McCain now leads according to Zogby

[Lemon law]

Part of the reason the election of 1980 had such volatile poll numbers in the last week has to do with the fact that the lone Presidential debate of 1980 was held during the last week. And Reagan clearly won that debate according to almost everyone.

Do not look for a repeat in 2008, because the last Presidential debate was held over two weeks ago and McCain appears unable to find any issue to boost his campaign.

Even the Zogby poll looks very grim for McCain, Obama is within a point of breaking 50% and McCain has to get all the undecideds.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Part of the reason the election of 1980 had such volatile poll numbers in the last week has to do with the fact that the lone Presidential debate of 1980 was held during the last week. And Reagan clearly won that debate according to almost everyone.

Do not look for a repeat in 2008, because the last Presidential debate was held over two weeks ago and McCain appears unable to find any issue to boost his campaign.

Even the Zogby poll looks very grim for McCain, Obama is within a point of breaking 50% and McCain has to get all the undecideds.

Ah, didn't realize that. Was too young and didn't care then!

 

[BoomerD]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
popular != electoral. The election was over a month ago. It was over a week ago. It was over yesterday. It's over today and it MIGHT be over on the 4th

Fixed that for ya...This could be another long drawn-out election finish, ala 2000.

I expect the "Tom Bradley Effect" to kick in and fewer people vote for Obama than have said in the polls.
I just hope this one doesn't come down to another Supreme Court Finish.

 

[StageLeft]

Maybe but I would bet anybody that obama will win by a large amount of electorals--far too many for any but the most mentally insane to think the court has any say in this. This won't be supreme court. We will know comfortably on the 4th and know beyond a shadow on the 5th. Not really worried about a dragout, mccain's electoral numbers are horrifying for his chances.

 

[Woofmeister]

McCain is trending higher nationally but still trails Obama by a significant margin in every national poll. Interesting but irrelevant. The state polls have Obama leading in enough red states by significant enough margins that Obama will likely get more than 300 electoral votes. Add in all the early voting (while Obama had a larger lead nationally) and this election is over.

Can't wait to see what Obama's tax plan actually looks like after the election. My prediction is that even if he raises the top income tax rate, he will very quickly abandon his stupid plan to end the $90k income limit on social security taxes and his proposed increase in capital gains taxes (not that anybody will have much in capital gains this year).

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Woofmeister
(not that anybody will have much in capital gains this year).

I'm hoping that they (whoever) will increase the capital loss write off!

Oh, and Obama just surged to 10 point leads in both the Gallup expanded and the Gallup traditional polls. Back up to 6.5. Obama has actually been the one trending higher the last two to three days.

 

[Stoneburner]

So R2k, Raskassmussen, and Gallup all moved towards obama.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
So R2k, Raskassmussen, and Gallup all moved towards obama.

Something else have moved toward Obama (since I posted last) as it's went from 6.5 to 6.6 points up for Obama.

 

[First]

^ Yup. RealClearPoltics shows Obama up 6.6 nationally and up over 4 points in each of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, and tied in Missouri and Indiana. So worst case, Obama is looking at 353 electoral votes.

 

[jpeyton]

National trackers like Zogby average 3 days worth of polling before releasing a result.

The reason: for outlier days like 10/31.

Gallup has Obama up by +10 using both models.

 

[L00PY]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: L00PY
And on the odd chance anyone is actually interested in finding out more about polls, the NCPP has a very nice page that lists 20 questions a journalist ought to ask before reporting on poll results. I suspect that Zogby would fail to satisfactorily answer many of these questions.

I suspect most of them would as most polling people dont release their internals...

And what are you basing this on? Would you care to point out a reputable polling company that doesn't make much, if not all of that information available?

For example, Gallup listed their survey methods at the bottom of their most recent survey. As did Rasmussen. Even Zogby provides a link to their methodology at the bottom of the poll referenced in this thread.

 

[ProfJohn]

The Rasmussen poll is based on the national turn out being 40% D and 32.8 R.

In 2004 it was tied 37-37 and in 2006 it was 38-36.

This is IMPORTANT! For every point they over estimate the D turn out or underestimate the R turnout you can add or subtract a point from that candidate since both are getting nearly all of their party.

Rasmussen has the race at 51-46.
But if the turnout is the same at 2006 then it would be 49-49. Big difference.

 

[First]

Plus Democrat registrants have outnumbered Republicans by 2:1 since two years ago, so this race really should be closer to 400 electoral votes for Obama than 300. It'll definitely improve the U.S.'s image around the world after the 04 debacle, that's for certain.

 

[AlienCraft]

Unless Zogby and Drudge are doing the bidding for Bilderburg, it seems unlikely.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Evan
Plus Democrat registrants have outnumbered Republicans by 2:1 since two years ago, so this race really should be closer to 400 electoral votes for Obama than 300. It'll definitely improve the U.S.'s image around the world after the 04 debacle, that's for certain.

Yep, I can only imagine, in fact, the ridicule the US would rightfully receive if it chose McCain after the last 8 years. Truly the world would think America is full of idiots. And it would be right. This time, the country will get it right, though and gain a measure of respect that simply wasn't possible with Bush in office, nor would be with McWastingTimeNow in office.

 

[First]

^ Obama now up 6.8 across the country, with polls ranging from 5-13 points nationally.

 

[Aegeon]

And according to today's new daily poll results from Zogby, Obama is now up 10% again, so much for that trend.

Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1627

Basically you shouldn't pay much attention to anything other than the 3 day rolling average for Zogby, or you simply will end up with a bunch of false alarms regarding poll movements.

 

[OrByte]

imho the early voting turnout in this election pretty much blows any predictions to shit.

There is nothing to compare this too.

 

[jpeyton]

LOL, Zogby's 11/01 poll shows Obama +10.

:laugh:

Gallup had Obama gaining today too, +10 in today's tracker.

 

[Engineer]

LOL. RCP up another 0.1 to 6.9 now.

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: Woofmeister
Can't wait to see what Obama's tax plan actually looks like after the election. My prediction is that even if he raises the top income tax rate, he will very quickly abandon his stupid plan to end the $90k income limit on social security taxes and his proposed increase in capital gains taxes (not that anybody will have much in capital gains this year).

Um, the SS limit is $102,500 this year, and the proposed capital gains tax-rate increase to 20% would apply only to the top two tax brackets.

 

[Muse]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
If this election turns out to be anything other than a pro- Obama blowout, it will condemn the culture and mentality of America in a very profound way.

My feelings exactly.

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: classy
On drudge he reports that Zogby will announce on Sat. that Obama now trails McCain. Kinda astounding because it would be a 8 point one day swing. Drudge Home Page

That's why I have not changed the graphic on my map yet.

Cannot trust the polls as much as you can trust a stripper pole to be germ free.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Using real statistical analysis, Obama has a 96.2% chance of winning on Tuesday.

 

[Lemon law]

On the talking head show, even George Will concedes Obama will get close to 350 electoral votes, the dems will have 58-59 Senate seats, and make big gains in the house.

How the GOP managed to misread the message delivered on 11/06 is the real puzzler and now the American electorate is fixing to send the same message the second time.

And if the GOP still does not learn, the American electorate will send the same message come 11/2010.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The Rasmussen poll is based on the national turn out being 40% D and 32.8 R.

In 2004 it was tied 37-37 and in 2006 it was 38-36.

This is IMPORTANT! For every point they over estimate the D turn out or underestimate the R turnout you can add or subtract a point from that candidate since both are getting nearly all of their party.

Rasmussen has the race at 51-46.
But if the turnout is the same at 2006 then it would be 49-49. Big difference.

what if they are underestimating the d and overestimating the R? Which is probably the more likely outcome?