Markets in a tailspin

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Zorkorist

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2007
6,861
3
76
Seeking a deal with Iran to "strengthen" the petro dollar is just silly in light of how fucked the dollar is at home.

-John
 

StrangerGuy

Diamond Member
May 9, 2004
8,443
124
106
No matter how much the countries want to depreciate their own currency or central banks want to QE their way into oblivion, the simple truth is general consumer demand simply isn't there, when looking at fundamentals such rising incoming equality, technology and wage stagnation and aging demographics.

Some economists are even blaming the poor guy on the street for saving too much instead of wantoning spending to "stimulate" the economy in a world where the deck is stacked so hard against him just makes me L O L.
 

Zorkorist

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2007
6,861
3
76
We have to immediately call for a balanced budget amendment.

These "rulers/politicians" are killing us, with debt, etc.

-John
 

Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,650
5,224
136
You have that backwards. It's the government that owes that money to its bondholders. Our taxes are the de facto collateral to that debt, yes, but we the people are not actually obligated to its repayment.


Details details. Why are you ruining a perfectly good freakout with facts?

All is lost!!! Sell sell sell. Buy gold!! Buy survivor seeds! Hide your wife, hide your sister, they be raping everybody! ¡#Ronpaulmessage∆×15!
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,328
126
Long overdue correction with a buying opportunity coming up.
It's hard to make money from buying and selling if prices always go up.

How is it hard to make money if no matter when you buy something it's price continues to go up? A trained monkey can make money if prices always go up.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
Wonder what this will do to the housing market...

:hmm:


well. Interest rate hikes could make it so less people qualify for more money lowering prices OR/AND people leaving the stock markets put the money in real estate pushing prices up.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,938
136
Pull backs are common in bull markets. Take a look at this chart. It shows gain or decline in any given year (gray bars) and the largest pullback that year.

 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
My problem is I always want to time my roth ira buy in for the year to be on the biggest dip. I am going to wait for hopefully more blood letting on monday.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,563
9
81
Capitalism: Time For You, Your 401k And Your Tax Dollars To Bend Over And Take It,... Again.

Under a Republican president the economy is the government's fault, under a Democrat president the economy is capitalism's fault.

LOL, Democrats.
 

Newell Steamer

Diamond Member
Jan 27, 2014
6,894
8
0
I disagree that capitalism should be blamed for government distortions of the market place.

And yet the government was required to bail out the market place as a result of '08. Let me guess, the government was at fault for going through with the bail out, huh?
 

alcoholbob

Diamond Member
May 24, 2005
6,271
323
126
And yet the government was required to bail out the market place as a result of '08. Let me guess, the government was at fault for going through with the bail out, huh?

The sharpest market collapse in US history was the Recession of 1921. President Warring G Harding at the time correctly rejected suggestions by Keynesians to spend money and stimulate. Instead, he cut taxes, cut spending, and there was no bail out, and the economy fully recovered in a year and half, and the government didn't have to go into massive debt stimulating the economy, and the markets naturally re-allocated assets into productive ventures without government interference. The recession itself was simply a correction from the mis-allocation of capital in the market caused by the US government's involvement in WWI and the artificial short-term stimulus that was created.

What does a government bailout have to do with capitalism? Capitalism is about the efficient allocation of capital. In the free market when a company goes out of business, it goes bankrupt and liquidates its debt and that debt is sold off at a discount because servicing that debt at face value would be the opposite of efficient capitalism; throwing money from productive ventures to cover losses in a unproductive, unprofitable venture. A bail out of failing investments is the opposite of what happens in a free market, capitalist economy. All you've described is government central planning and blamed capitalism.
 
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Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,938
136
What does a government bailout have to do with capitalism? Capitalism is about the efficient allocation of capital. In the free market when a company goes out of business, it goes bankrupt and liquidates its debt and that debt is sold off at a discount because servicing that debt at face value would be the opposite of efficient capitalism; throwing money from productive ventures to cover losses in a unproductive, unprofitable venture. A bail out of failing investments is the opposite of what happens in a free market, capitalist economy. All you've described is government central planning and blamed capitalism.
Banks aren't ordinary businesses. They're responsible for the credit cycle. They create most of the money that is used in an economy. Since the fed's infinite QE over the past six years, people have tended to forget this important fact and have come to believe that it is the fed that is responsible for creating new money. Sure, they've created $3T+ of new money since the recession but historically, that's not their role. That is the role of banks.

When you have a deleveraging event like you did with Lehman, Bear Sterns, etc, that propagates through the economy like a virus. It's the money multiplier in reverse. Every modern economy is essentially a house of cards where everyone's cash is someone else's debt since that's how the multiplier works. Pull out too many cards at the base, which is what happens when you have a lot of loans going bad at the same time, and the whole structure collapses.

You can argue that banks shouldn't be too big to fail but there are certain efficiencies of scale that come with having a multinational banking system and huge banks with their fingers in multiple pies. You can force banks in your particular country to be below some arbitrary maximum size, but if other countries don't follow your example, their banks end up having a competitive advantage.

If you want banks to continue to fulfill their purpose as keepers of the credit cycle but insure that they don't continually make the same mistakes, the only way to effectively do that is through regulation. The problem with this though is that people will always find a way around the regulations.
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,298
5,729
136
meh, i'll just keep investing %75 in stocks and %25 in bonds, and rebalance every year or so

wake me up in 15 years
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
Who really believes their 401K will be there come retirement age 10 - 25 years?
Raise your hand.
I suppose we could turn over social security to the market, give wall street a boost.
Until they get greedy, that is.
LOL anyone?
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,573
5,095
136
The sharpest market collapse in US history was the Recession of 1921. President Warring G Harding at the time correctly rejected suggestions by Keynesians to spend money and stimulate. Instead, he cut taxes, cut spending, and there was no bail out, and the economy fully recovered in a year and half, and the government didn't have to go into massive debt stimulating the economy, and the markets naturally re-allocated assets into productive ventures without government interference. The recession itself was simply a correction from the mis-allocation of capital in the market caused by the US government's involvement in WWI and the artificial short-term stimulus that was created.

What does a government bailout have to do with capitalism? Capitalism is about the efficient allocation of capital. In the free market when a company goes out of business, it goes bankrupt and liquidates its debt and that debt is sold off at a discount because servicing that debt at face value would be the opposite of efficient capitalism; throwing money from productive ventures to cover losses in a unproductive, unprofitable venture. A bail out of failing investments is the opposite of what happens in a free market, capitalist economy. All you've described is government central planning and blamed capitalism.


There’s a big difference between inflation-fighting recessions, in which the Fed squeezes to bring inflation down, then relaxes — and recessions brought on by overstretch in debt and investment. The former tend to be V-shaped, with a rapid recovery once the Fed relents; the latter tend to be slow, because it’s much harder to push private spending higher than to stop holding it down.

And the 1920-21 recession was basically an inflation-fighting recession — although the Fed was trying to bring the level of prices, rather than the rate of change, down. What you had was a postwar bulge in prices, which was then reversed.

The key point was that the economy was nowhere near the zero lower bound, so there was plenty of room for the conventional monetary channel to work.

All of this has zero relevance to an economy in our current situation, in which the recession was brought on by private overstretch, not tight money, and in which the zero lower bound is all too binding.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,708
49,291
136
The sharpest market collapse in US history was the Recession of 1921. President Warring G Harding at the time correctly rejected suggestions by Keynesians to spend money and stimulate. Instead, he cut taxes, cut spending, and there was no bail out, and the economy fully recovered in a year and half, and the government didn't have to go into massive debt stimulating the economy, and the markets naturally re-allocated assets into productive ventures without government interference. The recession itself was simply a correction from the mis-allocation of capital in the market caused by the US government's involvement in WWI and the artificial short-term stimulus that was created.

What does a government bailout have to do with capitalism? Capitalism is about the efficient allocation of capital. In the free market when a company goes out of business, it goes bankrupt and liquidates its debt and that debt is sold off at a discount because servicing that debt at face value would be the opposite of efficient capitalism; throwing money from productive ventures to cover losses in a unproductive, unprofitable venture. A bail out of failing investments is the opposite of what happens in a free market, capitalist economy. All you've described is government central planning and blamed capitalism.

It's funny that you mentioned the recession of 1921 in support of liquidationism but neglected to mention the recession 8 years later where that philosophy had catastrophic consequences.

What you're writing looks an awful lot like Austrian economics. There is a reason why that school is mostly held in contempt; it lacks almost any empirical support.
 

cabri

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2012
3,616
1
81
How is it hard to make money if no matter when you buy something it's price continues to go up? A trained monkey can make money if prices always go up.

I found a small($600) 401K that made 1.5% in the past year. It was in some convervative fund handled by ADP (payroll processing).
Then they also were charging 3% service fees.

And now they want a 50 exit fee. Suspect it may be not enforceable.

A year ago the account was frozen when they switch investment systems so i could not pull it when I left the company.(US Tech)

Any advice appreciated
 
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