Long Shot Hot Deal: BIG GAME LOTTERY for MASS, MD, VIRG, GA, MICH, ILL, NJ $325 Mill~HooHa! 4/16

[gotincon]

<< You loose money playing the lottery when the jack pot is small, however, when the jackpot(paid out today, rather than over 20+ years) is greater than the number of possible combinations(which it seems people are saying is around 77 million) then your average payoff is greater than $1(assuming the pot isn't split, and ingnoring less than full match payouts 5 of 6 etc..).


This means you make money for every ticket you buy.(on average)


This does assume you are risk neutral, which when you talk about large amounts of money probably isn't you. To find out, if I gave you the choice between $10million dollars, and a 50-50 chance of $30 million dollars, which would you choose?



If you are like me, you would take the $10 million in a second, and like me you are Risk Averse. And there in lies the problem of using pure expected payoff for a lottery like this.



Regardless, this lottery is not a tax on anybody(except the people who played the last few times when no one won), and you can take advantage of it. In terms of expected payoff this is free money. The only question is if you would perfer a sure bet in your pocket, or a bet in your favor, but you still take a chance.


Note: Even if you consider the possibility of 2 winners and taxes, (which if you win, go employ a decent tax lawyer(or several), becuase then I'm sure you can figure out a way to pay a lot less in taxes) this lottery seems to have a sufficently large jackpot to appear to be clearly better than fair(in the sense that total payout>total pay in) so go for it.


Note 2: if this sounds interesting think about taking an economics course, or perhaps a decsion analysis course, that covers utility theory.

Orie >>




The cost of playing every single ticket is slightly above 76 million. 5/50*4/49*3/48*2/47*1/46*1/36=1/76,275,360

Not In your favor. Odds of winning are not based on how many tickets you have to buy to cover all the numbers.


Now that still isnt a good deal, since your gonna spend that much, and then get it paid back over 26 years, that is a very bad investment. So in actuality, the payout would need to be about 200 million dollars for it to be economic to buy every possible combination of ticket. Figure in theres no way you could possibly hope to buy every combination of ticket, well, it just aint gonna happen.


Now thats with picking a total of 6 numbers, anyone wanna guess why its virtually impossible to guess someones cc number and expiration date?

 

[dummy2001]

It is a tax because you are paying money to the government, same as if you pay a parking meter or sales tax, which you can also opt to avoid by not parking or buying. It is stupid because you won't win. It is pathetic because the people who can least afford it spend the most, because they are the most desperate for dreams of being rich. Granted, if you have a computer a lottery ticket is probably a trifling amount, but go to your local Kmart or convenience store saturday night and see who's buying $10 worth every week.

The help the schools crap is a rationalization. If you want schools to be better- give your dollar to the schools. Better yet, end the lottery and raise taxes to pay for better schools. That's what I thought: rationalization. I've lived in two states that used that help the schools crap to sell the lottery, and wow, schools are so much better now

What's disgusting is the free advertisements the lottery gets on the "news", with stories about how big the jackpot is and interviews with people buying tickets, repeating the lottery ad slogans word for word just like the people on this thread. I mean personally, I really don't care if you play or not. I just find it disturbing when systems that prey on the poor and uninformed become institutionalized, whether its the lottery or rent to own or paycheck advance shops etc. Well, I find it amusing how all the right wing talk shows have ads to buy gold (there's a smart investment!), but I guess I'm a little less sympathetic to mean spirited people getting ripped off.

 

[Tanner]

well...wish I could say I won some of this...but I didn't even PAY my stupid tax to play! hehehehehe

I think that 2 or 3 ppl matched a lot of them numbers

 

[CPA]

For those who think it is a waste of time to play, here's an interesting tidbit: "Hollywood" Henderson, an ex-Dallas Cowboy from the 70's, has won the Texas lottory......TWICE!

 

[CPA]

<< It is a tax because you are paying money to the government, same as if you pay a parking meter or sales tax, which you can also opt to avoid by not parking or buying. It is stupid because you won't win. It is pathetic because the people who can least afford it spend the most, because they are the most desperate for dreams of being rich. Granted, if you have a computer a lottery ticket is probably a trifling amount, but go to your local Kmart or convenience store saturday night and see who's buying $10 worth every week.

The help the schools crap is a rationalization. If you want schools to be better- give your dollar to the schools. Better yet, end the lottery and raise taxes to pay for better schools. That's what I thought: rationalization. I've lived in two states that used that help the schools crap to sell the lottery, and wow, schools are so much better now

What's disgusting is the free advertisements the lottery gets on the "news", with stories about how big the jackpot is and interviews with people buying tickets, repeating the lottery ad slogans word for word just like the people on this thread. I mean personally, I really don't care if you play or not. I just find it disturbing when systems that prey on the poor and uninformed become institutionalized, whether its the lottery or rent to own or paycheck advance shops etc. Well, I find it amusing how all the right wing talk shows have ads to buy gold (there's a smart investment!), but I guess I'm a little less sympathetic to mean spirited people getting ripped off. >>




And I guess it is those same right-wing talk shows that make people poor and uniformed?

"mean-spirited peoples" is dems speak for republicans, right??? I guess your views are not politically skewed.

 

[Nack]

Technically, this IS a deal. If the odds are 1 in 76 million, and the cash option is around 200 million if you win, that means that each ticket (each 1 in 76 million chance) is worth just short of $3.

Think of it this way. If you were offered a 1 in 10 chance to win $10, and you could buy those chances for 35 cents, wouldn't you buy some? Granted, it is VERY unlikely that you will win, but the chance of winning that each ticket represents IS worth more than a dollar.

The humerous part is that if someone could coordinate buying every possible ticket combination (i.e. spend 76 million dollars), AND no one else won (probably higher than 50-50), that person could theoretically more than double their money. Even if 1 other ticket won, they would still make millions.

Nack

 

[Chevydriver]

There is nothing wrong with playing the lotto. Yah the odds are bad, however if you don't play then your guaranteed to never win it. I'm not saying you have to go spend $20 or even $50 on tickets. Spending $1 puts you in the game. Your probably not going to win but at least you have a better chance of winning then not to play at all. For the people that won the lotto already, I bet a few had people tell them it was a waste of time and they should give to charity. Well now look at them, they are winners and hell now they can donate more than a $1 to charity. I myself don't play all the time and when I do its only a $1 or 2. Never more. I doubt i'ld win but i'm sure the people who have won already thought the same way and despite what others said bought just 1 ticket for the hell of it and it became a winner. Anyways thats my 2 cents..