M.I.T. molecular biologist makes elaborate case that Covid-19 was probably developed at and leaked from the Wuhan lab

[Muse]

Published in today's New York Times.

This link will work for 14 days, i.e. until June 17, 2024:

Opinion | Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points

The world must not continue to bear the intolerable risks of research with the potential to cause pandemics.

www.nytimes.com

This has been my opinion for several years. I saw ample evidence from an American insider (who was in China) that supported this.

A sample from the article linked here:

Given what we now know, investigators should follow their strongest leads and subpoena all exchanges between the Wuhan scientists and their international partners, including unpublished research proposals, manuscripts, data and commercial orders. In particular, exchanges from 2018 and 2019 — the critical two years before the emergence of Covid-19 — are very likely to be illuminating (and require no cooperation from the Chinese government to acquire), yet they remain beyond the public’s view more than four years after the pandemic began.

Whether the pandemic started on a lab bench or in a market stall, it is undeniable that U.S. federal funding helped to build an unprecedented collection of SARS-like viruses at the Wuhan institute, as well as contributing to research that enhanced them. Advocates and funders of the institute’s research, including Dr. Fauci, should cooperate with the investigation to help identify and close the loopholes that allowed such dangerous work to occur. The world must not continue to bear the intolerable risks of research with the potential to cause pandemics.

 

[lxskllr]

Haven't read, and may not cause I don't think I care. It's here, and needs to be dealt with. Things can be made "illegal" as much as you like, but if something is possible, it'll be done.

I'm curious about what the page looks like with scripting off. That's a peculiar arrangement, and I wonder how that happens?

 

[K1052]

Without the Chinese becoming way more forthcoming with information there is no way to prove or disprove this. Whatever the origin their government is highly motivated to conceal all relevant facts and that's not likely to change. At this point it's academic anyway.

 

[Muse]

Haven't read, and may not cause I don't think I care. It's here, and needs to be dealt with. Things can be made "illegal" as much as you like, but if something is possible, it'll be done.

I'm curious about what the page looks like with scripting off. That's a peculiar arrangement, and I wonder how that happens?

It's possible to unleash worldwide nuclear warfare. Will it be done? Not everything possible happens. There are lots of conceivable actions that never occur. Laboratories should not work on producing doomsday viruses.

 

[Muse]

Without the Chinese becoming way more forthcoming with information there is no way to prove or disprove this. Whatever the origin their government is highly motivated to conceal all relevant facts and that's not likely to change. At this point it's academic anyway.

The quotation I added to the OP suggests that information can be subpoenaed that may reveal the truth. I'll repeat it here:

Given what we now know, investigators should follow their strongest leads and subpoena all exchanges between the Wuhan scientists and their international partners, including unpublished research proposals, manuscripts, data and commercial orders. In particular, exchanges from 2018 and 2019 — the critical two years before the emergence of Covid-19 — are very likely to be illuminating (and require no cooperation from the Chinese government to acquire), yet they remain beyond the public’s view more than four years after the pandemic began.

 

[Torn Mind]

Misusing abductive reasoning is something the masses are programmed to do. Inference to the best explanation based on a particular set of observations easily is mistreated as "settled fact". The other is treating assumptions as fact, that being that natural outcomes are inherently favored over man-made tampering even though man is pretty good at genome modding.

I mean, the private emails between the likes of Fauci and other prominent scientists indicate a different outlook than the narrative put forth into the public.

 

[lxskllr]

And I shouldn't speed, I should always wear chaps when running a chainsaw, and I should always be tied in when over 6'. I don't do any of those things 100% of the time, even though they're against the law, and/or against OSHA regulation.

The only thing that keeps DPRK from launching nukes is self interest. All it takes is someone calculating they'll come up winning, and nukes will be launched. DPRK will tell you to shove your laws up your ass.

 

[K1052]

The quotation I added to the OP suggests that information can be subpoenaed that may reveal the truth. I'll repeat it here:

Given what we now know, investigators should follow their strongest leads and subpoena all exchanges between the Wuhan scientists and their international partners, including unpublished research proposals, manuscripts, data and commercial orders. In particular, exchanges from 2018 and 2019 — the critical two years before the emergence of Covid-19 — are very likely to be illuminating (and require no cooperation from the Chinese government to acquire), yet they remain beyond the public’s view more than four years after the pandemic began.

To believe that this information would be conclusive I'd also have to believe in a vast independent international conspiracy to conceal it, which seems unlikely.

 

[nakedfrog]

Haven't read, and may not cause I don't think I care. It's here, and needs to be dealt with. Things can be made "illegal" as much as you like, but if something is possible, it'll be done.

I'm curious about what the page looks like with scripting off. That's a peculiar arrangement, and I wonder how that happens?

View attachment 100369

That is very interesting, I opened it in a private window with an overlay blocker, and it generally behaved as I'd expect, but when I scrolled down, I noticed that the words were initially at an angle, and then straightened out after a moment. Not sure if it's intended to prevent unauthorized reading, or just a "neat design choice" to make the paragraphs more dynamic. Or both?

 

[William Gaatjes]

I read that the virus originated in a cave. And seems to be a typical bat virus. But it also seem to be able to infect fungi, perhaps it was nothing more than a typical fungi virus once...
And it is known that bats can be susceptible to certain fungi in caves.
Now you know why long ago, wise tribe men and women warned about wet caves and deep dark forests...

Perhaps some person may that person be a Chinese person or caucasian or African... Whatever... Did a Ozzy Osbourne...
"
Ozzy Osbourne Bit the Head Off a Live Bat 40 Years Ago Today
He'll never live down the infamous moment, even though the whole thing was a complete accident
"

Ozzy Osbourne Bit the Head Off a Live Bat 40 Years Ago Today

Forty years ago tonight, Ozzy Osbourne inadvertently bit the head off a live bat, leading to rabies shots and countless headlines.

www.rollingstone.com

Perhaps it was Ozzy Osbourne ! 😨


Anyway, for all background information about my assumption from about bats, viruses, caves and fungi, see this post :

Page 15 - Phage , the virus that cures

Page 15 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

forums.anandtech.com

When you read all this, it is interesting to think that a part of humanity, long ago lived in caves.
But probably dry warm ones and not wet ones...
But who knows...




As a fun sidenote for a good horror story :
Perhaps Strigoi, AKA Drelliks AKA Vampirshi...
Really came from caves infested with DNA mutating fungi and viruses...

No, seriously :
It is known that most RNA viruses are capable of creating germline mutations...
Perhaps all viruses are capable of germline mutations under specific conditions.
Resulting in offspring with altered DNA.
However that offspring may turn out to be...
So, that would be a quick jump reason for evolution. Which makes more sense than slow evolution adaptations.

Evolution happens in jumps and then stay stable, al teast that seems way more likely for me.
As another example Like having no magnetic field for a few hundreds of thousands of years would create a good environment for constant mutations because of the lack of magnetic shielding and guiding away to the poles of the Earth, against cosmic rays and other charged particles, fast nuclei. And so on.
Add all this together...

Perhaps a reason for the variety of human species, like for example homo sapiens as we currently are, and Neanderthalers and denisovans, homo naledi and other human species that can be found in history books and archaeology...
And perhaps a reason for the many variations of bats.

It seems the SARS-CoV2 virus can cause hearing problems. Perhaps the ifrst step of bat hearing ? Just kidding...

 

[IronWing]

Haven't read, and may not cause I don't think I care. It's here, and needs to be dealt with. Things can be made "illegal" as much as you like, but if something is possible, it'll be done.

I'm curious about what the page looks like with scripting off. That's a peculiar arrangement, and I wonder how that happens?

View attachment 100369

As one scrolls down the page, paragraphs rotate into horizontal position, first from the left and the next from the right. Probably fun as heck to program but not particularly useful.

 

[William Gaatjes]

As another fun joke while thinking about post #10.

M.I.T. molecular biologist makes elaborate case that Covid-19 was probably developed at and leaked from the Wuhan lab

Published in today's New York Times. This link will work for 14 days, i.e. until June 17, 2024: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/03/opinion/covid-lab-leak.html?unlocked_article_code=1.w00.E17K.lNKH7VYEklkG&smid=url-share This has been my opinion for several years. I saw ample...

forums.anandtech.com

Imagine that :
Perhaps the different kind of human races even came from such mutations while humans dwelled in caves, experiencing germline mutations for reasons cited in post #10 :
Some Asian couple while living in a wet cave having a baby while the parents experienced germline mutations :
And the baby turns out to be caucasian white or even a black baby !

Imagine the scene :
"
Male :
Whole ! You cheated on me !
You whole , srut that you ale !

Female :
How am i supposed to that !
Oul baby is the first to appear as a new race !
"

This could be the start of a new script as a 2027 addition to the comical filmseries : "History of the world part 1" starring Mel Brooks, Gregory Hines, Dom Deluise. And many many more...

 

[Brainonska511]

Paging @abj13 to the COVID thread.

There are a lot of leaps of logic that have to be made to accept the more complicated idea that COVID came out of a lab, and also ignore the more likely culprit of it following how nearly every other corona virus outbreak arose (zoonotic transfers) and the fact that people who worked in the market were the first to get sick.

Regardless of origin, the response by the Trump administration was atrocious and the reason for the outbreak have little bearing in how you would contain and treat an outbreak (hint: the methods used should be the same whether it was "lab leak" or zoonotic).

 

[K1052]

Paging @abj13 to the COVID thread.

There are a lot of leaps of logic that have to be made to accept the more complicated idea that COVID came out of a lab, and also ignore the more likely culprit of it following how nearly every other corona virus outbreak arose (zoonotic transfers) and the fact that people who worked in the market were the first to get sick.

Regardless of origin, the response by the Trump administration was atrocious and the reason for the outbreak have little bearing in how you would contain and treat an outbreak (hint: the methods used should be the same whether it was "lab leak" or zoonotic).

At this point I'm way less interested in where COVID came from and way more interested if the vaccine technologies deployed to end the outbreak can be utilized against far more deadly pathogens that we are likely to face in the future....like H5N1.

 

[Muse]

At this point I'm way less interested in where COVID came from and way more interested if the vaccine technologies deployed to end the outbreak can be utilized against far more deadly pathogens that we are likely to face in the future....like H5N1.

Speaking of H5N1, a 3rd recent case popped up in the USA, IIRC, 4 days ago? First 2, mild symptoms, pink eye both, I think. But the 3rd case is far more concerning because the victim has a cough. Coughing is conducive to contagion. Saw this in the NY Times yesterday, I believe.

 

[Fenixgoon]

interestingly, "lab origin cannot be disproven" is very different from "probably originated from a lab"

WATCH: Fauci testifies on COVID-19 origins and response in GOP-led House hearing

A Republican-led subcommittee has spent over a year probing the nation’s response to the pandemic and whether U.S.-funded research in China may have played any role in how it started.

www.pbs.org

besides, conservatives weren't legitimately interested in the origin of COVID so much as they were using it to hype up xenophobia and anti-china sentiment. it's a convenient vector for their objectives, rather than something of genuine interest.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

At this point I'm way less interested in where COVID came from and way more interested if the vaccine technologies deployed to end the outbreak can be utilized against far more deadly pathogens that we are likely to face in the future....like H5N1.

It would be great to know that if it was a breach, new protocols were being implemented specifically to keep a potential H5N1 outbreak from happening in the same way...

 

[Brainonska511]

I would note that Alina Chan is known for pushing this story from the beginning and has been unable to get her paper through any sort of peer review process, which makes the claims a bit dubious. Peer review isn't a panacea for truth, but it does provide a minimal amount of credibility by having experts review, and clearly, other experts do not agree with her conjecture.

 

[tcsenter]

I would note that Alina Chan is known for pushing this story from the beginning and has been unable to get her paper through any sort of peer review process, which makes the claims a bit dubious. Peer review isn't a panacea for truth, but it does provide a minimal amount of credibility by having experts review, and clearly, other experts do not agree with her conjecture.

Still have faith in peer review these days, what with the glaring evidence that a certain ideology-politic has beset so many formerly esteemed institutions? There are people everywhere who can barely contain if not even freely confess they support concealing truths and fact if it is in 'service' of a 'bigger picture' (which they have fully settled in some curated star chamber as being correct and paramount, will not tolerate or hear ANY dissent on it). The unconflicted ease with which so many people in recent years chastise or smear reputable others with calls like "you're helping the bigots" for perfectly valid sound critiques or criticisms gives me the creeps on a near daily basis. I see no reason to think this has not begun to infest other hard sciences if it has already compromised so many biology and anthropology departments.

I don't want to be blindsided again by a naivety that was revealed upon witnessing how many in the atheist communities seem to have lost their moxie and principles when it came to equitably extending the same barbed criticisms or even enthusiasm for derision of Islam and Muslims as they were heaping onto Christianity and Christians for 30+ years. So many were operating under a "bigger picture" motive (i.e. not "atheism" but decidedly anti-Christianity) that was very different from my own atheism or my understanding of their's (often based on their own prior statements, which seem to now be revealed as LIES).

 

[Brainonska511]

Still have faith in peer review these days, what with the glaring evidence that a certain ideology-politic has beset so many formerly esteemed institutions? There are people everywhere who can barely contain if not even freely confess they support concealing truths and fact if it is in 'service' of a 'bigger picture' (which they have fully settled in some curated star chamber as being correct and paramount, will not tolerate or hear ANY dissent on it). The unconflicted ease with which so many people in recent years chastise or smear reputable others with calls like "you're helping the bigots" for perfectly valid sound critiques or criticisms gives me the creeps on a near daily basis. I see no reason to think this has not begun to infest other hard sciences if it has already compromised so many biology and anthropology departments.

I don't want to be blindsided again by a naivety that was revealed upon witnessing how many in the atheist communities seem to have lost their moxie and principles when it came to equitably extending the same barbed criticisms or even enthusiasm for derision of Islam and Muslims as they were heaping onto Christianity and Christians for 30+ years. So many were operating under a "bigger picture" motive (i.e. not "atheism" but decidedly anti-Christianity) that was very different from my own atheism or my understanding of their's (often based on their own prior statements, which seem to now be revealed as LIES).

Peer review has known issues, and it isn't the be-all-end-all. The best peer review is replicable results.

Given the editorial nature of Dr. Chan's commentary though, replicable results are not really a thing, so then you need to rely on the plausibility of arguments. Asking other experts to weigh in is perfectly reasonable.

Plus, many journals are addressing some of the other shortcomings of peer review by publishing the peer review comments and the author responses/changes made to address the comments (eg, eLife, Nature Communications). Some even unblind the peer reviewers upon publication (eg, eLife).

Many of the points brought up in this oped have also been discussed at length in prior P&N posts that I don't feel like digging up. Suffice it to say, Dr Chan's conjecture seems to be largely unsupported.

 

[Muse]

Likely origin of Sars-Cov2 was 1000 miles south of Wuhan, the outbreak was in Wuhan, no zoonotic evidence in the 1000 mile span from likely origin site and Wuhan, doctors of the lab went mysteriously ill, IIRC, Dr. Shi died, actually went mysteriously missing from Chinese data. US was financing virus enhancement experiments in Wuhan lab. Red flags all over the place.

The Wuhan lab pursued this type of work under low biosafety conditions that could not have contained an airborne virus as infectious as SARS‑CoV‑2.​

China withholding data, really covering up what they know. Where there's smoke there's fire. No, could have just been smoke.

 

[Brainonska511]

Likely origin of Sars-Cov2 was 1000 miles south of Wuhan, the outbreak was in Wuhan, no zoonotic evidence in the 1000 mile span from likely origin site and Wuhan, doctors of the lab went mysteriously ill, IIRC, Dr. Shi died, actually went mysteriously missing from Chinese data. US was financing virus enhancement experiments in Wuhan lab. Red flags all over the place. China withholding data, really covering up what they know. Where there's smoke there's fire. No, could have just been smoke.

A zoonotic origin from a wet market doesn't exactly look good for the Chinese government either, given that was the location of the original COVID pandemic 2 decades ago. So basically, a problem they knew could have animal-to-human transmission, and they did jack shit about it.

And "gain of function" research has merits (eg, understanding how viruses and bacteria can evolve to be able to do new things and understand what signs to watch for in the field to help monitor for future pandemics); but that lab was also just doing tons of research on coronaviruses in general - doing the investigative work near the likely sources. For lab leak though, no one has been able to explain why you would choose a random coronavirus strain that is poorly characterized to start, then add (and get it to stay) a furin cleavage site that likes to vanish when cultured... there are a lot of things that just don't make sense. Just a lot of conjecture and hand waving.

 

[Torn Mind]

The wet markets should have leaked a disease decades ago. In fact, I'm surprised factory farms haven't leaked out something major like COVID yet(or has it already but not well-reported).

It itself has some racis, classist, and "intellectual superiority" undertones, even if Hubei's people eats weird stuff at times and the province itself is low on the pecking order. Nah, it can't be a malevolent political entity, negligence, population control, or some ulterior motive. It has to be trashy commoners and their trashy food practices.

 

[IronWing]

The wet markets should have leaked a disease decades ago. In fact, I'm surprised factory farms haven't leaked out something major like COVID yet(or has it already but not well-reported).

Factory farms don't breed trans-species strains because the animals are isolated from other species and the factory farms are isolated from each other as much as possible. The wet markets cram everything together. The lesson of trans-species diseases is birds, pigs, and humans: pick two. Putting all three together and diseases jump.

 

[Muse]

You can dis Dr. Chan because colleagues don't back her up but that doesn't mean she's wrong. Einstein worked in a patent office to support his family, couldn't get a job as a physicist, at the same time he came up with the most far reaching, revolutionary physics work in history.