining with centrist Democrats to make a new "right-wing", allowing somewhat liberal "lefties" to create a "left-wing" party. If it's AOC vs Manchin in 2036, I can live with that.
That said, I think polls are absolutely useless and give zero useful information. I think Trump will net 80+ million votes (Harris will almost assuredly get 90m or more) and due to the EC, it could go either way. 500 million Californians can't elect the President, so the popular vote is a 100% pointless poll, and even state polls are useless because the only thing that actually matters is the amount of people who go to the poll and get their vote tallied. Answering a question has zero effect on who becomes President.
Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020, but a change in 42,000 votes over 4 states would have got Trump re-elected. Until the EC is gone, election shenanigans are built into US Constitution.
Let me tell you, I am being optimistic, but cautiously optimistic. I know all too well how close the election was in the real world in 2020. Your reminder about how actually close 2020 was resonates a lot. I have countered a number of Democrats who have crowed repeatedly how historic Joe Biden's win was in 2020 while totally implying that's the only context, but only taking into account the non-consequential popular vote, and completely ignoring the context of how close the EC was, even when countered with that , which is really the only thing of consequence.
Biden did not really inspire in 2020, it was more like a a let's just find a safe moderate person to unite against Trump because we can't stray too far from that narrative and rush losing. And I think there's a decent chance that is correct. But it doesn't change the fact that his candidacy still was a practical candidacy rather than a a monumentous one, like Obama.
But that's very different this election. The seismic shift happening right now is of similar consequence, I feel, to what it was like in 2008. I'm sure part of it is myself being on threads often, which is a nice, mostly maga free social media place. It's more like a spectrum of Democrats, often seen arguing among themselves. Which is a much bigger tent than anything the Republicans have but still. That's what it is.
But the fundraising numbers and the polling changes can't be ignored. The volunteer numbers, the ways the campaign is being run, the attitude, by the campaign itself- these are tangible changes, not just palpable, and I think the widespread energy is quite real. Kamala is a far better candidate then she was in 2020, but on top of that people just needed somebody to believe in. And she's a legitimate accomplished, successful, and strong career woman and politician. And feels like a human fucking being. And inspires unlike probably the most hated two candidates that Biden and Trump were in decades. To top that off Democratic policies are actually more popular, it's just we have lacked the right messenger and message since Barack. Walz was an absolutely perfect choice. Okay we couldn't get Al Franken because we ate our own, but Tim 's not a bad second stringer to him for what we need right now.
Trump is a historically bad candidate. As I said earlier in the campaign, I do believe Biden was one of the biggest reasons Trump was still in this race, and quite competitively so.
I think this campaign team is smarter, in how to deal with the media, More nimble and more in tune to the actual political landscape beneath the Biden Trump paradigm. That are using newer media to get their ideas and message across. We've seen the media go down the tubes, and how pretentious they are while misframing so many political stories.
As someone's tweet I posted earlier from threads said today, with the media's obsession about the first interview, It seems the media is so full of themselves and could be at a similar point as to where they were poo pooing podcasts a decade ago, as a potential form of real information and news and with all the smart takes.
We don't have long to find out, just over 2 months, but I think it's looking solidly good, And the only thing that can stop this is some crazy shenanigans. Kamala will stumble, but I don't think it can be that bad. I think people are going to put in the work.
We don't have long to find out, just over 2 months, but I think it's looking solidly good, And the only thing that can stop this is some crazy shenanigans. Kamala will stumble, but I don't think it can be that bad. I think people are going to put in the work.
Hogan is exceptionally popular in Maryland from his time as governor. I would not read that as an overall (national) republican win by any means.
There are red lights flashing all over.. this would be a major loss if it happens.
You are correct on two points: (1) national polls don't matter much at all. Swing state votes are what actually matters. (2) Turnout is key.Trump's total vote count will go up, he'll probably get around 80-90 million votes. There's lot of people who didn't vote for him in 2020 but will in 2024. There are millions of new voters, among them millions of incels who feel like the real victims because they can't rely on being white and male to get them women and an upper middle class lifestyle. This is why Republicans are playing hard to the "white men are the real victims" crowd...it's where they're going to get the most new voters.
The election essentially relies on whether or not the younguns actually vote. If enough of them do, Harris probably wins...assuming they're arbitrarily spread out in the right places of course.
10 million brand new 18-22 year old voters going Harris in California is irrelevant to winning the Electoral College. Spread 5 million new Harris voters out into GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, AZ, and it can change the whole thing.
I don't think there's going to be much turnover of 2016/2020 Dems switching to Republican or vice-versa.
New voters will determine who wins. Getting them to the polls determines who wins.
Every poll you see published from now until November 5th is meaningless.
The polls do not matter, at all, in any way, shape, or form, in who wins a state's electoral college votes.You are correct on two points: (1) national polls don't matter much at all. Swing state votes are what actually matters. (2) Turnout is key.
The rest of your multiple posts here today are hogwash at best. Rather than debate each one, I'll just go after your early polls are meaningless concept. Yes, you said from now onwards. But, I'll counter with Biden dropping out and RFK dropping out: both based on early polls. To claim early polls are meaningless is as ignorant as it gets. They impact policy shifts during the election, money spent, campaigning locations/styles/key points, major decisions (like politicians dropping out), etc. Those are all extremely important to the presidential winner and they all trickle down to control of congress*. Then, of course, the vote in swing states on Nov 5 is what is key.
* These early polls are forcing Trump away from his 50 state game to have a red wave in Congress. Now he is focusing far more on swing states.