Amazon was supposedly taking a loss on the Fire just like video game companies take losses on the systems they release. $200 seems like it'd be a huge loss though.
I don't think at $200 it would be a huge lost for Microsoft. Besides the larger screen the specs are similar to the Google Tablet which Google makes a profit on at $200-$250.
I could see Microsoft pricing the Surface RT @$199 then charging $49-$99 for the softkey/hardkey cover. They can take the lost on the Tablet itself but make the money on the cover accessories to break even. The profit will come from app store purchases (since its the only way to install apps on RT). This would let them quickly gain market share without burning through money.
For the Surface Pro I don't think we'll see any subsidized price on that one. It's going to cost Ultrabook territory. I don't believe it's going to be target for consumers (high cost) but at the Enterprise level. Remember Surface RT lacks domain joining ability... this way make sure that Surface Pro will be the only choice for Enterprise. Microsoft will also make pretty much zero on app store purchases on the Surface Pro mainly because x86 and desktop modes gives the Pro a way to install apps besides the app store and in most Enterprise enviroment systems are usually locked down to the end user. Microsoft will make money on the hardware for Surface Pro and from the volume licensing of its software.
The more you look at it the more it almost makes sense that the Surface RT will be priced low. Think about it if the Surface RT was priced in iPad territory instead of Nexus Tablet territory it leaves no price point for the ATOM based x86 tablets since ATOM + x86 costs more then ARM + RT, if Surface RT was priced at $500-$600 (like iPad) then ATOM tablets would have to be priced upwards of $750 which would be a tough sell. Makes more sense with the low price structure so you can have:
Surface RT: $199 + $49 to $99 cover, total approximately $250-$300, more app store purchase
ATOM Tablets: $500-$600, low cost enterprise choice because of x86 ability to join domain, less app store purchase
Surface Pro: $1000, ULV Ivy CPU, high end enterprise, laptop replacement, very little app store purchase