Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

[DisEnchantment]

TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

TSMC Radically Boosts CapEx to Expand Production Capacities, To Reach $14B For 2019

www.anandtech.com

For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

Samsung’s Aggressive EUV Plans: 6nm Production in H2, 5nm & 4nm On Track

www.anandtech.com

Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE

 

[controlflow]

What alternative was there to TSMC? Intel, the company that takes subsidies from the government and has accumulated process issues for 10 years?

TSMC and Samsung are more or less state backed enterprises which have received funding for decades. Intel hadn't even received CHIPS act money yet as of their last earnings.

Conflating Intel's 10nm process woes and the very recent government funding is disingenuous or at least ignorant.

 

[LightningZ71]

Doesn't GloFo still have a foundry in New York?

 

[dullard]

Conflating Intel's 10nm process woes and the very recent government funding is disingenuous or at least ignorant.

Plus, AMD will likely receive billions in CHIPS Act funding for research while using TSMC's billions of CHIPS Act funding for manufacturing. Heck, while this is small potatoes, AMD is already getting funding: https://raytheon.mediaroom.com/2024-02-01-RTX-works-with-AMD-to-develop-next-gen-Multi-Chip-Package

And that ignores that we can build up foundries that aren't Intel. We are giving ~$2 billion to GlobalFoundaries for example and over $6 billion to Samsung.

 

[Nothingness]

TSMC and Samsung are more or less state backed enterprises which have received funding for decades.

That’s a good point but that doesn’t change the fact Intel has been subsidized too for years and was not able to act as foundry for years.

Intel hadn't even received CHIPS act money yet as of their last earnings.

Conflating Intel's 10nm process woes and the very recent government funding is disingenuous or at least ignorant.

Intel issues started at 14nm with various delays.
As far as the ignorant part goes: https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/intel

You didn’t address my other point: given Intel process issues (and their inability to act as a proper foundry for years) who could have made chips? We should all be happy that TSMC was competitive.

 

[Nothingness]

Plus, AMD will likely receive billions in CHIPS Act funding for research while using TSMC's billions of CHIPS Act funding for manufacturing. Heck, while this is small potatoes, AMD is already getting funding: https://raytheon.mediaroom.com/2024-02-01-RTX-works-with-AMD-to-develop-next-gen-Multi-Chip-Package

And that ignores that we can build up foundries that aren't Intel. We are giving billions also to GlobalFoundaries for example.

You’re reinforcing my point
Germany and Europe in general are also trying to do the same. But they don’t threaten other countries.

 

[Doug S]

But the fact is, we all know that the US WILL protect Taiwan if china gets really involved. Trump or not. He was only stating the truth,

Why would you assume that? He's going to leave Ukraine twisting in the wind if he's elected because he loves Putin, and you think he'd stand in the way if China decided to do the same to Taiwan?

 

[dullard]

given Intel process issues (and their inability to act as a proper foundry for years) who could have made chips? We should all be happy that TSMC was competitive.

Yes, TSMC was competitive. And competitive is a good thing. But putting all eggs into that basket is a disaster waiting to happen. Who could have made chips? With billions floating around from governments and if only companies were willing to use multiple foundries, it could have been Samsung or GlobalFoundries. But no, most of tech dumped all money into TSMC--basically giving them a monopoly. And the more money going to them the worse the problem gets.

 

[Nothingness]

Yes, TSMC was competitive. But putting all eggs into that basket is a disaster waiting to happen. Who could have made chips? With billions floating around from goverments and with companies willing to use multiple foundries, it could have been Samsung or GlobalFoundries. But no, most of tech dumped all money into TSMC.

I definitely agree with you: as consumers we need a sane competition between multiple companies. EDIT: and that’s why I’m happy Intel seems to be back in the game and also starts being serious to act as proper foundry.

Samsung process had issues and I think GloFo stopped developing new processes some time ago (but I might remember wrong).

 

[dullard]

Samsung process had issues and I think GloFo stopped developing new processes some time ago (but I might remember wrong).

Both of which money fixes (with a little patience).

 

[NostaSeronx]

China is about to leap-frog US/EU planar on insulator tech.

CEA-Leti/STMicro/GloFo vs China (production partner hasn't been announced, but is confirmed to exist)

Dimensions:

CPP:​	68-nm​	55-nm​
MxP:​	48-nm​	~3x-nm​
Production timeline:​	2027+​	2026+​

5-stage microarchitecture w/ 6T-SRAM Vdd/GHz:

Vdd:​	0.6V​	0.6V​
GHz:​	~0.5 GHz​	~8 GHz​

If the gate length scaling on China side is symmetrical then CPP=15.2nm is possible with the new transistor that is on insulator. Which is slated for production by 2031+. Only problems to solve detailed are the EOT and the S/D contact materials for the PFET, or else CPP below 55-nm will be impossible.

 

[maddie]

TSMC and Samsung are more or less state backed enterprises which have received funding for decades. Intel hadn't even received CHIPS act money yet as of their last earnings.

Conflating Intel's 10nm process woes and the very recent government funding is disingenuous or at least ignorant.

Almost all, if not all, large Western tech Corporations receive Government funding. Monies for research into X,Y,Z, but the appearance of pure capitalism, must be maintained. As the bard wrote, a rose by any other name ..............

 

[DavidC1]

Why would you assume that? He's going to leave Ukraine twisting in the wind if he's elected because he loves Putin, and you think he'd stand in the way if China decided to do the same to Taiwan?

He's going to have to regardless of whether he wants or not because pretty much every portion of the market is reliant on Taiwan for it's compute, and it's the only area US has any leadership in nowadays.

All the motherboard vendors are there, so annexation would result in Desktop production going to zero, and all Android/iOS chip production is going to go to zero. Major computer manufacturers such as Dell outsource it there too, so there goes those companies.

Also regarding the Putin remark, way to focus on a tiniest branch of a smallest tree, when there are much, MUCH bigger matters at hand, such as being closer and closer by day to Nuclear War aka WWIII. America used to be completely neutral to other world's affairs which kept it from becoming a true World War.

 

[jdubs03]

Also regarding the Putin remark, way to focus on a tiniest branch of a smallest tree, when there are much, MUCH bigger matters at hand, such as being closer and closer by day to Nuclear War aka WWIII. America used to be completely neutral to other world's affairs which kept it from becoming a true World War.

I’m not exactly sure what you’re referring to. Neutrality didn’t get us very far in relation to World War II. In fact, since we stalled so much, Europe was almost completely taken over. It took an aggressive Japan to upset the dynamic and set in motion our entry. If that didn’t happen, I think this world would be a hell of a lot different right now. One could make the argument that hundreds of thousands, if not millions of innocent people died because of that stalling. At the beginning of both world wars we stalled for at least two years, and we nonetheless were still brought into it.

You say much bigger issues at hand, but that seems to diminish what is going on in Ukraine; this is the largest scale conflict in Europe since World War II.
I guess your point is we along with the EU countries shouldn’t be assisting Ukraine to defend itself? Just let Russia have it? And then they can take Moldova too; then onward in Putin’s ambition to reconstitute some Russian Empire that no one but him and his cronies want?
Plus, if there’s anyone that is going to launch a nuclear weapon it would be Russia (or perhaps North Korea). This whole nuclear war talk is overblown. Any country that launches one would be instantly annihilated.

It really comes down to capacity of US and Europe supply chains for air defense, interceptors and 155 mm ammunition. As long as that stays sustained, Ukraine shouldn’t have a problem defending itself; and allow for enough time for their own military industry to become more self-sufficient. It furthermore will prove a point to China to stay out of Taiwan (it’s not like Taiwan doesn’t receive armaments from us anyway).

 

[controlflow]

That’s a good point but that doesn’t change the fact Intel has been subsidized too for years and was not able to act as foundry for years.


Intel issues started at 14nm with various delays.
As far as the ignorant part goes: https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/intel

You didn’t address my other point: given Intel process issues (and their inability to act as a proper foundry for years) who could have made chips? We should all be happy that TSMC was competitive.

Almost all, if not all, large Western tech Corporations receive Government funding. Monies for research into X,Y,Z, but the appearance of pure capitalism, must be maintained. As the bard wrote, a rose by any other name ..............

Agree that Intel's process woes started even before 10nm, but you continue to conflate this with subsidies which is odd.

Prior to the CHIPs act, Intel mostly got subsidies from local jurisdictions as an incentive to invest in a certain region. Overwhelmingly these subsidies were quite small relative to the CapEX of Intel. Compare this to the situation where the Government of Taiwan is the largest investor in TSMC and Samsung which is a Chaebol, the situation with Intel isn't comparable at all.

CHIPS act is the first time Intel is getting subsidies that really move the needle relative to the CapEx needed to develop process nodes and scale fabs. This amount is in the tens to hundreds of billions. Government research grants and local incentives to invest in a certain state are not comparable subsidies to essentially being a state owned enterprise. Taiwan and Korea have viewed their local semiconductor manufacturers as entities of national interest and have invested in them over the long run as a strategy for national security. This way of thinking has only become more prominent in western governments recently.

 

[Shmee]

Hello all, please refrain from political discussions in the tech area, and let's focus on the topic at hand. -AT mod Shmee

 

[FlameTail]

If TSMC goes under, then maybe Samsung Foundry's yields will finally improve from 10%...

 

[DrMrLordX]

What alternative was there to TSMC? Intel, the company that takes subsidies from the government and has accumulated process issues for 10 years?

Uhhhh Samsung? Lol.

Doesn't GloFo still have a foundry in New York?

They could always license another node from Samsung oh wai-

 

[FlameTail]

Have you guys forgotten about Japan's Rapidus?

 

[Nothingness]

For the record, here’s the foundry ranking by revenue: https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20240612-12184.html


The TSMC leadership is clearly an issue. My previous point was about threatening a country because of that leadership, but I won’t continue in that direction as this is more a political issue than a technical one.

Does anyone have a concise listing of the most advanced nodes these listed companies have?

 

[igor_kavinski]

View attachment 103385

Good to see GloFlo at No.5. Gives me hope.

 

[maddie]

For the record, here’s the foundry ranking by revenue: https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20240612-12184.html

View attachment 103385
The TSMC leadership is clearly an issue. My previous point was about threatening a country because of that leadership, but I won’t continue in that direction as this is more a political issue than a technical one.

Does anyone have a concise listing of the most advanced nodes these listed companies have?

Illuminating.

Anyone seriously expects a significant change in Chip volumes considering the lead times to produce, install & ramp needed fabs. Also, the tiny matter of trained AND experienced staff.

Decades +?

 

[FlameTail]

For the record, here’s the foundry ranking by revenue: https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20240612-12184.html

View attachment 103385
T

TSMC is bigger than the rest of the list COMBINED.

 

[igor_kavinski]

TSMC is bigger than the rest of the list COMBINED.

Blame Apple.

 

[oak8292]

Blame Apple.

In 2013 before Apple did anything at TSMC they were at 49% of foundry.

“In 2013, TSMC maintained its leading position in the total foundry segment of the global semiconductor industry, with an estimated market segment share of 49%. TSMC achieved this result amid intense competition from both established players and relatively new entrants to the business.”

https://investor.tsmc.com/static/annualReports/2013/english/c_2_2.html

One of the big reasons that Apple went to TSMC is that they were big enough to grow with them and provide a lot of trailing customers. At Samsung or Intel they would always be second.

 

[igor_kavinski]

One of the big reasons that Apple went to TSMC is that they were big enough to grow with them and provide a lot of trailing customers. At Samsung or Intel they would always be second.

You don't understand. Apple could've boosted up the smaller players like GloFlo by investing more in them. They could've prevented TSMC from becoming a monopoly. I wouldn't be surprised if bribes went from TSMC to certain decision makers at Apple to prevent them from making future looking decisions that could put TSMC at a disadvantage.