Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

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DisEnchantment

Golden Member
Mar 3, 2017
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TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.




Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
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IIRC the high NA EUV systems are around $300 million. But hey, maybe the installation is included in that price
Typically the reported figures for big company or government contracts include support and other services, not just the hardware.
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
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Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said Intel’s 18A process is “a little bit ahead of” TSMC’s N2, beating TSMC on backside power delivery, but not the transistor: “It’s not clear that one is dramatically better than the other.” The result, he said, “So, I have a good transistor. I have great power delivery.”

Sounds like N2 has a density advantage over 18A.
 

FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
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At the earliest, we will see products with N2 in late 2025 (Apple A19 chip?).

Whereas Intel 18A products will land in early 2025, I believe?
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
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In early 2025 we should see the first 20A volume, 18A not before mid 2025 for Clearwater Forest and late 2025 for Panther Lake. PTL might be low power limited, the real volume might come with Nova Lake in 2026-2027.
What kind of sources are you using for those dates? The latest information that I've seen is late 2024 for 20A. https://www.tomshardware.com/news/i...er-with-20a-process-node-chips-arrive-in-2024 Your other dates seem to fit with what I've seen, but that depends if any of Lunar Lake comes on 18A. Which if that happens then 18A could be on the earlier part of 2025.
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
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What kind of sources are you using for those dates? The latest information that I've seen is late 2024 for 20A. https://www.tomshardware.com/news/i...er-with-20a-process-node-chips-arrive-in-2024 Your other dates seem to fit with what I've seen, but that depends if any of Lunar Lake comes on 18A. Which if that happens then 18A could be on the earlier part of 2025.

Very late 2024 or early 2025 doesn't make a difference, does it? Maybe there will be a MTL like launch who knows but in early 20A we still have the initial 20A ramp up, it's too early for 18A chips. I don't understand your link. You mean it must come 1 year after the first wafer had been baked? Then have a look to Meteor Lake. It powered on during Q2 2022 and finally came this month roughly 1.5 years later. ARL on 20A booted up for the first time during September-October. ARL-S should come earlier because it's supposedly on a N3B compute tile. Lunar Lake won't come on 18A, it's N3B. There is a reason why Intel never confirmed the process node for LNL unlike ARL, PTL and so on.
 

FlameTail

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2021
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Lunar Lake is coming early 2025 with 18A?

That's an incredible node advantage. 18A with RibbonFET and PowerVia, which will be competing with TSMC N3P chips, as N2 will not be out by then.
 

trivik12

Senior member
Jan 26, 2006
321
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Lunar Lake is coming early 2025 with 18A?

That's an incredible node advantage. 18A with RibbonFET and PowerVia, which will be competing with TSMC N3P chips, as N2 will not be out by then.
Lunar Lake is definitely not 18A. They demoed a sytem back in Intel Innovation Event in September. Its supposedly N3B. I guess they want this platform out without any risk or delay and so went with a process node which will be mature by then(thanks to TSMC and Apple).
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
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Lunar Lake is coming early 2025 with 18A?

That's an incredible node advantage. 18A with RibbonFET and PowerVia, which will be competing with TSMC N3P chips, as N2 will not be out by then.
Starting with N3B I believe late 2024--mostly since Intel already bought the wafers and in case 18A was not ready in time. But there is talk that it could move to 18A. If they did so, then I would think it would be early 2025 considering they are ramping 18A production in late 2024.
 
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mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
4,173
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Lunar Lake is coming early 2025 with 18A?

That's an incredible node advantage. 18A with RibbonFET and PowerVia, which will be competing with TSMC N3P chips, as N2 will not be out by then.


Late 2024 according to the latest roadmap we got. It's on N3B not 20A.
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
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Sounds like N2 has a density advantage over 18A.

Where do you infer that? He says N2 has a "better transistor" which doesn't necessarily mean smaller. It might mean that it switches faster, uses less power, or both. If Intel is using BSPD and STILL has worse density than TSMC N2 without BSPD that's a problem. Because that would mean when TSMC releases the N2 with BSPD six months later they would have a significant density (and therefore cost) lead over Intel.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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That twitter post is wack. Here's the Barron's article: https://archive.ph/ph92x

Here's what Gelsinger said:

We announced two major innovations with 18A: a new transistor and backside power. I think everybody’s looking at the transistor of TSMC’s N2 versus our 18A. It’s not clear that one is dramatically better than the other. We’ll see who’s best.

But the backside power delivery, everybody says Intel, score. You are years ahead of the competition. That’s powerful. That’s meaningful. It gives better area efficiency for silicon, which means lower cost. It gives better power delivery, which means higher performance.

So, I have a good transistor. I have great power delivery. I think I’m a little bit ahead of N2, TSMC’s next process technology in time. And TSMC has given a very high-cost envelope that I think I easily fit underneath to be margin accretive for Intel.
 

trivik12

Senior member
Jan 26, 2006
321
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Pat obviously cannot say for sure that 18A xtor will be better than N2 at this point. That is enough for jokers on twitter to say that Pat implied N2 xtor is better than 18A
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
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There's also the open question of whether Intel can realize their advertised power, performance, and density targets.
Yup, it has taken a couple of +++ in the previous generations to go from a process that is power optimized for laptops to performance optimized for desktops.

But let's see, I'm all for more competition.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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Also, in a presentation showcased to Japanese media, Intel lists down several nodes beyond 18A & we also see the return of the iconic "+" from the 14nm era. At least three future nodes following 18A are mentioned with "Intel Next+" specifically mentioning the use of HiNa EUV lithography. The production on this node shouldn't be expected until the 2025-2026+ timeframe.
Someone at Intel really loves plusses.

HiNA EUV is official terminology? How do you pronounce it? Hyena eeeyoouuuveee???
 
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