These things should not be happening.
Interesting that Biden won the straw poll but Harris lost the other polls.If the Teamsters want to obliterate their political power in the name of Trump and rely on the good grace of congressional Republicans for anything they need that's ok by me. Endorse Trump and get fucked guys. No Dem anywhere should lift a finger to help them in the future.
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Interesting that Biden won the straw poll but Harris lost the other polls.
I don't know which method collects the most accurate data, but the difference results have me curious about the methodologies.
Sadly I think you and mrsquished are correct :/They flipped because Harris is not an old white male and they were already drifting in Trump's direction for cultural reasons.
That is great newsFed cuts 50bps which Trump is really going to complain about.
Another two cuts of 25 getting priced in for the rest of the year. Rates going down.
If that polling is somewhat accurate, the Teamsters are full of racist and misogynists, I mean who woulda thunk it?
Not for my savings accounts.That is great news
In other spider-related election news, here's an enterprising take on the matter.It gets worse! Now the biggest mostest orangest web (of lies!) spinner ever is coming to The Shrine of Our Lady of Czestochowa, which is less than 10 minutes from my house!
"DOYLESTOWN, PA — Former President Donald Trump may be visiting the Shrine of Our Lady of Czestochowa in New Britain Township on Sunday, according to published reports.
The shrine is in discussions with federal and local authorities, but a visit hasn't been confirmed, a spokesperson for the shrine told the Bucks County Courier Times on Tuesday.
The Rev. Maksymilian Ogar, the shrine’s press secretary, told the news organization that if the former president was to come, it would be a visit to pray and not an official event."
^^^ Bullshit. That fat fuck doesn't have a prayer!
"Levittown Now is reporting that the former president is planning to meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda at the Polish-American shrine on Sunday. Duda is in the United States as part of the United Nation’s General Assembly in New York City."
^^^ First spiders, now T-Rump, what's next . . . a posse of angry ex-girlfriends?
That teamsters data is the same issue that was raised with her candidacy prior to Biden dropping out. A non-trivial amount of Biden voters are willing to move to Trump instead of voting for a woman of color.
Yes unless she's up by 6 points.. she will lose to Trump.
I won't be convinced unless she's sworn in on Jan 20th.
Imagine this idiot in charge of the Teamsters endorses Trump, against the very best interests of his union and going against the exact point of his job, to do the best by the Union - not for their feelings, but the facts that affect them, because maybe his ego is hurt because Kamala's team said no to speak at the DNC. This fucking guy.They flipped because Harris is not an old white male and they were already drifting in Trump's direction for cultural reasons.
From the elections folks I follow on Twitter, she basically needs to win by 3pts nationally to ensure that the electoral college can't get in the way of her being elected.Yes unless she's up by 6 points.. she will lose to Trump.
I won't be convinced unless she's sworn in on Jan 20th.
Honestly the Teamsters can fuck right off. Harris endorsement or not. The fact that those polls are remotely near what they are is a disgrace; and what happened last year with the whole Markwayne Mullin and Sean O'Brien ordeal in Congress, its just a joke.That teamsters data is the same issue that was raised with her candidacy prior to Biden dropping out. A non-trivial amount of Biden voters are willing to move to Trump instead of voting for a woman of color.
From the elections folks I follow on Twitter, she basically needs to win by 3pts nationally to ensure that the electoral college can't get in the way of her being elected.
Honestly the Teamsters can fuck right off. Harris endorsement or not. The fact that those polls are remotely near what they are is a disgrace; and what happened last year with the whole Markwayne Mullin and Sean O'Brien ordeal in Congress, its just a joke.
Trump and co have proven themselves to be anti-labor, so it looks like the Teamsters are on the side of their own adversaries. So much for expanded unionization and workers rights.
A bit more about those douchelords:
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On topic of polling, I spotted this post from a PA elections guru. Quite pleasantly surprising. Hopefully this is the start of a trend.
Wisconsin has tightened a bit in this Q-Pac poll though unfortunately 49 Harris - 48 Trump.
Michigan is 51 Harris - 46 Trump.
Haven't looked it up, but membership has to skew white, male and somewhat older. No surprise they would lean Trump in internal polls.I think the methodologies are probably vastly different. Left leaning members are probably not likely to go to meetings then the redneck ones.
Blue collar unions are basically becoming the new farmers, voting against all of their own interests.
Past performance may not be representative of future events.The final Quinniapiac poll in '16 had Clinton +5.
They flipped because Harris is not an old white male and they were already drifting in Trump's direction for cultural reasons.
Past performance may not be representative of future events.
Methodology is probably improved. But also I don't think they're are those shy Trump votes hiding anymore.
Well for the country's sake I hope this is incorrect. Because if there is the shy voter dynamic then Trump has a much better chance of winning.No, it doesn't 100%. But it is an apples to apples comparison. Or, at least as close to one as you can get.
I disagree on the "shy" Trump voters. If anything, I think there are more now than before that the polls aren't capturing. It appears to be slightly less polite to openly support him (less observed flags, etc), and the demo that they appear to be focusing on (young male dude bros) simply won't be captured by most of the polling methodologies. They aren't on landlines, and aren't answering random #s on cell.
Polls are kind of shitty for predicting who will win by X% (and generally getting worse). They're really only potentially useful in noticing trends as to which way a race is moving in the same poll. They also drive too much of the horse-race narrative instead of the opposite where events should drive the polls.
Going back to 1998, average polling error in major elections is about 5%. So at a "national" level, it wasn't terribad in 2016 (Clinton won the PV by 2%).Past performance may not be representative of future events.
Methodology is probably improved. But also I don't think they're are those shy Trump votes hiding anymore.
Perhaps. But I feel a bit better after the debate. There has been a pretty clarifying shift since then.Going back to 1998, average polling error in major elections is about 5%. So at a "national" level, it wasn't terribad in 2016 (Clinton won the PV by 2%).
Where they missed was in the battleground states, and ultimately that pushed DJT to an EC win. There was also an over-reliance on these uncertain polls, as many mathematical models had Clinton as 90%+ to win. Hindsight being 20/20, Nate Silver's final 70/30 call turned out to be pretty good compared to the rest of the field.
The final polls did under-rep Trump in both 2016 and 2020, but that doesn't mean that they always underestimate the Repub candidate.
Right now we're looking at a coin flip election. Anybody predicting a blue wave needs to check their irrational exuberance.