Malaysian airlines has lost a 777

[Kaido]

i wouldn't call anything "obvious" at this point.

Most obvious is different from totally obvious Again, look at the facts:

1. No one has claimed responsibility (terrorists or countries)
2. ACARS & transponders were manually turned off
3. Plane flew off-course into the wide, open ocean for hours (after transponders were turned off, and still with nobody claiming responsibility)
4. Apparently the co-pilot has been having problems

If the plane didn't have mechanical issues and if no terrorist group or country has taken responsibility, then what's the next explanation? The most obvious explanation to me is some sort of "shameless suicide" method, which sounds crazy, but I don't know the pressures of the societies overseas, so who knows. I can't think of a better explanation at this point.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Most obvious is different from totally obvious Again, look at the facts:

1. No one has claimed responsibility (terrorists or countries)
2. ACARS & transponders were manually turned off
3. Plane flew off-course into the wide, open ocean for hours
4. Apparently the co-pilot has been having problems

If the plane didn't have mechanical issues and if no terrorist group or country has taken responsibility, then what's the next explanation? The most obvious explanation to me is some sort of "shameless suicide" method, which sounds crazy, but I don't know the pressures of the societies overseas, so who knows. I can't think of a better explanation anyway...

I don't think it sounds crazy at all. To the contrary I agree with you this is the most likely explanation. Still, the fact that the plane apparently kept flying for hours is . . . strange. It's certainly possible (albeit unlikely in my view) that the co-pilot took it, for the benefit of some state or non-state actor.

 

[rudeguy]

I don't think it sounds crazy at all. To the contrary I agree with you this is the most likely explanation. Still, the fact that the plane apparently kept flying for hours is . . . strange. It's certainly possible (albeit unlikely in my view) that the co-pilot took it, for the benefit of some state or non-state actor.

I could also see it where one of them decided to hijack and crash the plane. The other tried to talk them out of it for a long time and the plane crashed when they ran out of gas.

 

[Gunslinger08]

A group in China actually did claim responsibility, but nobody took them seriously.

If a country did see it on radar and shot it down, they may not want to claim responsibility. The US claimed responsibility for the airliner they shot down in 1988, but it was extremely obvious that they did it.

The current facts are consistent with someone taking the plane for piracy of some sort. Either they wanted someone on the plane or something in the cargo. Piracy (or future terrorism, which seems unlikely) would not dictate that you claim responsibility.

We also have to consider the fact that we don't even have all of the information that's currently available. This is a huge multinational undertaking involving quite a few countries that aren't exactly allies. These countries don't want to reveal the full extent of their radar or other surveillance technologies. In addition, if some knowledge does come forward that points directly at conspirators, we won't know until the investigation has concluded and we have captured/killed those people.

 

[Kaido]

I don't think it sounds crazy at all. To the contrary I agree with you this is the most likely explanation. Still, the fact that the plane apparently kept flying for hours is . . . strange. It's certainly possible (albeit unlikely in my view) that the co-pilot took it, for the benefit of some state or non-state actor.

The only thing I can think of is that he had some serious problems in his personal life (perhaps society pressure from the "disgraceful" pictures of the girls in the cockpit or whatever) and wanted to give his family a shameless "out". If he intentionally crashed out in the ocean, it's going to take forever and a day to find that airplane & try to piece together what really happened from the black box. I mean, it took like two years to find Air France and we had more tracking data for that, right? Now you're into a search field half the size of the United States, good luck finding it out there!

I'd like to believe that it landed somewhere and they were held hostage, but the coordination on that would be absolutely unbelievable, especially given how much communications technology people have. Even if they stripped everyone from their cell phones, people still leave cell phones in their bags & stuff, which could be pinpointed using GPS technology.

I'm guessing that the co-pilot took out the pilot & turned off the transponders, but continued flying for hours (into the middle of nowhere) without alerting the passengers, and then nosedived into the ocean. That way no one would suspect what was happening (it all looks the same from the air) and no one would have a chance to make an emergency call before they crashed (and would also be far out of range of any cell phone towers, especially if the co-pilot turned off the satellite communications systems).

I'm assuming it was either the pilot or co-pilot took the action, because not one person onboard made an emergency distress call, so they probably never suspected what was going on. And again, if it had been a systems problem with the airplane itself, why turn off the ACARS and then turn off the transponder, and THEN turn off course, and then keep flying for hours?

 

[Kaido]

A group in China actually did claim responsibility, but nobody took them seriously.

If a country did see it on radar and shot it down, they may not want to claim responsibility. The US claimed responsibility for the airliner they shot down in 1988, but it was extremely obvious that they did it.

The current facts are consistent with someone taking the plane for piracy of some sort. Either they wanted someone on the plane or something in the cargo. Piracy (or future terrorism, which seems unlikely) would not dictate that you claim responsibility.

We also have to consider the fact that we don't even have all of the information that's currently available. This is a huge multinational undertaking involving quite a few countries that aren't exactly allies. These countries don't want to reveal the full extent of their radar or other surveillance technologies. In addition, if some knowledge does come forward that points directly at conspirators, we won't know until the investigation has concluded and we have captured/killed those people.

Yup, and that's just it: we don't have all the facts. If they can find the airplane and get the black box, that will help piece together the story. If I remember right, there's cockpit audio recorders, so if the co-pilot took out the pilot, we'd hear the murder. Even if he hid it, the lack of a pilot talking to the co-pilot, a radio tower, or stewardesses for 4 hours would make it pretty obvious.

Given the circumstances, it just seems like he flew it out to the ocean to end it all & hide the evidence. Obviously this is all conjecture & I don't want to blame the co-pilot needlessly, just throwing out theories here. Could be aliens

 

[Gunslinger08]

Yup, and that's just it: we don't have all the facts. If they can find the airplane and get the black box, that will help piece together the story. If I remember right, there's cockpit audio recorders, so if the co-pilot took out the pilot, we'd hear the murder. Even if he hid it, the lack of a pilot talking to the co-pilot, a radio tower, or stewardesses for 4 hours would make it pretty obvious.

Given the circumstances, it just seems like he flew it out to the ocean to end it all & hide the evidence. Obviously this is all conjecture & I don't want to blame the co-pilot needlessly, just throwing out theories here. Could be aliens

The black boxes record on a 2 hour loop, so we won't hear anything about the initial turn off course. If it did crash, we may not every know why/who.

 

[TangoJuliet]

The black boxes record on a 2 hour loop, so we won't hear anything about the initial turn off course. If it did crash, we may not every know why/who.

Not totally accurate. FAA regs state that there has to be a minimum of 30 minutes. The NTSB recommended 2 hours but not all airlines are required to comply with that. Assuming the plane crashed, and even if they find the boxes nobody will know the real reason.(unless somebody says something incriminating) Of course people will speculate.

 

[Kaido]

Not totally accurate. FAA regs state that there has to be a minimum of 30 minutes. The NTSB recommended 2 hours but not all airlines are required to comply with that. Assuming the plane crashed, and even if they find the boxes nobody will know the real reason.(unless somebody says something incriminating) Of course people will speculate.

Wow really? That seems pretty short for a multi-million-dollar airliner.

If it was suicide by the co-pilot, I'd lean towards something like a heavy-duty sleeping pill used on the pilot. That way, if a waitress walked in, the co-pilot could say the pilot was just taking a nap and that it was his shift to fly, so no one would suspect anything.

 

[Kaido]

The black boxes record on a 2 hour loop, so we won't hear anything about the initial turn off course. If it did crash, we may not every know why/who.

It looks like there's 2 black boxes:

1. Flight data recorder
2. Cockpit voice recorder

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/03/11/289189214/what-would-it-take-to-destroy-a-black-box

A flight data recorder is required to store a minimum of 25 hours of flight information. A cockpit voice recorder is required to record a minimum of 2 hours of audio information.

According to that article, the searchers would have to be within 15 miles of the beacon to find it via sonar, and would need to find it within 30 days before the battery juice ran out - assuming it didn't get damaged.

From the data so far, it seems obvious that this was a deliberate act: ACARS & transponder turned off, flight goes off course, continues flying for several hours, disappears into the ocean.

 

[Kaido]

Some pretty good up-to-date information here:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/17/world/asia/malaysia-plane-up-to-speed/

It could have just been a crazy systems issue, who knows. Pretty weird all around though. I feel bad for the families, not being able to get closure

 

[Uppsala9496]

Can the ACARS and transponder be easily spoofed to display different information such as a different flight number?
Plane is stolen. Fly's again with ACARS and transponder off and into the shadow of another 777 and then switches on the ACARS and transponder to show the same information as the legitimate 777. Then it shadows the legitimate flight and at the last minute veers off course to commit some suicide crash into a high profile target.

And yes, I am bored at work.

 

[Kaido]

If I'm understanding the timeline right, this looks pretty suspicious to me:

1. ACARS was turned off
2. Pilot signed off verbally with Malaysian Traffic Control
3. Transponder turned off
4. Flight plan deviation immediately after transponder shut-off

 

[Kaido]

Can the ACARS and transponder be easily spoofed to display different information such as a different flight number?
Plane is stolen. Fly's again with ACARS and transponder off and into the shadow of another 777 and then switches on the ACARS and transponder to show the same information as the legitimate 777. Then it shadows the legitimate flight and at the last minute veers off course to commit some suicide crash into a high profile target.

And yes, I am bored at work.

<---- bored at lunch

It's fun to talk about from a solely technical perspective. Horrible from a human perspective of actually losing all of those people, but we're always drawn in by mysteries, and this is no exception. I've read two unofficial reports:

1. Pilot flew high to knock the passengers unconscious
2. Pilot flew low (>5000 feet) to avoid radar detection

One report was that it was flying by Perth. I dunno. All kinds of crazy theories out there. I just think it's pretty crazy that we can lose a whole airplane with all of the fancy tracking technologies we have now. Heck, the NSA probably knows where the plane is and just won't tell us :sneaky:

 

[IndyColtsFan]

I thought the pilot was the one with the alleged issues, not the copilot. Has there been an update I missed? The pilot is the 53 year-old whose family left him and was the protester, right?

 

[JEDIYoda]

Russia could have been testing out a new weapon called the Hijacker........hmnmmmm

 

[MrScott81]

Saw this theory posted by someone at reddit a few days ago, but never really took it seriously....but now...

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/p...ysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

Edit: Here's the original reddit theory comment:
http://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/20dopw/comprehensive_timeline_malaysia_airlines_flight/cg2uht6

 

[who?]

Doesn't the pilot get to erase the black box recordings if there isn't a crash?

 

[Ns1]

Saw this theory posted by someone at reddit a few days ago, but never really took it seriously....but now...

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/p...ysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

Edit: Here's the original reddit theory comment:
http://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/20dopw/comprehensive_timeline_malaysia_airlines_flight/cg2uht6

pretty decent theory, but still - there's only so many places a 777 can land rite?

 

[MrScott81]

pretty decent theory, but still - there's only so many places a 777 can land rite?

You only need one

The best thing about a theory like this is that there is actually hope that the people on board may actually still be alive.

 

[RampantAndroid]

You only need one

The best thing about a theory like this is that there is actually hope that the people on board may actually still be alive.

A few days ago, maybe...but at this point, even if the plane landed instead of going into the indian ocean, I have to imagine the passengers have been slaughtered by now.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

pretty decent theory, but still - there's only so many places a 777 can land rite?

I looked into that and found the video of a test Boeing did to see what sort of abuse the brakes and tires of a 777 could take. They were able to stop a fully loaded plane in 4000 feet from 180 knots. As the plane lands at about 140 knots and would have been far lighter given the low fuel load, a 777 can land in a remarkably short space.

 

[Kaido]

Saw this theory posted by someone at reddit a few days ago, but never really took it seriously....but now...

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/p...ysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

Edit: Here's the original reddit theory comment:
http://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/20dopw/comprehensive_timeline_malaysia_airlines_flight/cg2uht6

Wow that's pretty awesome! That would definitely be the heist of the century! Wouldn't local GSM cell towers pick up their cell phones though? Also, this is crazy:

Some have raised the statement that TCAS doesn&#8217;t work if the transponder is disabled&#8230; this is only partially correct. Other planes TCAS would NOT see MH370 at all. MH370 would not actively query other planes as it&#8217;s transponder is off HOWEVER it could still listen to any transponder output from other planes that are actively transmitting. SQ68 would have been actively transmitting while in-range of Subang ATC center.

Even if TCAS on MH370 wasn&#8217;t working for some reason, an in-expensive portable ADS-B receiver paired with an iPad and Foreflight app would allow a pilot to receive the ADS-B output being transmitted by SQ68 at that time.

 

[zinfamous]

more and more I am convinced that this was a KGB diversion to keep the world distracted while Russians in Crimea vote to join Russia as part of Putin's goal to remake the USSR.

The Baltics are now shaking in their boots (in fact, the local government of Riga has been in the hands of ex-soviets for about 4 years now). We shall see.

:hmm:

 

[Kaido]

A few days ago, maybe...but at this point, even if the plane landed instead of going into the indian ocean, I have to imagine the passengers have been slaughtered by now.

It would be an amazing twist if the passengers just started showing up somehow, like on a boat or something, just to make the story nuttier.

But I still think they just nose-dived it into the ocean. Otherwise, there would have had to have been an incredible amount of coordination to make sure everything went smoothly to hide an entire airplane with passengers, you know? I mean, they were able to hijack the WTC planes on 9/11, but all they did was crash it - no landing, no managing passengers or their cell phones, etc. And they didn't even make it all the way - Flight 93 didn't make it to the Capitol or wherever it was intended to go.