Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,476
3,975
126
Apparently Nate Silver put a negative adjustment for Kam after the DNC.. so any polls that were even would be +3 for trump in his model or something which is why his model has gone crazy today. I don't think it's estimated the RFK vote was Trump vote properly anyways.
Nate Silver take polls and makes adjustments based on history (in an attempt to correct for known effects like convention bounces and return back to normal). As the election gets closer and closer, the adjustments get smaller and smaller (since the polls get more and more relevant).

1) I don't think Nate Silver, or anyone for that matter, really knows how Harris' convention bounce will behave. It is more of a combined honeymoon/convention all wrapped into one. I'm not saying that her poll numbers will stay high. But, I just don't think Silver has a good historical data set to go by for his adjustments.

2) I don't really agree with your RFK vote was a Trump vote idea. Look at the graph below. On July 1st, RFK was just over 15%, Trump was at 43.8%, and Harris was 41%. Now RFK is small, Trump is 45%, and Harris is 48.8%. Virtually all of the RFK vote went to Harris in the last two months. Trump's poll numbers barely budged. You might be correct that the remaining RFK vote might go to Trump. But overall, it hasn't panned out that way so far.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
24,150
10,837
136
Meanwhile.. Saw Kamala's speech in Savanna today, quite the barn burner. At the same time at the end, the talking head noted that Trump's was over an hour longer than planned on his unfinished rally. Must be quite the list of grievances and insults.
 
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QueBert

Lifer
Jan 6, 2002
22,546
832
126
Fuck, former President Clinton was able to stop the limo and walk into random McDonalds fairly frequently.
Problem for Vance is he’s weird. People don’t like to talk to weird mofo’s.

Speaking of McDonalds, Supernews posted on X today that Kamala's lying about having worked there when she was younger. They're claiming McDonald's released a statement saying they have no record of Kamala ever being an employee. This has MAGAs up in arms and apparently, is an inexcusable lie! Meanwhile, they still end their posts with "TRUMP 2024" Would someone lie about working for McDonalds? That seems weird to me, but trying to make this into a story of importance seems extraordinarily petty.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,879
36,883
136
Trump has never released a detailed policy plan. Yet, the media doesn't put that in every story.

This is of course the same press who rode Hillary for having TOO much detailed policy.

Anyway as far as Trump goes they grade him on the Trump curve so it is never going to be fair.
 
Reactions: Fenixgoon and Zorba
Nov 17, 2019
12,080
7,267
136
Speaking of McDonalds, Supernews posted on X today that Kamala's lying about having worked there when she was younger. They're claiming McDonald's released a statement saying they have no record of Kamala ever being an employee. This has MAGAs up in arms and apparently, is an inexcusable lie! Meanwhile, they still end their posts with "TRUMP 2024" Would someone lie about working for McDonalds? That seems weird to me, but trying to make this into a story of importance seems extraordinarily petty.
Do their records include all of the various franchises?
 
Reactions: MrPickins

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
59,132
13,704
136
Speaking of McDonalds, Supernews posted on X today that Kamala's lying about having worked there when she was younger. They're claiming McDonald's released a statement saying they have no record of Kamala ever being an employee. This has MAGAs up in arms and apparently, is an inexcusable lie! Meanwhile, they still end their posts with "TRUMP 2024" Would someone lie about working for McDonalds? That seems weird to me, but trying to make this into a story of importance seems extraordinarily petty.
Imagine being a Trump supporter and pretending you care when a candidate lies.
 
Reactions: esquared

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,190
10,748
136
Speaking of McDonalds, Supernews posted on X today that Kamala's lying about having worked there when she was younger. They're claiming McDonald's released a statement saying they have no record of Kamala ever being an employee. This has MAGAs up in arms and apparently, is an inexcusable lie! Meanwhile, they still end their posts with "TRUMP 2024" Would someone lie about working for McDonalds? That seems weird to me, but trying to make this into a story of importance seems extraordinarily petty.
McDonalds corporation wouldn't have employment records from the franchises. And I doubt the franchises have employment records from 40 years ago.
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,856
3,547
136
Do their records include all of the various franchises?
That's not the only problem.

1) That would be the pretend records with no source provided, by an anonymous poster on X, supposedly second-hand quoting (or named after) an anonymous Usenet news group post? Definitely totally reliable.

2) There has been no such public statement or press release by McDonalds on their official website (or carried by any actual news source)

and yes, 3) McDonald's franchises are wholly independent businesses, deliberately set up to minimize liability to corporate McDonald's ~ corporate wants absolutely nothing to do with local franchise hires to minimize liability
 
Last edited:

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,856
3,547
136
McDonalds corporation wouldn't have employment records from the franchises. And I doubt the franchises have employment records from 40 years ago.
After thinking about this a bit, probably the one and only place that would likely have those records of employment from 40 years ago would be the Social Security Administration. So the fake poster should have fabricated the claim to instead have (illegally) gotten proof from the Social Security Administration, rather than making up a story about a non-existent (and blatantly impossible) McDonald's press release.

(Note the IRS has long since destroyed records that old, and no way a local franchise would keep 40 years of employment records around, even after assuming the low odds that the same franchise is still in business and not closed or sold off to a new owner.)
 
Reactions: Zorba
Feb 4, 2009
35,169
16,595
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McDonalds corporation wouldn't have employment records from the franchises. And I doubt the franchises have employment records from 40 years ago.
is the franchise owner still in business, do they retain records for over 40 years?
 
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