Or a statistics class. Granted, straight lines are always the easiest to deal with.
Or a statistics class. Granted, straight lines are always the easiest to deal with.Most people don't, or can't, think probabilistically. It should be taught in high school math, perhaps in algebra?
right, but that's typically a semester course in college.Or a statistics class. Granted, straight lines are always the easiest to deal with.
Pointy elbows, am I right?That vid of Swift is the first time I’ve knowingly listened to a song of hers, much less a music video. (My pop influences these days are more like Disturbed and Royal Blood.)
First, it was “cute,” second…she’s kinda skinny.
Just another ear worm.
Probably doesn't mean a whole lot to me. Harris will probably win the popular vote means absolutely nothing to me. Who cares if she wins the popular vote, it doesn't mean she wins the Electoral College. Statistics are a parcel of data that have been analyzed. It provides useful data, it does not determine who wins an Electoral College victory given the actual rules within the Constitution.While I agree, correlations aren't always 100%. They can be probabilistic.
If Harris win 60% of the popular vote, she'll probably win the Electoral College. That's great and all, but it's also possible that she wins 60% and also loses the Electoral College. I guess it's some kind of coping mechanism to look at the popular vote polling, but it sure as shit shouldn't be.Most people don't, or can't, think probabilistically. It should be taught in high school math, perhaps in algebra?
90%...71%...5 presidents out of 46 have been elected but lost the popular vote.
That’s ~90% of the time the popular voter predicted the EC winner
If I limit it to elections in my lifetime it’s about 71%.
So overall a decent correlation.
My handle here Indus is actually short for "Industrial Music Lover": Nine Inch Nails, Skinny Puppy, Ministry, KMFDM, Front242, Nitzer Ebb, Funker Vogt, Wumpscut, Killing Joke etc.
But while I was overseas.. I'd often hear Lady Gaga, Beyonce, Taylor Swift, Jon Bonjovi and Katy Perry on full blast.. so I got familiar with their songs. The haters gonna hate hate hate sorta stuck with me as in don't be afraid to be who you are.
However the song I most listen to when I'm down/ depressed is Smothered Hope by Skinny Puppy ! Better than a visit to a shrink!
My exact thought but decided to leave it alone because I didn’t feel like teaching a probability class.Anybody who spouts "probably" doesn't mean much simply doesn't understand probability. I DGAF what math you think you've done on this.
Harris isn't going to win 60% of the national popular vote. Although she could and could still lose the Electoral College. That's how "probability" works when applied to reality. Unless Harris wins literally every single popular vote, her chance of victory can approach 100% and never get there. I know how probability and statistics work. I know what an asymptote is. If you really believe that probability and the word probably aren't intimately related, you should look into it.IF Harris wins 60% of the "national popular vote," she steamrolls to an EC win. Although there is always polling error, these forums would be pretty quiet if we were looking at 60/40 right now.
Anybody who spouts "probably" doesn't mean much simply doesn't understand probability. I DGAF what math you think you've done on this.
Yes, MANY of us here agree this is still a very close election and the outcome is far from determined. That should motivate the Harris campaign, even if it scares us until the days AFTER the election. I truly don't think it's hyperbole to say this is the most important election of my lifetime.
I'm good on the math, thanks.My exact thought but decided to leave it alone because I didn’t feel like teaching a probability class.
Pointy elbows, am I right?
Seriously, though, why do you feel the need to comment on her body? What relevance does it have to the discussion?
Care to point to where I showed that I don't understand probability?Telling everyone that you understand probability by not understanding probability.
You do you.
Rest of us know how the Electoral College works, thank you.
IIRC the absolute threshold is >>80% PV mathematically guarantees electoral victory. But that's how ridiculous the electoral system is. You can theoretically have as little as 20% of the PV in the exact right places and come away with the presidency.Harris isn't going to win 60% of the national popular vote. Although she could and could still lose the Electoral College. That's how "probability" works when applied to reality. Unless Harris wins literally every single popular vote, her chance of victory can approach 100% and never get there. I know how probability and statistics work. I know what an asymptote is. If you really believe that probability and the word probably aren't intimately related, you should look into it.
The math I know that I did on the 2020 election and posted on here shows the reality on the ground. Biden won millions more than Trump. In the swing states where it actually matters, he won hundredths of a percentage more than Trump. If Harris can win hundredths of a percentage more than Trump in enough swing states, then she'll win the Electoral College. But not one vote has been counted yet, and the national popular vote doesn't apply to votes cast in swing states.
Looking at the national popular vote polling and deriving comfort from it is a coping mechanism given the reality on the ground per the US Constitution and the Electoral College. It is, again, 100% irrelevant to actual votes cast, and tallied.
Harris winning the popular vote by 4% or 7% doesn't mean she wins the Electoral College. You can run the probability algorithm 10,000,000 or 200,000,000 times and find comfort that her chance of winning the Electoral College has a higher probability the more you run it, but it doesn't mean she wins the Electoral College.
I'm good on the math, thanks.
Sure!Care to point to where I showed that I don't understand probability?
Because P(EC win | PV % = p) != P(EC win)The popular vote is 100% irrelevant to who wins the Electoral College.
Dude, who shit in your corn flakes this morning?
It's not just today. I see it often in this particular forum. Very rarely is a woman mentioned where her hotness (or lack thereof) isn't mentioned. It feels increasingly gross, especially because objectifying women and (essentially) reducing their worth to how attractive they are is directly out of the Right's playbook. We're supposed to be better than that.Dude, who shit in your corn flakes this morning?
Checking in on how the conservative intelligentsia views this Springfield OH thing and oh boy:
You only accidentally drop that word if you are routinely using it when you speak to your in-group or are using it in your head.
Talk about a Freudian slip.
This was my exact thought. He's said the two words together so many times and cemented those neural pathways that it's the default ending for "Haitian" in his brain.You only accidentally drop that word if you are routinely using it when you speak to your in-group or are using it in your head.
And the interviewer didn't even flinch.This was my exact thought. He's said the two words together so many times and cemented those neural pathways that it's the default ending for "Haitian" in his brain.
I mean, we are talking about Megyn Kelly here. I'm not surprised.And the interviewer didn't even flinch.