how does that explain the ok good night sign off after the transponders were already going off? It would be "oh fuck, smoke" instead of "good night"
If it had electrical problems, the ACARS & transponder would probably be the first things to go. Then, realizing there was a fire, the pilots made a beeline for the nearest airport & autopilot handled it from there. I think it would also explain why nobody called - they were all passed out from smoke inhalation. And why Rolls Royce continued to get data, why Thailand intermittently got data, and the satellite got ACARS data 30 minutes before the fuel ran out.
Give the update today that the search area is currently the size of the entire continental United States, yeah, we'll probably never find it. Bummer.
If it had electrical problems, the ACARS & transponder would probably be the first things to go. Then, realizing there was a fire, the pilots made a beeline for the nearest airport & autopilot handled it from there. I think it would also explain why nobody called - they were all passed out from smoke inhalation. And why Rolls Royce continued to get data, why Thailand intermittently got data, and the satellite got ACARS data 30 minutes before the fuel ran out.
Give the update today that the search area is currently the size of the entire continental United States, yeah, we'll probably never find it. Bummer.
how does that explain the ok good night sign off after the transponders were already going off? It would be "oh crap, smoke" instead of "good night"
Not an expert, so just more questions for me.
What are the chances that an electrical fire causes complete communication blackout, but that the airplane itself flies perfectly fine with autopilot for a few hours until fuel runs out?
Heck, if the pilots detect an emergency, wouldn't they have tried a last ditch attempt at landing before being completely incapacitated? I know things can all happen very quickly, but you'd think at least they would have disengaged the autopilot and tried something?
My next thought would be that the oxygen masks would deploy, but apparently those only last for about 15 minutes or so:
wiki said:If there is a fire on board the aircraft, masks are not deployed, as the production of oxygen may further fuel the fire.
Not an expert, so just more questions for me.
What are the chances that an electrical fire causes complete communication blackout, but that the airplane itself flies perfectly fine with autopilot for a few hours until fuel runs out?
Heck, if the pilots detect an emergency, wouldn't they have tried a last ditch attempt at landing before being completely incapacitated? I know things can all happen very quickly, but you'd think at least they would have disengaged the autopilot and tried something?
What I find interesting is that outside of US borders regions and Europe, this is the most radar/sat covered area of the globe and yet so little known about the location and flight of a large civilian air liner.
Have they mentioned any data on how much fule it had at launch and the corresponding distance it could make on the various projected travel arcs?
Its very possible that a small electrical fire started and knocked out electronics slowly. It could have produced enough smoke to incapacitate everyone on board. I'm not sure if a small uncontrolled fire would/could go out over time and not damage the aircraft.
Lets assume that is what happened - the pilots lost comms and navs. They were flying blind to Phuket where eventually the smoke inhalation took them out. The plane would just continue to fly on with whatever the last inputs were made. I don't think the plane would fly level - it would probably just oscillate until it crashed.
That also doesn't explain why it made that northwest turn towards the andaman islands. If nobody was at the controls some how it managed to make that turn then it would have continued northwest through India
Thailand's military said Tuesday that its radar detected a plane that may have been Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 just minutes after the jetliner's communications went down, and that it didn't share the information with Malaysia earlier because it wasn't specifically asked for it.
this negates the possibility of an onboard fire or electrical event.
12:41am: Takeoff
1:07am: ACARS reports
1:19am: Co-pilot says "Good night" to ATC
1:20am: Transponder turns off
1:37am: No ACARS report
why would it? its quite possible that they lost comms first, then lost the transponder and then the ACARS system.
If you go with Kaido's timeline
The ACARS could have gone offline anywhere from 1:07 to 1:37. I haven't heard anything definitive that said they knew for sure what time it went out.
1:19 last transmission with ATC, minute later transponder turns off, pilots notice smoke/fire and make the decision to turn. New route is inputted into the FMS and then the ACARS goes offline.
The key would be is if that route was programmed into the FMS prior to that 1:07 report. If it was then there is a high probability that the flight deck was compromised because the pilots would have said something to ATC at 1:19 rather then just goodnight
Even if you assume there was a cockpit failure, ACARS would have had to gone dead after 1:19 because someone programed into the console a LEFT turn and ACARS transmitted that information before ACARS went dead. Wouldn't the copilot had reported that an incident of needing to turn back if it happened before 1:19? If it happened after 1:19, why would you type in something instead of manually diverting in a catastrophic event?
Here is an interesting scenario: When the plane levels off and is in "cruise" that is usually the time when one of the pilots can take a break and use the bathroom. Lets say the captain does just this - tells the co-pilot to take the controls because he has to use the bathroom. The captain leaves the flight deck and proceeds to the underbelly of the aircraft to pull the breakers of the ACARS system.
When the captain returns to the flight deck the co-pilot is making his final transmission to ATC "all right, good night". The captain reaches over and turns off the transponder and the co-pilot questions him. Thats when the captain attacks him. There is a struggle and the plane climbs to the 45,000' and descends to 23,000' that were reported. The captain finally incapacitates the co-pilot and returns the plane to 29,500' (vfr altitude). The captain changes the flight plan in the FMC and heads west.
Like I said back on the 14th
If that report from RR is correct then it flew for 4 hours after the final communication with ATC. Unless they flew to the north (which is highly unlikely) or further west which the data does not suggest the most likely path they took would be to the south with the plane either landing on some remote island near Australia or into the Indian Ocean. Christmas and Coco Islands both have airports but the chances of it landing there and nobody saying anything is not likely.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/1...05.691048,15z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0
https://www.google.com/maps/place/1...96.832663,15z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0
Why is there no talk about the black box? Shouldn't it be findable no matter what for 30 days?
You can't be serious. ..
The Black Box is like The Cloud, man! It's everywhere!
Except the pilot in the cockpit would know the ACARs got turned off. Plus the power was not pulled in the avionics bay because the plane still pinged satellites.
Maybe one pilot went to take a leak/chat up the flight attendants then the second pilot locked the cockpit door.... depressurizing and climbing to 45,000 feet and in the process incapacitating everyone else on board. There are walk around oxygen units but in the confusion the locked out pilot may not have gotten one in the 2 minutes before passing out.
You can't be serious. ..