RussianSensation
Elite Member
- Sep 5, 2003
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No, what you're doing is taking random numbers and make a comparision.
Between the GTX480 and 290X there is a 2x performance and a 3 3/4 timeframe between.
Between a GTX880 and a 7970 there will be 3 years and ~2x performance cap.
Using a 5870 doesnt make sense because the architecture was outdated back in 2010. A GTX480 is 60% faster in BF4 than the 5870...
Way to divert the attention towards the 5870 and miss all the other combinations of GPU upgrades. The upgrade paths below is something a PC gamer could have easily chosen but you ignored them.
Upgrade path #1: GTX480 (March 2010) --> GTX780 (May 2013) = roughly 3 years, performance increase of 2.1x
http://www.computerbase.de/2013-05/nvidia-geforce-gtx-780-test/3/
Upgrade path #2: GTX580 (Nov 2010) --> GTX780 Ti (Nov 2013) = 3 years, performance increase of 2x
Upgrade Path #3: HD6970 (Dec 2010) --> R9 290X (Oct 2013) = less than 3 years, performance increase of 2.3x
Upgrade Path #4: HD6970 (Dec 2010) --> 7970 (Dec 2011) = In barely more than 1 year, performance increase of > 70%!
http://www.computerbase.de/2013-12/grafikkarten-2013-vergleich/10/
If you don't like the 5870 comparison, pick any other generation. Not every gamer purchased an HD5870, which was the point of my post. You don't like the 5870 --> 7970Ghz comparison, then use GTX480 to 780 or 580 to 780Ti or 580 to R9 290X. It makes no difference. These all convey the same message: A PC gamer who bought some flagship card A in the last 3-4 years and upgraded following in the next 3 years would have received 2-2.3x the performance increase. 880 is looking to fall way short of that compared to the 680 it replaces.
And btw, there is no evidence to support your claim that 880 will double the performance of a 7970. 7970 is faster than R9 280 which would mean to double 7970, 880 would need to be faster than an R9 295X2. And since most of us overclock, it gets even worse for the 880. Since almost all 7970s could hit 1050mhz (7970Ghz speeds), for GTX880 OC to double 7970 OC, 880 OC would need to be 20% faster than 295X2! Doubtful.
http://www.computerbase.de/2014-08/grafikkarten-2014-im-vergleich-sommerausgabe/2/
For all intents and purposes there isn't even a point of discussing 7970 and 7970Ghz as separate cards since most 7970 owners have overclocked 7970 way beyond 7970Ghz speeds on our forum. Using R9 280X/770 as a baseline is a bare minimum for users such as myself looking to upgrade. If you don't like ComputerBase, other sites corroborate how impossible your claim is: 880 OC would need to be nearly as fast as 780 SLI / Titan Z to double the performance for a 7970 OC owner, or 37% faster than 780Ti:
I would have believed 35-37% increase if the 880 was a 2560 CUDA core chip but recent leaks indicate it could be a 1920 CUDA core chip instead.
Even when NV updated GF104 (560Ti) to GK104 (680), the performance increase was 90%. Is 880 going to be 90% faster than 680? you are saying yes since you are suggesting it will double the 7970.
Nobody says they cant go 20nm. Problem is they cant go 20nm and get better price/performance on a transistor cost.
Soon the increase in price to move to 20nm transistors will not be much more expensive than 28nm. Since Maxwell is also much more energy efficient, NV doesn't need to make a 550mm2 chip to outperform a GK110 by 30-40%. 20nm will make it viable for NV to make a smaller chip that would easily outperform the 780TI while using less power. The question is are they willing to take a hit on gross margins in 2014 or not? If not, then such chip is likely to show up in 2015, not in 2014.
When they estimate that there is no benefit to moving to lower nodes it's comparing at relatively mature 28nm generation to the beginning of a new generation, which is of course cutting edge and brings with it higher costs. But if they wait long enough, the yields on 20nm pick up and wafer prices drop. Eventually it won't be that expensive to move from "inception/early 28nm prices" to "middle of the life-cycle 20nm" prices. It just means NV/AMD will have to wait longer to transition to lower nodes than before.
In fact, NV continues to show increases in gross margins, with last quarter reporting a whopping 56%. So it sounds to me like NV just doesn't want to go back to 40-48% margins, which is why they are not embracing 20nm as early. Really NV could launch a 20nm GM200 by July 2015 I imagine at $699 but it could mean a reduction in margins from 56% to 50%, which is still very good but impossible to justify to their investors. After selling mid-range 680 for $500 and establishing a new flagship price at $700 for 780Ti and moving into semi-professional space with the Titan series, NV is going to be very reluctant to go back to old GPU pricing. Of course, it's not feasible to launch a 550mm2 20nm GM200 this year at any reasonable price in the consumer space. Maybe they will send some samples out like the orders of GK110 for Oak Ridge, well before GK110 reached the consumer space as the Titan at $1K.
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Fudzilla has an article which yet again contradicts 28nm rumors. They are now saying 800 series will launch on 20nm node, and that NV will even have 800 series mobile parts ready before the end of the holiday season, also on 20nm.
Now we have all these possibilities:
300mm2 20nm
300mm2 28nm
430mm2 20nm
430mm2 28nm
GTX880 < 780Ti
GTX880 > 780Ti
With the launch so close, the leaks are all over the place. :hmm:
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