*Kitna named Superbowl MVP!* Official NFL 2013 Postseason thread

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Ban Bot

Senior member
Jun 1, 2010
796
1
76
I like PFF, but they aren't the end all be all for football stats. Both Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats rank Kaepernick ahead of Wilson. ESPN's total QBR does too for whatever that stat is worth.

To what degree do they take into consideration the OL and skill positions around them?

Kind of a moot debate. Football is a team sport. IMO Manning carried some HORRIBLE defenses and overrated skill players (i.e. inflated stats by playing with Manning) and never a substantial run game. In the regular season against average teams Manning could take over but in the playoffs he tended to push way too hard to make up for his teammates. There is some truth he personally struggles in the playoffs, but I think the team aspect is underplayed a lot.

I say this because I think Wilson on the 49ers with their superior OL (much, much better OL!) Davis, Boldin, and Crabtree is better than Wislon on Seattle with their OL (which is pretty bad IMO) and Tate-Baldwin-Miller. Missing $19M in receivers most of the season (Rice and Harvin) skews the comparison as that is about 1/6th of a teams cap, but based on what was fielded I believe Wilson would have had a better season with the tools on the SF squad on offense.
 

Childs

Lifer
Jul 9, 2000
11,450
7
81
Wilson will get Flacco money. So will Kaep, Luck, Newton. The going rate on a new deal for a franchise QB is $15mil/yr+. Look at what Cutler got.. lol

Crap, forgot about Cutler, and Rodgers too. Sanchez is getting 13.5... sheesh...15/y does seem like the minimum. I still think only a couple of teams might pay Wilson that. He should at least get that Sanchez money.
 

IndyColtsFan

Lifer
Sep 22, 2007
33,656
687
126
Is Caldwell really that good? Why sign him?

I'm sure he is a nice guy and might even be an OK coordinator (he helped save the Ravens last year but I think they struggled this year), but he has no charisma. Whisenhunt would've been better for Detroit and I'm surprised he didn't pick them over Tennessee, as I think they're in a position to win now. Not sure Tennessee is in that position.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,929
142
106
I like PFF, but they aren't the end all be all for football stats. Both Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats rank Kaepernick ahead of Wilson. ESPN's total QBR does too for whatever that stat is worth.

FWIW, PFF is the only group that grades every single snap of every game. While I don't know what kind of standards their grading is held to, their grading is highly regarded from what I've seen (referenced by analysts on roto, numberfire, espn, yahoo). They are also the only group that have signature stats like missed tackles broken down by run and pass. I don't think Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats are matching PFF's metrics when you actually look at the formulas since metrics such as deep passing and yards per route run (better than popular and common metrics yd/reception or yd/target) are % based.

Like the previous poster mentioned, physical tools will only get you so far (look at Daunte Culpepper!) when talking about ceiling. Football IQ is king, and Wilson's potential is higher IMO. I could be wrong though.
 

Imported

Lifer
Sep 2, 2000
14,679
23
81
FWIW, PFF is the only group that grades every single snap of every game. While I don't know what kind of standards their grading is held to, their grading is highly regarded from what I've seen (referenced by analysts on roto, numberfire, espn, yahoo). They are also the only group that have signature stats like missed tackles broken down by run and pass. I don't think Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats are matching PFF's metrics when you actually look at the formulas since metrics such as deep passing and yards per route run (better than popular and common metrics yd/reception or yd/target) are % based.

I know PFF is highly regarded. I pay attention to their grades too. Not sure on metrics, but I do like Football Outsider's DVOA.

Like the previous poster mentioned, physical tools will only get you so far (look at Daunte Culpepper!) when talking about ceiling. Football IQ is king, and Wilson's potential is higher IMO. I could be wrong though.

That's why I put Wilson's floor higher. His IQ is what makes him a better player right now. In 5 years? Who knows who will be better. Matt Ryan said it took him 6 years to finally "get it" at QB.
 

Imported

Lifer
Sep 2, 2000
14,679
23
81
I'm sure he is a nice guy and might even be an OK coordinator (he helped save the Ravens last year but I think they struggled this year), but he has no charisma. Whisenhunt would've been better for Detroit and I'm surprised he didn't pick them over Tennessee, as I think they're in a position to win now. Not sure Tennessee is in that position.

Thought it had something to do with power over personnel for him choosing Tennessee over Detroit.. MMQB today said it was timing too. Tennessee closed the deal a couple hours before Wisenhunt was scheduled to talk with Detroit again.
 

Childs

Lifer
Jul 9, 2000
11,450
7
81
Like the previous poster mentioned, physical tools will only get you so far (look at Daunte Culpepper!) when talking about ceiling. Football IQ is king, and Wilson's potential is higher IMO. I could be wrong though.

In all fairness to Culpepper, he was never the same after his knee injury. Now replace him with Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf, and your point is still valid.

Thought it had something to do with power over personnel for him choosing Tennessee over Detroit.. MMQB today said it was timing too. Tennessee closed the deal a couple hours before Wisenhunt was scheduled to talk with Detroit again.

Plus, its easier to get in the playoffs in the AFC than it is in the NFC.
 

TheAdvocate

Platinum Member
Mar 7, 2005
2,561
7
81
This is gonna sound a lot like butthurt, and I guess it is, but back to my gameday replies about horrible officiating... on SF's TD play to end the 1st half:



That was on the same play as the 12 men in the huddle no-call. I wish they hadn't done a review of whether Davis was inbounds on the play, because I think it distracted the refs from making the two calls they should have made on the play, which would have rendered the catch meaningless. And while SF punched Carolina in the mouth in the 2nd half, those two calls, and the bogus PI call on that late drive, and other calls as noted really killed Carolina's momentum. They outplayed SF in the 1st half and should have gone into the locker room with a solid lead. SF may have won the game anyway, but that doesn't excuse the terrible officiating.

The stakes in these games are too high to excuse bad officiating.
 

Imported

Lifer
Sep 2, 2000
14,679
23
81
This is gonna sound a lot like butthurt, and I guess it is, but back to my gameday replies about horrible officiating... on SF's TD play to end the 1st half:



That was on the same play as the 12 men in the huddle no-call. I wish they hadn't done a review of whether Davis was inbounds on the play, because I think it distracted the refs from making the two calls they should have made on the play, which would have rendered the catch meaningless. And while SF punched Carolina in the mouth in the 2nd half, those two calls, and the bogus PI call on that late drive, and other calls as noted really killed Carolina's momentum. They outplayed SF in the 1st half and should have gone into the locker room with a solid lead. SF may have won the game anyway, but that doesn't excuse the terrible officiating.

The stakes in these games are too high to excuse bad officiating.

Just saying..

Per Mike Pereira:
In first game, Carl Cheffers reported why he did not call 12 in the huddle. He said the ball was not made ready for play yet. He was right

The 12th player left the huddle at the same time he chopped in the ready for play. This followed the foul so the play clock had not started.

For all of you sending pics of Harbaugh on Davis TD, he was so far behind the play no big deal. Even if called it's a dead ball enforcement

Don't remember the bogus PI call.

Late hit on Davis was good call folks. He let up & ball is on the ground. It makes no difference pass was tipped -- close, but a foul.

I do agree Boldin should have been flagged for a headbutt though.

Carolina lost cause they couldn't punch it in 7 times from the 1yrd line among other things.
 

TheAdvocate

Platinum Member
Mar 7, 2005
2,561
7
81
Mike Pereira called the 12 men in the huddle no flag a mistake DURING the game.

The selective enforcement of the coach on the field flag is exactly what I am talking about. There were two fouls that should have been called on that play. They were not called. There's nothing to debate.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Mike Pereira called the 12 men in the huddle no flag a mistake DURING the game.

The selective enforcement of the coach on the field flag is exactly what I am talking about. There were two fouls that should have been called on that play. They were not called. There's nothing to debate.

Harbaugh wasn't interfering in any way though, and there was no chance he could get involved in that play.

It's probably selective in a universal sense, and always has been, because I bet those coaches are wandering out on the fields throughout all games, forever, even though they "shouldn't be."

There is no way you can compare Harbaugh being on the field in that shot to Tomlin's incident this year, for example.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
62,403
8,199
126
Caldwell to Detroit is just WTF???

So they went from an overly emotional moron to an emotionless moron for a HC. Lateral upgrade at best. At least with Caldwell you won't have to worry about "Shakegate" at the end of a game. But then he'll likely never be sighted on a sideline anyway.

I still don't understand how Caldwell keeps a job. He always seemed like he fell into successful positions and was *just* good enough to act like he was doing something there.
 

smackababy

Lifer
Oct 30, 2008
27,024
79
86
Harbaugh wasn't interfering in any way though, and there was no chance he could get involved in that play.

It's probably selective in a universal sense, and always has been, because I bet those coaches are wandering out on the fields throughout all games, forever, even though they "shouldn't be."

There is no way you can compare Harbaugh being on the field in that shot to Tomlin's incident this year, for example.

While I agree Harbaugh was not in the play at all, it is still a penalty. Same as holding on the opposite end of the play is still holding and can still be called. Now, was it missed? Perhaps. Did it cost Carolina the game? Hardly.

There are a ton of missed calls in a football game. Nearly every play has a hold during it. If you expect the refs to be able to see and accurately call 100% of every penalty, you're a bit unrealistic to say the least. I know Carolina fans are upset because this call happened on a play that helped contribute to their loss, but seriously, get over it. You didn't lose because SF scored on that play; you lost because you couldn't score on how many attempts again?
 

juiio

Golden Member
Feb 28, 2000
1,433
4
81
Edit: I'm wrong about the 12-men call. The rule book says play clock, not game clock. No-call seems correct.

Complaining about Harbaugh being on the field is silly though. That penalty is never called on any coach in that situation. He didn't interfere at all.
 
Last edited:

Ban Bot

Senior member
Jun 1, 2010
796
1
76
There are a ton of missed calls in a football game. Nearly every play has a hold during it. If you expect the refs to be able to see and accurately call 100% of every penalty, you're a bit unrealistic to say the least.

While I agree I think the problem is the fact they miss egregious fouls and are uneven in application. The Boldin head butt or Baldwin getting his helmet ripped off right in front of the ref on his big catch are just unacceptable if you are going to call ticky tack borderline holding calls on big plays. Selective calling on blatant horse collar tackles also irritates me. Another one is when WR intentionally tangle their legs as you will often see a DEF PI on that but rate OFF PI and the WR know this. Of course I feel for the refs in that there are too many subjective calls; and how do you sort out WR/DB hand swatting (hint: WR know they rarely get called so they know they can push off a lot).
 

Ayrahvon

Senior member
Aug 7, 2007
683
4
81
FWIW, PFF is the only group that grades every single snap of every game. While I don't know what kind of standards their grading is held to, their grading is highly regarded from what I've seen (referenced by analysts on roto, numberfire, espn, yahoo). They are also the only group that have signature stats like missed tackles broken down by run and pass. I don't think Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats are matching PFF's metrics when you actually look at the formulas since metrics such as deep passing and yards per route run (better than popular and common metrics yd/reception or yd/target) are % based.

Like the previous poster mentioned, physical tools will only get you so far (look at Daunte Culpepper!) when talking about ceiling. Football IQ is king, and Wilson's potential is higher IMO. I could be wrong though.

Yar, and I would have linked to PFF earlier along with advanced football stats, except that their stats are largely behind a paywall that I'm unwilling to pay for. It's a shame that there isn't really an equivalent to fangraphs for football. None of these sights hold up in comparison, but baseball is a statisticians dream sport.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,929
142
106
I think Mike Pereira is wrong. The previous play was a running play and no timeout had been called, so the clock was running. Whether or not the ball is set doesn't matter. The rulebook doesn't talk about the ball being set or not; it only mentions that the clock has to be running:



Complaining about Harbaugh being on the field is silly though. That penalty is never called on any coach in that situation. He didn't interfere at all.

I agree. However, let's say for whatever reason SF can't punch it in and they get the FG instead. The refs really only are costing the Panthers 4 points in that situation (7-3) by missing the call. Add in the FG gift from the first quarter on the horrid unnecessary roughness where Carolina legitimately got the stop on 3rd down, and the refs really only directly cost Carolina 7 points (4+3). They still lost by 13 so it didn't matter from an objective standpoint.

A case can be made for momentum, but that is something we can't measure. If the game ended up 23-20 then Carolina would have a pretty good case that they got fucked out of a win. That wasn't the case though.
 

smackababy

Lifer
Oct 30, 2008
27,024
79
86
I agree. However, let's say for whatever reason SF can't punch it in and they get the FG instead. The refs really only are costing the Panthers 4 points in that situation (7-3) by missing the call. Add in the FG gift from the first quarter on the horrid unnecessary roughness where Carolina legitimately got the stop on 3rd down, and the refs really only directly cost Carolina 7 points (4+3). They still lost by 13 so it didn't matter from an objective standpoint.

A case can be made for momentum, but that is something we can't measure. If the game ended up 23-20 then Carolina would have a pretty good case that they got fucked out of a win. That wasn't the case though.

Even then, the Panthers could not score at all in the second half. Even if you remove all the SF points from the first, at best, they go into OT with a sputtering offense.

People who want to cry that those penalties cost Carolina the game didn't watch the game.
 

BergeLSU

Senior member
Apr 6, 2011
475
0
76
While I agree Harbaugh was not in the play at all, it is still a penalty. Same as holding on the opposite end of the play is still holding and can still be called.


Ha. The Seahawks were called for holding against the Saints in the first game, then it was waved off because "the QB took off running."

So, the refs will call whatever the hell they want to call.
 
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