You just put it very plainly why my interest in the NBA will wane until LeBron isn't in his prime. Super dominant teams make leagues not very fun to follow.
The Cavs almost ended it, indeed. But let's consider some facts. First, Wade and Bosh combined for 22 points as opposed to their average of 38. You may get a bad night from one or both of them occasionally, but you can't expect them to perform that poorly for an entire playoff series. Second, the Heat shot 20% from the field in the second quarter where they were outscored by 13 points. The Heat average around 50% shooting, so a quarter like that is an extreme statistical anomaly, and not likely to happen more than once during a 7 game series. Third, the Heat still managed to win that game in spite of poor performances from two of their top 3 players and better than average nights from several Cavs players (who were thrust into starting roles due to injury, so some increase in stats is to be expected). They rallied from 27 down in less than 12 minutes. Is that going to happen every game in a 7 game series? Of course not. But they wouldn't find themselves in that position as a general rule in a 7 game series either.
This is why we have playoffs as a series rather than one game. It allows a regression to the mean to account for statistical anomalies. The Celtics almost beat the Heat earlier this week, but they did it behind 43 points from a man who averages less than 12. How often is Jeff Green exploding like that in a 7 game series? He's only broken 20 points three other times this season, so obviously you aren't getting that production out of him on a nightly basis. And if the Heat are able to overcome these statistical anomalies within individual games, how is anyone going to be able to sustain any momentum against them in a series? It's going to take a good team effort to beat them, but the only real contenders are coming from the West (say what you will about the Pacers, I don't see them taking Miami 7 games), and the West is so stacked that whoever makes the Finals may well play multiple long series while the Heat waltz through the East with relative ease and extra rest. It's not looking good for Miami's detractors.
You just put it very plainly why my interest in the NBA will wane until LeBron isn't in his prime. Super dominant teams make leagues not very fun to follow.
Kinda the way the NBA is setup, though. Pretty much the way it's always been.
Since 1980: Lakers 10 championships, Chicago 6 championships, Boston 4, Spurs 4. So, just those four teams have won 24 out of the last 33 championships. The rest are multiple winners as well (Detroit/Houston/Miami) except for Dallas, which is the aberration
They have 1 less win than the entire west division combined. And if it wasn't for Denvers 14 game streak they'd have more than both the west + the east together.
You just put it very plainly why my interest in the NBA will wane until LeBron isn't in his prime. Super dominant teams make leagues not very fun to follow.
There hasn't been a time in my lifetime where the NBA didn't have a couple super-dominant teams and a whole lot of crap. The Lakers/Celtics in the 80s, the Bad Boy Pistons, the Bulls dynasties in the 90s, the Rockets in Jordan's absence, the Lakers (again), the Spurs... Actually, the last decade is probably the most parity the NBA has enjoyed since the 1970s. We've had 6 different NBA champions in the past 9 years; that hasn't happened since 1975-83 (which was actually 7 different champions). Without some serious systemic changes, the league is always going to drive towards superstars teaming up to create superteams.
Lebron and Wade combine to make just a little more than Kobe this year and next.
Bosh, Wade and Lebron all have player options after 2014. Do they opt out and sign for less because of the newly passed more restrictive cap?
The only thing they could really do is implement a hard cap and mandatory roster numbers - and since NBA contracts aren't structured like NFL contracts, that would put a serious damper on the way teams are. Take the Heat as an example, even with the big 3 only taking $16mm, that totals to $48mm - if the current cap was hard set at today's $58mm, and the roster was a mandatory 15 players, they'd have $10mm to go after 12 players to fill their roster. Doubtful that would happen, and it doesn't even "fix" the issue at hand - the league needs to remove between 4-6 teams from the NBA.
I'm down for contraction as long as it's not the wizards.. Come on! We got Wall and Beal! I think even the Bobcats are gonna be pretty good soon. Milwaukee Bucks? Kings? Magic? Who should go?
LeBron has to opt out to tack a few guaranteed years onto his deal. Wade probably could as well, but IMO it's health-dependent. If he's a creaky 33 years old, the Heat may be willing to give him a new 3 year deal but at fewer annual dollars than he's already under contract for.Lebron and Wade combine to make just a little more than Kobe this year and next.
Bosh, Wade and Lebron all have player options after 2014. Do they opt out and sign for less because of the newly passed more restrictive cap?
Nuggets are > * in the west.
Their 14 game winning streak is nearly as amazing as the 24 game winning streak of the Heat because the West is at least 2* better than the East. If you look at the winning percentage of the teams the Nuggets have played vs. the teams the Heat have played, the teams the Nuggets faced have a significantly higher winning percentage. Something like 55% vs 46%
I think Parker is hurt more then they are letting on. Ginobli is banged up and they have to manage the hell out of Tim Duncan's minutes. Those old timers don't scare me. We can beat the Thunder too.
Nuggets v. Heat finals
Its possible
Nuggets are > * in the west.
Their 14 game winning streak is nearly as amazing as the 24 game winning streak of the Heat because the West is at least 2* better than the East. If you look at the winning percentage of the teams the Nuggets have played vs. the teams the Heat have played, the teams the Nuggets faced have a significantly higher winning percentage. Something like 55% vs 46%
I think Parker is hurt more then they are letting on. Ginobli is banged up and they have to manage the hell out of Tim Duncan's minutes. Those old timers don't scare me. We can beat the Thunder too.
Nuggets v. Heat finals
Its possible
I like the Nuggets, and with home court advantage, they're going to be virtually unstoppable in the playoffs. But let's not oversell the streak. The Nuggets have the best home court advantage of any team in the league, narrowly edging out San Antonio and Miami. On this streak, they've beaten good teams in Denver and a bunch of scrubs on the road. Two exceptions; Chicago and OKC, and they won those games by a combined three points. Every other road win is against sub-500 opponents who aren't in the playoffs. So while their win streak is definitely impressive, if they don't go into the playoffs with home court advantage, they're going to struggle against OKC or San Antonio in a long series.
That said, with the way things are going now, they might not have to worry about that until the WCF. Denver is looking like a place where the visiting team just can't win, and if they can exploit that advantage, they should go far.
I like the Nuggets, and with home court advantage, they're going to be virtually unstoppable in the playoffs. But let's not oversell the streak. The Nuggets have the best home court advantage of any team in the league, narrowly edging out San Antonio and Miami. On this streak, they've beaten good teams in Denver and a bunch of scrubs on the road. Two exceptions; Chicago and OKC, and they won those games by a combined three points. Every other road win is against sub-500 opponents who aren't in the playoffs. So while their win streak is definitely impressive, if they don't go into the playoffs with home court advantage, they're going to struggle against OKC or San Antonio in a long series.
That said, with the way things are going now, they might not have to worry about that until the WCF. Denver is looking like a place where the visiting team just can't win, and if they can exploit that advantage, they should go far.
I'm not all-in on the Nuggets bandwagon, but they beat the Thunder IN OKC by 10 just Tuesday. The night right after the overtime game in Chicago. So check your math. Sitting 3 GB of the Thunder, they still have a slim shot of winning the division and securing the #2 seed in the WC.I like the Nuggets, and with home court advantage, they're going to be virtually unstoppable in the playoffs. But let's not oversell the streak. The Nuggets have the best home court advantage of any team in the league, narrowly edging out San Antonio and Miami. On this streak, they've beaten good teams in Denver and a bunch of scrubs on the road. Two exceptions; Chicago and OKC, and they won those games by a combined three points. Every other road win is against sub-500 opponents who aren't in the playoffs. So while their win streak is definitely impressive, if they don't go into the playoffs with home court advantage, they're going to struggle against OKC or San Antonio in a long series.
That said, with the way things are going now, they might not have to worry about that until the WCF. Denver is looking like a place where the visiting team just can't win, and if they can exploit that advantage, they should go far.
I'm not all-in on the Nuggets bandwagon, but they beat the Thunder IN OKC by 10 just Tuesday. The night right after the overtime game in Chicago. So check your math. Sitting 3 GB of the Thunder, they still have a slim shot of winning the division and securing the #2 seed in the WC.
Nuggets are > * in the west.
Their 14 game winning streak is nearly as amazing as the 24 game winning streak of the Heat because the West is at least 2* better than the East. If you look at the winning percentage of the teams the Nuggets have played vs. the teams the Heat have played, the teams the Nuggets faced have a significantly higher winning percentage. Something like 55% vs 46%
I think Parker is hurt more then they are letting on. Ginobli is banged up and they have to manage the hell out of Tim Duncan's minutes. Those old timers don't scare me. We can beat the Thunder too.
Nuggets v. Heat finals
Its possible
Which is my point when the winning percentage is so much higher for the Nuggets (I know its over 50% combined winning percentage for their opponents over this winning streak) versus the Heat which I know is under 50%.
So although I don't know the exact numbers, the west is still way stronger than the east.
I wasn't sold on the Nuggets either but I am now. I think they can make a run. The Spurs are just too old, I don't see them as the threat the rest of you do