McCain now winning Independent vote

[dphantom]

Nice article from Gallup.

Gallup

Much is probably due to convention bounce but a 15 point gap between Obama and McCain is very large. And the article goes on to indicate a fairly significant shift of democrats to the McCain/Palin ticket.

Again, all could be temporary, but it willbe interesting to see if this holds up over the next week or so.

 

[jpeyton]

It's an electoral "math problem".

Obama wins.

Obama wins.

Obama wins.

But the nice thing about all these polls is that it will drive record numbers of Democrats to the ballot box on November 4th. Tight races explode turn-out.

 

[nageov3t]

definitely the bounce.

I think McCain's speech was really underrated by the talking head-ocracy. it wasn't a sweeping sermon that made me want to shout 'amen!' at the end like an Obama speech or a barn-burner like Palin's, but for a couple minutes in there, I believed in McCain.

will it hold up? probably not. Obama's still the clear front-runner.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
It's an electoral "math problem".

Obama wins.

Obama wins.

Obama wins.

But the nice thing about all these polls is that it will drive record numbers of Democrats to the ballot box on November 4th. Tight races explode turn-out.

We'll see, it sure didn't happen in 2004 when Bush beat Kerry even though Bush had bungled the first term of his presidency.

 

[QED]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
It's an electoral "math problem".

Obama wins.

Obama wins.

Obama wins.

But the nice thing about all these polls is that it will drive record numbers of Democrats to the ballot box on November 4th. Tight races explode turn-out.

Obama still has an electoral vote advantage, but his margin of error is much, much smaller than was just a week ago.

Ohio now seems out of reach for Obama. Florida and Virginia are in play for the Democratcs, but Michigan is now in play for McCain. Last time around, Bush had to struggle to win Wisconsin in 2004, but it looks like McCain will have no such worries.

Right now, it looks like McCain needs to pick up two states out of Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire-- certainly not impossible.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
We'll see, it sure didn't happen in 2004 when Bush beat Kerry even though Bush had bungled the first term of his presidency.

Kerry never bothered to expand the base in earnest; he didn't run a 50-state campaign and he didn't organize his campaign on the grass roots level at all (I don't even remember visiting his website once in 2004).

I think the heated primary helped Obama in a big way. Democratic voter registration and party identification is WAY up since 2004. This article talks about it.

If the race remains close, like the primary races remained close, Democrats will turn out in droves. That's a good thing and his campaign knows it; it's the same reason why he preferred to run as an "underdog" during the primary.

 

[Skitzer]

It's too early after the Repub Convention to be relevent ........ give it a week or 2, it will shift. I think this is going to be a very close race.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: loki8481
definitely the bounce.

I think McCain's speech was really underrated by the talking head-ocracy. it wasn't a sweeping sermon that made me want to shout 'amen!' at the end like an Obama speech or a barn-burner like Palin's, but for a couple minutes in there, I believed in McCain.

will it hold up? probably not. Obama's still the clear front-runner.

The problem for Obama now is how to seize back momentum from McCain.

If this is just a bounce that fades away on its own he is okay. But if this is more of a game changer Obama will need something to regain momentum.

At this point the only thing left is the debates. It is possible that Obama could find himself behind until the first debate.

And even then you never know what will happen. Everyone thought that Bush was an idiot who would get destroyed in a debate, but he held his own and did reasonably well.

For Obama the debate expectations are going to be so insanely high that he may never reach them. Also, look at what happened at Saddleback. Everyone talked about what a great job McCain did and what an awful job Obama did. Repeat that in a national debate with McCain holding a slight lead and Obama is in BIG trouble.

 

[senseamp]

Democrats should have nominated Hillary. I was telling you Obama is a flawed candidate.

 

[Balt]

Time and time again when people go into the booth many of them decide to go with the safe option or "the devil they know". In this election I think that's McCain. Unless Obama is leading significantly in the polls I really don't expect he will win.

 

[dphantom]

Originally posted by: Skitzer
It's too early after the Repub Convention to be relevent ........ give it a week or 2, it will shift. I think this is going to be a very close race.

I think it will actually be pretty clear one way or the other. I don't know which way, but I think we will see a clear electoral win as well as a 4-6 point popular vote win.

 

[senseamp]

Originally posted by: Balt
Time and time again when people go into the booth many of them decide to go with the safe option or "the devil they know". In this election I think that's McCain. Unless Obama is leading significantly in the polls I really don't expect he will win.

Which is exactly why the dems should have picked Hillary, it's the devil that everyone knows
Yeah, people may love to hate her, but they know that Clintons know how to run this country properly.

 

[ayabe]

None of these polls matter until after the debates start, that is when people will make their final decision.

 

[dphantom]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: loki8481
definitely the bounce.

I think McCain's speech was really underrated by the talking head-ocracy. it wasn't a sweeping sermon that made me want to shout 'amen!' at the end like an Obama speech or a barn-burner like Palin's, but for a couple minutes in there, I believed in McCain.

will it hold up? probably not. Obama's still the clear front-runner.

The problem for Obama now is how to seize back momentum from McCain.

If this is just a bounce that fades away on its own he is okay. But if this is more of a game changer Obama will need something to regain momentum.

At this point the only thing left is the debates. It is possible that Obama could find himself behind until the first debate.

And even then you never know what will happen. Everyone thought that Bush was an idiot who would get destroyed in a debate, but he held his own and did reasonably well.

For Obama the debate expectations are going to be so insanely high that he may never reach them. Also, look at what happened at Saddleback. Everyone talked about what a great job McCain did and what an awful job Obama did. Repeat that in a national debate with McCain holding a slight lead and Obama is in BIG trouble.

I would have to agree. McCain does not need to "win" the debates, just hold his own as Bush did. Palin the same, she only needs to have a reasonable good showing to be an asset to the ticket.

I think there is no question Obama is a much better orator and debater, so the expectation for Obama to have a hands down win will be high which also potentially helps McCain.

 

[nageov3t]

one thing I keep thinking about is the fact that these morons have already voted for Bush twice -- McCain doesn't have the onus of convincing them to do something new, just the same stupid thing they've already done twice.

 

[Stoneburner]

1. I see republicans are already playing the expectations game. Except, THEY ARE BOTH SHITTY DEBATERS.
2. These were numbers IMMEDIATELY AFTER A CONVENTION! How stupid are you to take stock in such numbers?
3. THEY ARE NUMBERS FROM ONE POLLING AGENCY.

 

[alphatarget1]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Democrats should have nominated Hillary. I was telling you Obama is a flawed candidate.

QFT

 

[dennilfloss]

Maybe a majority of independants are rednecks?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi...id_7600000/7600592.stm

 

[OrByte]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: loki8481
definitely the bounce.

I think McCain's speech was really underrated by the talking head-ocracy. it wasn't a sweeping sermon that made me want to shout 'amen!' at the end like an Obama speech or a barn-burner like Palin's, but for a couple minutes in there, I believed in McCain.

will it hold up? probably not. Obama's still the clear front-runner.

The problem for Obama now is how to seize back momentum from McCain.

If this is just a bounce that fades away on its own he is okay. But if this is more of a game changer Obama will need something to regain momentum.

At this point the only thing left is the debates. It is possible that Obama could find himself behind until the first debate.

And even then you never know what will happen. Everyone thought that Bush was an idiot who would get destroyed in a debate, but he held his own and did reasonably well.

For Obama the debate expectations are going to be so insanely high that he may never reach them. Also, look at what happened at Saddleback. Everyone talked about what a great job McCain did and what an awful job Obama did. Repeat that in a national debate with McCain holding a slight lead and Obama is in BIG trouble.

expectation game ON!!!!

 

[Red Dawn]

Well according to CNN Palin has won over men but not the women, I guess it's another case of men thinking with the wrong head. The Maverick and the MILF:laugh:

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: OrByte

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: loki8481
definitely the bounce.

I think McCain's speech was really underrated by the talking head-ocracy. it wasn't a sweeping sermon that made me want to shout 'amen!' at the end like an Obama speech or a barn-burner like Palin's, but for a couple minutes in there, I believed in McCain.

will it hold up? probably not. Obama's still the clear front-runner.

The problem for Obama now is how to seize back momentum from McCain.

If this is just a bounce that fades away on its own he is okay. But if this is more of a game changer Obama will need something to regain momentum.

At this point the only thing left is the debates. It is possible that Obama could find himself behind until the first debate.

And even then you never know what will happen. Everyone thought that Bush was an idiot who would get destroyed in a debate, but he held his own and did reasonably well.

For Obama the debate expectations are going to be so insanely high that he may never reach them. Also, look at what happened at Saddleback. Everyone talked about what a great job McCain did and what an awful job Obama did. Repeat that in a national debate with McCain holding a slight lead and Obama is in BIG trouble.

expecation game ON!!!!

And the right wing sheep are going to keep doing this. Also with Palin.

Here's an expectation game: IF McCain says "My Friends" during the debate, he loses!


The number of stupid children on this site is amazing.

 

[dphantom]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
1. I see republicans are already playing the expectations game. Except, THEY ARE BOTH SHITTY DEBATERS.
2. These were numbers IMMEDIATELY AFTER A CONVENTION! How stupid are you to take stock in such numbers?
3. THEY ARE NUMBERS FROM ONE POLLING AGENCY.

Point 1 - I don't see any expectation games being played. Obama is clearly the better debater - McCain does not need to win, but does need to hold his own. That is stating what may happen, not minimizing the results.

Point 2/3 - I qualified my post quite clearly. Maybe a reading lesson is in order.

 

[OrByte]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Well according to CNN Palin has won over men but not the women, I guess it's another case of men thinking with the wrong head. The Maverick and the MILF:laugh:

The HRC support group "WomenCount" has recently railed against the media for sexism.

But in the next sentence this group states that it is not supporting Palin or her politics.

The women that were already voting for McCain aren't going to change the outcome of this election. The women that represent the 'independent' or 'progressive' are the prize. I just don't know if Palin is reaching those women. And I think McCain might have a better shot at reaching this women voting group than Palin.

 

[SlingXShot]

Obama camp is making a mistake thinking that mccain didn't gain any new voters after the convention, and the polls won't come back like they used to be untill something drastic happens. I am sure the bounce will fade some what, but it won't fade to 0%, I am sure there will be a good 50% left over... thats my opinion... I guess obama camp takes some time... thats what turns me of with democrats, they just don't react fast enough untill it hits their head...

My second point, doing these useless town hall meetings are useless..obama needs to go on national stage, i dunno how, but some how and make his point nationally...

 

[Stuxnet]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
It's an electoral "math problem".

Obama wins.

Obama wins.

Obama wins.

But the nice thing about all these polls is that it will drive record numbers of Democrats to the ballot box on November 4th. Tight races explode turn-out.

When did I hear this nonsense before? Oh yeah... 04, 00...