LCD price predictions anyone?

[Gunnar]

Okay, I am pretty interested in buying an LCD tv. Judging from the forum participants around here, I suspect many of you are too. Seeing as how LCDs are steadily dropping in price, Im really beginning to get antsy in buying one. However, Im afraid of overpaying for something that I only need marginally (business as usual in the tech world).

So taking into consideration what is likely to be the good size screen for a bachelor (or bachelorette), namely 20 inches, I challenge fellow forums members for price predictions by the end of this year.

I am predicting that we will find 20 inch lcds for under 700 by the end of this year (even bolder: before the end of summer).

 

[Imdmn04]

Stop dreaming, LCDs price haven't dropped a single bit for the last year. A decent 17 is still about 400+, just like last year.
20in LCDs is around 800-1000 at Dell depending if they are having a sale or not.
Will you find a 20 inch under 700 by the end of summer? possibly, but not because the price in general will be dropped, its probably because of some sort of hot deal posted on FatWallet every now and then.

 

[EeyoreX]

From what I've read, the general industry predictions is that prices on LCDs will actually creep up, due in large part for the increasing demand for these products. Despite advances, there still are only so many LCD produced at any give time, and the plants can not really keep up with the increasing demand consumers are putting on them.

\Dan

 

[Zee]

Originally posted by: Imdmn04
Stop dreaming, LCDs price haven't dropped a single bit for the last year. A decent 17 is still about 400+, just like last year.
20in LCDs is around 800-1000 at Dell depending if they are having a sale or not.
Will you find a 20 inch under 700 by the end of summer? possibly, but not because the price in general will be dropped, its probably because of some sort of hot deal posted on FatWallet every now and then.

 

[MichaelZ]

the general industry predictions is that prices on LCDs will actually creep up

damn. LCD or NV40... LCD or NV40... Looks like I'll have to wait longer until I get that 17" LCD.

 

[ponyo]

Give it time. There may be shortage now but companies will screw up. It's a given. Companies are scrambling to put on new capacity. They will overproduce and have a glut eventually. Happens in every industry time after time. LCD will be no different.

 

[Gunnar]

well, the samsung 192mp is going for 799 at buy.com. You can get a Sharp Aquos at Amazon for under 900. Prices like those certainly werent around before Christmas.

And with many manufacturers increasing capacity, as the poster above so astutely observed, the price will inevitably come down, if for no other reason than that manufacturing efficiency is greater, and lcd manufacturers are likely to have a price war.

I say before summer because I think the LCD manufacturers want to make their way into college dorms.

 

[EeyoreX]

The problem currently is that the manufacturers can't "screw up". They are simply unable to "over produce" LCDs. They are barely able to maintain stock in certain sized LCDs. The new production capacity is need simply to try and catch up and stay even. As long as people continue to want LCDs the manufacturers will not (in the near term) be able to "screw up" and over produce. As the demand grows higher and higher, faster and faster, production is too slow to maintain the product. It takes years to get a new plant up and running. It takes significantly less than that to excite interest in the product. it was not all that long ago that LCDs were the less bought product. Now that there are LCD monitors and big screen TVs "everybody" wants one. Everybody won't be able to find one because all the companies will not be ready to produce more. I have serious doubts that LCD prices will drop in any significant amount before or during the summer. It doesn't matter where manufacturers "want them" if they can not supply them. I still contend (and this is just agreeing with printed articles I have seen in recent issues of PC Magazine and PC World) that prices will rise in the near term, then eventually level out for a while before finally dropping again. I have no idea on time frames, but I am still going to insist it will be well after the start of summer, and may even be into late 2004 or early next year. I may be wrong, of course.

\Dan

 

[nitromullet]

You are talking about 2 different things... The original poster is talking about LCD TV's, the rest of you appear to be talking about LCD monitors...

 

[KristopherKubicki]

LCDs in the 20+" range have decreased, contrary to popular opinion. Even the lower sized substrates are dropping in price, the manufacturers are starting to keep the prices artificially high though.

Last year at this time, a no frills 30" LCD TV ran for about $2600. Today you can get the same LCD for around $2000. From what I hear, if it means anything, some 30" LCDs are trying to hit that magic $1500 number by the end of the year.

Personally, if you want the ultimate bachelor pad, i can think of some better recommendations than an LCD TV for $1500. However, prices are and will continue to drop.

Cheers,

Kristopher

 

[oldfart]

.

 

[KristopherKubicki]

The components themselves have gone down. NEC is a sinking ship

Kristopher

 

[AWhackWhiteBoy]

"Stop dreaming, LCDs price haven't dropped a single bit for the last year."

i paid $400 for my first 17" LCD, $435 for my 2nd, and $450 for my third. all the same model. it now costs $500.

 

[AWhackWhiteBoy]

Originally posted by: KristopherKubicki
The components themselves have gone down. NEC is a sinking ship

Kristopher

whats wrong with NEC?

 

[KristopherKubicki]

NEC is investing a lot in future technology, but not much in actual production (unlike Samsung/Sony, LG Philips, Quanta/Sharp, etc). NEC makes very few LCDs, which are based on someone else's panels anyway. When you buy one of their LCD monitors, you are just paying for the name.

So even though that NEC 16ms LCD (which i told people not to buy) has gone up in price $100, the same LCD made by Hitachi has gone down in price about $20 (although Hitachi is starting to hurt as well.)

http://www.newegg.com/app/viewProductDesc.asp?description=24-134-035&depa=0

Kristopher

 

[AWhackWhiteBoy]

yea,thats what i have, at the time the Hitachi was extremely hard to find and much more expensive. you can find a Toms hardware review stating it and suggesting directly to forget about the Hitachi because the benchmarks apply to such and such NEC models also since its the same panel and the NEC is much cheaper(at the time). i guess its reversed.

 

[KristopherKubicki]

Also keep in mind their LCD lab is in France. Prices in Europe vary from here; i think in the US the CML174 has always been cheaper.

Kristopher

 

[oldfart]

When I got my NEC/Mitsu 1760NX last year, it was ~$450, now its ~ $500. At the time, the equivalent Viewsonic was quite a bit more, and the equivalent Hitachi CML174 does not have a button to switch between dual inputs which I must have. Maybe not a big deal for some, but to me, that is a huge shortcoming on that model.

The LCD has been great. No dead/stuck pixels, and image quality is very good. A friend has the same panel and he is equally pleased. The prices of late are hard to figure. I'm glad I bought it when I did.

 

[AWhackWhiteBoy]

Originally posted by: KristopherKubicki
Also keep in mind their LCD lab is in France. Prices in Europe vary from here; i think in the US the CML174 has always been cheaper.

Kristopher

"As with the Samsung, there is no point in beating around the bush. The LCD1760V is built on the same screen as the Hitachi CML174SXW. Color rendering, afterglow, brightness, interpolation - everything is identical on both monitors. This means we must just recommend this one because it is cheaper than its Hitachi rival. As we said for the CML174SXW, the LCD1760V will suit everyone, even FPS fans who, for the most part, will not even realize that there is a very slight afterglow."

at the time,there was only a $20 difference between the 1760V and 1760NX

article

 

[KristopherKubicki]

I wrote an article too:

"The Samsung 172T provides stronger and more vivid colors, along with great style and OSD. The Hitachi CML174, on the other hand, has an integrated DC converter, lower response time and lower price. We would not recommend the CML174 for graphic designers just yet because of some of the color rendition problems present"

http://www.anandtech.com/showdoc.html?i=1785&p=9

Then i wrote another one once i became more aware why the colors were not replicated correctly.

"To take an example from today?s monitors, we can look back to our Samsung 172T and Hitachi CML174 reviews. The Samsung 172T produces 16.7M colors, or 256 shades per sub-pixel. The CML174 produces an advertised 262,000 colors and a lower response time, or 64 shades per sub-pixel. AUO, the OEM manufacturer for almost every 16ms response time LCD, sacrifices color hues in order to produce faster responses on the liquid crystal. More simply, there is less electronic modulation with the AUO substrate, and the sub-pixel crystals are able to be twisted faster."

http://www.anandtech.com/showdoc.html?i=1855&p=3

But thats just my opinion. I didnt mean to get off topic.

Kristopher

 

[EeyoreX]

You are talking about 2 different things... The original poster is talking about LCD TV's, the rest of you appear to be talking about LCD monitors...

LCDs, whether for TVs or for computer displays are made the same way. And both are in the same boat. Too much demand, not enough production capability.

\Dan