SF @ SEA a homer's thoughts.
Anyone can win from here on out. I am not one to predict or guarantee anything. I like matchups. As a SEA homer I really respect SF and believe SF is good enough to win. In fact I think SEA and SF are the two best teams in the NFL and have the horses that at their best SF can beat anyone. I feel the same way about SEA. I even like Harbaugh. I think he is silly but he is passionate AND knows football. He is a very good coach and he is his own man.
Being a SEA homer here are some reasons I think the SF is hotter/better than SEA is being overplayed. While I would not be surprised if SF won I also wont be surprised if SEA blows SF out. Here are some reasons why.
The last two games in SF were very close (2012: 13-6; 2013: 19-17).
The last two games in SEA did not end up close (2012: 42-13; 2013: 29-3).
Those facts are skewed by all sorts of details; in the very first game in SF Wilson was still very raw. In the last SEA game the game was very close in the 3rd. But I think those 4 games show SEA is very good and matches up well. SF has proven to struggle at SEA as of late. Those dont guarantee a result Sunday but it balances out the current narrative as SF was playing well last year before getting destroyed by SEA at home.
The NFL narrative is SF is playing lights out and SEA is playing poorly. SF has been playing very well. All that matters is Ws. But SF has had a lot of close games the second half of the season: CAR at home (L, 10-9), at NO (L, 23-20), SEA at home (W, 19-17), ATL at home (W, 34-24), at ARI (W, 23-20), and at GB (W, 23-20). Some of those are deceiving as SF was missing key cogs in the CAR game and had some fluke plays; ditto NO. But ATL was a scare. I agree SF is playing well. Looking at the games on the field, ignoring stats and end scores, SF is a really, really good team and finds ways to win. But they are not destroying good teams, either.
The SEA game is one that is interesting as it is a good benchmark how these two are playing as of late. I think SF had everything to play for in that game and SEA had almost nothing. It was SF last division game at Candlestick, SF was 2.5 games behind SEA with ARI nipping at their tails so it was a must win. And there was the revenge factor for being thoroughly embarrassed in week two in SEA and the previous year. SF won, and deserved the win, in SF this year. But it was close, 19-17, and the ball bounced their way. A fluky blocked punt was big. SEA losing Wright and having the combination of Maxwell (backup) over pursue and Earl Thomas taking a bad angle on the 51 yard Gore scamper on 3rd down are things you cannot count on. What I am saying is not that SF didnt deserve to win but SF better not be betting on THOSE things happening again. SF, to win in SEA, will have to play even BETTER.
I think SF can play better than in WEEK 14 so I am not counting them out.
But if you are following the narrative about how great SF is playing I think SF needs to up there game even more as they are now in SEA against an amped SEA team. I would NOT hang my hat firmly on the, SF is playing great, SEA not hook. That may come true this Sunday. But WEEK 14 says SFs best is only slightly better than SEA on the road.
As for the SEA narrative, that they are really struggling on OFF, I agree. But a qualified agreement. Look, SEA had 3 weaknesses last year: their OL cannot pass block, WRs could NOT get separation (see ATL), and they had only 1 proven pass rusher (Clemens who had an ACL in the playoffs). So they fixed the pass rush with Bennet and Avril and those were GREAT moves. With WR they went after Harvin who unfortunately was hurt before the season started and then lost their backup TE (McCoy) and Rice (underperforming but still a big target). SEA was left with their number 3-4-5 receivers in Tate-Baldwin-Kearse. All smaller receivers without speed; two were undrafted. SEA also failed to address their OL which was horrible this year with injuries.
And yet they went 13-3 and the PFF breakdown on Wilson shows once you put aside SEA doesnt pass a lot Wilson is very, very good. That said he has not been as sharp as of late. Gameplan? People adjusting? Hitting a wall? Who knows. Against NO Wilson missed quite a few passes, especially slants. He handed off to Lynch on the wrong side. He hesitated on a wide open Harvin bubble screen. He failed to threaten with his feet when he had chances. As repugnant as I found Bushs head shot (tucked his arms in, led with the crown of his helmet, left his feet, and clearly aimed at the head with no play on the ball or body of Harvin, and a ton of high fiving with no concern over the big penalty) Wilson takes some blame for not looking off the safety and putting Harvin in that situation.
So I get it, SEAs OFF is a problem. SEA has a habit of slow starts. Their line is so bad their TE Miller blocks too much when he may be their best healthy receiver. Until the NO game Lynch was in a dry spell.
And yet SEA scored 23 points against NO. DEN scored 24 against SD and SF scored 23 against CAR. SEAs OFF, for all their troubles, was like #7 in scoring even though they are toward the bottom in yards. SEA plays an ugly form of OFF but they score. Even in the NO game it was rainy, cold, and more importantly very windy with 20mph winds and gusts over 40mph. Between these elements, having a lead, NO taking the wind in the third, and NO having one of the best DEF backfields in the league (statistically) resulted in SEA being very conservative in the pass game. And yet SEA put up 23 and it could have been worse for NO as SEA left a number of plays on the field (couple INTs, missed turnover challenge, holding on a 50 yard run, settling for FGs in the red zone, etc). Considering the weather made SEA on dimensional I dont think the 23 points was bad.
What I did see was Lynch looked like a back being protected at the end of the season who burst out. 13 freaking missed tackles!! Ray Rice had 9 all year! All other playoff backs last week had 17. And everyone can dis Harvin (tip: As someone with TN I know migraines are no joke. The meds work). But this is what I saw: With Harvin on the field NO stopped putting 8 in the box and their safeties played deeper. If SEA can keep Harvin on the field it changes the game. If I am SF even Harvin can play I dont want to see him on the field AT all; in fact I would be more afraid if he did kick off returns and only 10-20 total OFF plays (i.e. spot duty to threaten a screen or fly sweep; best case scenario for SF is if he plays a lot IMO). SEA went 13-3 without him but I do think he presented an X factor in SEAs favor.
As bad as SEAs OFF is their DEF has been playing at another level as of late. When Wagner got healthy they really got stingy on the run and their pass defense is historically good. Their special teams are also exceptional and the threat of Harvin returning kicks makes them that much better.
In a nutshell the narrative, SF playing lights out and SEA playing poorly, has the backdrop of a match up in that time period that was close, 19-17.
Changing venues from SF to SEA and much more on the line for SEA I would not count the Hawks out. SF is good enough to win, and they are a really great team and deserve a lot of respect, I wouldnt overplay SEAs troubles. They may struggle on Sunday
but they may also blow SF out. Again.