Microsoft: Xbox 360 to Sell 100m, Next Gen Consoles to Sell 1 Billion

[MentalIlness]

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/250978/microsoft-xbox-360-to-sell-100m-next-gen-consoles-to-sell-1-billion/

Microsoft’s senior vice president of Interactive Entertainment Business Yusuf Mehdi spoke with OXM about the sales of the Xbox 360, as well as the next generation of consoles. He expects the Xbox 360 to sell at least 100 million units before it is taken off the market.Half of the sales in the future he says will be replacement, while the other half will be new buyers.

"We believe over the next five years we can break a 100 million unit installed base," said Medhi. "That's something we're shooting for, it's not a financial plan as such, it's just rough numbers if you will. To sell another 25 million, half of those will probably come from replacements, but half will come from new buyers."

"And the way we'll break into those segments is by hitting new price points, getting new classes of entertainment to come with the Xbox, and breaking into new customer segments," he continued. "So you'll see the Xbox 360 continue to exist, even as we launch the next generation Xbox One."

He made a bold prediction when it comes to the next generation of consoles. Industry experts are expecting sales of 400 million between the Xbox One, PlayStation 4 and Wii U, which is about a 30 percent increase over what the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 and Wii are expected to sell lifetime. Mehdi is expecting that with an entertainment device that isn't dedicated to gaming that sales could reach one billion.

"Every generation, as you've probably heard, has grown approximately 30%," he said. "So this generation is about 300 million units. Most industry experts think the next generation will get upwards of about 400 million units. That's if it's a game console, over the next decade."

"We think you can go broader than a game console, that's our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units. That's how we're thinking of the Xbox opportunity as we go forward."

 

[zebrax2]

1 billion unit is completely delusional. We have some 7.1 billion individual on earth during 2012 that would mean 1 out 7 would have a console and even if let say every buyer of the console would replace it once in its lifetime that would still mean 1 out 14 individual would own one

 

[mmntech]

This just blew my mind. He assumes next gen consoles will sell 1 billion unites due to features beyond gaming. Yet both Wii U and PS4 are gaming centred consoles. So does he honestly expect the Xbox One to push upwards of 600 million units? Even juggernaut Apple hasn't sold that many iOS devices.

Seems a tad unrealistic.

 

[videoclone]

This just blew my mind. He assumes next gen consoles will sell 1 billion unites due to features beyond gaming. Yet both Wii U and PS4 are gaming centred consoles. So does he honestly expect the Xbox One to push upwards of 600 million units? Even juggernaut Apple hasn't sold that many iOS devices.

Seems a tad unrealistic.

PS4 will be able to do 90% of the same media streaming services as the XB1

Its the same replacement TV box as the XB1 is ... the WiiU will still stay as a Gaming mostly machine.

 

[purbeast0]

lol ... totally delusional

 

[dagamer34]

Sigh, he said 400 million to up to 1 billion. The actual question everyone needs to ask is "over what time period?" 5 years? 10 years? 15 years?

Perhaps there will be a new generation of game consoles in the future, but I don't expect general audiences to every buy a new console for entertainment purposes.

 

[dagamer34]

1 billion unit is completely delusional. We have some 7.1 billion individual on earth during 2012 that would mean 1 out 7 would have a console and even if let say every buyer of the console would replace it once in its lifetime that would still mean 1 out 14 individual would own one

Simple question is how to do you begin to reach higher than 400 million units. Only thing I can come up with is replacing the cable and satellite box. It's certainly possible, though not very probable. Who knows how things will work 10 years down the road.

It should be said that a pure gaming console will never push those kinds of numbers, but it should be pretty clear that's not what Microsoft is going for anymore. And while Sony's first press conference basically said "gamer gamer gamer", I think anyone is an idiot for thinking that Sony doesn't have similar ambitions (do remember that Sony Corp. owns Sony Pictures and Sony Television Studios). The PS4 will be pushing 4K just like how the PS3 pushed Blu-ray and the PS2 pushed DVD.

 

[Anteaus]

The title of this thread is BS.

Its only delusional if you take the numbers of out of context. The one billion includes all current gen sales, all next gen sales, and a little bit on top.

Based on the article:

300 million in sales already for current gen (PS3,XB360,NWii)

100 million in new sales for 360 in new users/replacement

Based on statistical increases, they expect around 400 million in sales of (XB1,PS4,NWU)

Thats 800 million right there. Also the industry is spreading out as casuals install base increases. I think they are expecting to pull that last 200 million in through PR and as tech gets better. I.e. as more people get faster internet, they will have a greater tendancy to buy devices to use media services and the PS4 and XB1 are marketing those components. These are people that might not have bought a game console otherwise.

I think 1 Billion is unlikely, but not delusional. For sure its PR, and anyone who feels the need to refute every claim isn't going to have time to game lol. Both MS and Sony has made a large amount of BS PR claims over the past 10 years. This one at least has some numbers behind it.

 

[jpiniero]

Unless the kinect spying is really that lucrative, I don't see why they don't just shrink the 360 again and cut the price to $99; and use that as their 'tv console'. Can't see people forking over $500 for a console to watch TV.

 

[Arkaign]

Unless the kinect spying is really that lucrative, I don't see why they don't just shrink the 360 again and cut the price to $99; and use that as their 'tv console'. Can't see people forking over $500 for a console to watch TV.

Yep, the the Xbone doesn't even play TV unless you already have a TV service, unless you're counting Netflix.

It's absolutely delusional, because non-gamers won't want an expensive, pay-extra box to access what they already pay for (Netflix/Hulu/etc). Even LESS so when all new TVs of any note have the apps built-in, along with a slew of stuff like Apple TV, Roku, etc.,

Microsoft is so full of hubris right now that it's insane.

Mr. and Mrs. Smith, 40-somethings with no kids, who watch an hour of TV per day and one movie a week, and play no games at all, do you think they're going to buy an XBone, then subscribe to XBL, then set it all up so they can wave and yell at their TV? No way in hell. I think a lot of people have hit their cap in extra electronics for the home, even as mobile stuff continues to expand. It's why Apple can dump millions and millions and millions of iPads out at high prices while BluRay players languish on shelves despite being under 100 bucks.

In short, XB1 is a box that is NOT going to grab the attention of non-gamers. It's expensive, cumbersome, and chock full of extra ads/paywalls that only hardcore fans will put up with in order to get to what they really want it for : games.

Zune, Windows 8, Windows Phone, and now Xbone. Each time, you have some good elements, but either they're competing against entrenched markets with no room for growth, or smashing their heads into brick walls by being insane (eg; not listening to enterprise customers out of the gate with a boot-to-desktop mode for business use in Win8, despite tremendous feedback indicating it was a no-go unless that happened).

Too much direction from the suits and the bean-counters, not enough direction from listening to what people actually want. Sony syndrome circa 2006 on steroids.

 

[Cuda1447]

I think Microsoft is getting mighty cocky.

 

[dagamer34]

Yep, the the Xbone doesn't even play TV unless you already have a TV service, unless you're counting Netflix.

It's absolutely delusional, because non-gamers won't want an expensive, pay-extra box to access what they already pay for (Netflix/Hulu/etc). Even LESS so when all new TVs of any note have the apps built-in, along with a slew of stuff like Apple TV, Roku, etc.,

Microsoft is so full of hubris right now that it's insane.

Mr. and Mrs. Smith, 40-somethings with no kids, who watch an hour of TV per day and one movie a week, and play no games at all, do you think they're going to buy an XBone, then subscribe to XBL, then set it all up so they can wave and yell at their TV? No way in hell. I think a lot of people have hit their cap in extra electronics for the home, even as mobile stuff continues to expand. It's why Apple can dump millions and millions and millions of iPads out at high prices while BluRay players languish on shelves despite being under 100 bucks.

In short, XB1 is a box that is NOT going to grab the attention of non-gamers. It's expensive, cumbersome, and chock full of extra ads/paywalls that only hardcore fans will put up with in order to get to what they really want it for : games.

Zune, Windows 8, Windows Phone, and now Xbone. Each time, you have some good elements, but either they're competing against entrenched markets with no room for growth, or smashing their heads into brick walls by being insane (eg; not listening to enterprise customers out of the gate with a boot-to-desktop mode for business use in Win8, despite tremendous feedback indicating it was a no-go unless that happened).

Too much direction from the suits and the bean-counters, not enough direction from listening to what people actually want. Sony syndrome circa 2006 on steroids.

You are aware this is already true, right? More than 50% of all time spent on an Xbox 360 is for non-gaming related activities. And that many people buy the PS3 as just a Blu-ray and Netflix player?

Perhaps at the beginning of this generation, the 360 and PS3 were pure gaming boxes, but it's obvious that's not what are to many people today.

This 2nd line is pretty hilarious. What paid product doesn't have ads today besides Netflix? Movies do. TV does. Radio does. Blu-rays do. Apps do. And on and on.

The proof that Kinect is a success is in the numbers. Please show me another gaming console peripheral with 33% penetration (even ignoring the fact that it cost $150). Maybe the DualShock for PSOne? And if gamers absolutely hated it, then that means "catering to casuals" was an even more successful (I assume by your logic that casuals are far less likely to spend money on peripherals than gamers).

If the XBOX One sucks, then let it suck. But I think if we went back 3 years ago, you'd probably think the Kinect was a piece of crap too (clearly it isn't).

 

[Zenoth]

This might well seem naive (and I think it is) but I really (honestly) didn't think that Microsoft had that much ego. A billion units? I'm not sure they'd reach that even if they'd still manufacture the units for fifty years non-stop.

And, side note, I.E. "reality check" (to Microsoft I guess), the best-selling video game console to this day remains the PlayStation 2, which has been in production for 13 years (it has officially been discontinued only recently, like early this year). Add to the almighty console's golden history the fact that it also has the largest games library of all existing consoles, ever. If you combine both facts of a decade+ in production with the largest games library you can imagine to this day, and if you understand that the console hasn't sold more than around 160 million units after that much time, despite its nearly-perfect road-map, then I think you can start understanding that reaching a billion units is just a tad too optimistic... just a bit, I'd say.

Also, recession, world-wide financial issues and Mr. Joe having problems paying bills, eating and all, cost of every day life increasing, stagnant salaries, people losing jobs left and right... not quite sure if the industrialized market they're fishing in is going to bite as much as it used to back during the best days of the PlayStation 2 (but I guess that would be another debate).

But anyway, you know what? Credits where due, yeah, if they (Microsoft) are that confident then... heck, good for them I guess? But you know... there's that other competing console called PlayStation 4 which seems like it's a much more attractive product, merely by comparison, but that's just me I guess. It surely has nothing to do with the console's popularity (and Sony's video games branch) and its mark and legacy on the industry since around 1995, it's probably my imagination and Microsoft products are the best thing on this planet, right next to Pizza and chicken pot pie, and cookies too (let's not forget about cookies).

Seriously, one billion units...

Mmmmk... *leaves the room slowly*

 

[dagamer34]

This might well seem naive (and I think it is) but I really (honestly) didn't think that Microsoft had that much ego. A billion units? I'm not sure they'd reach that even if they'd still manufacture the units for fifty years non-stop.

And, side note, I.E. "reality check" (to Microsoft I guess), the best-selling video game console to this day remains the PlayStation 2, which has been in production for 13 years (it has officially been discontinued only recently, like early this year). Add to the almighty console's golden history the fact that it also has the largest games library of all existing consoles, ever. If you combine both facts of a decade+ in production with the largest games library you can imagine to this day, and if you understand that the console hasn't sold more than around 160 million units after that much time, despite its nearly-perfect road-map, then I think you can start understanding that reaching a billion units is just a tad too optimistic... just a bit, I'd say.

Also, recession, world-wide financial issues and Mr. Joe having problems paying bills, eating and all, cost of every day life increasing, stagnant salaries, people losing jobs left and right... not quite sure if the industrialized market they're fishing in is going to bite as much as it used to back during the best days of the PlayStation 2 (but I guess that would be another debate).

But anyway, you know what? Credits where due, yeah, if they (Microsoft) are that confident then... heck, good for them I guess? But you know... there's that other competing console called PlayStation 4 which seems like it's a much more attractive product, merely by comparison, but that's just me I guess. It surely has nothing to do with the console's popularity (and Sony's video games branch) and its mark and legacy on the industry since around 1995, it's probably my imagination and Microsoft products are the best thing on this planet, right next to Pizza and chicken pot pie, and cookies too (let's not forget about cookies).

Seriously, one billion units...

Mmmmk... *leaves the room slowly*

The actual quote is "400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units" which includes XBOX One + PS4 + Wii U.

Seriously, chopping or misinterpreting words from a quote is the worst form of journalism. It's just lazy.

 

[IamDavid]

Its all about price. 1 billion is doable if cheap enough. I have 6 tvs in my home, all with dish, dvd, 1 htpc, 1xbox360, 1 ps3, 1 Wii u, 2 wii's, 2 roku, 1 netgear box.. I'd put one of these on ever tv and call it good if cheap enough.

 

[Arkaign]

Perhaps I worded things poorly. I'll respond to these points individually.

(1) Yes, I can totally believe that 50% of time spent on 360s is for non-gaming. This isn't surprising, but I would believe that 0% of those users bought the 360 NOT to game on. Having the incidental ability to do X, Y, or Z in addition to gaming is a nice bonus, but not a seller unless it's something super killer (like BluRay in '06/'07 era).

(2) The point about ads is not that they're all bad, just that it's a ludicrous idea that a non-gamer paying for Netflix wants to buy a $500 box, pay $XX/month for XB Live service, launch that service, see XB Live ads, and THEN launch Netflix, which their TV can already do for free in all probability. XBone has no 'killer app' that will rein in non-gamers. PS3 was a stretch, and the ONLY way it sold to non-gamers was because it was the most economically sensible BluRay player for a while. That time has come and gone, the consoles live or die by their games.

(3) Kinect is actually well made and a good product, I have no issue with it. You state it well though, it's a console peripheral. I don't know a single person personally that isn't a gamer who cares about Kinect. And I doubt very much they'd care after seeing it in use.

(4) Xbone may not suck at all when it comes to gaming. In fact, it will probably be pretty good and either just as good as PS4 if not close enough to not matter that much. And the die-hard console market is pretty big and pretty dug in, these are not people that are going to switch to PC or go for garbage like iPad/phone gaming for more than casual $1 games or freeware to piddle with between classes. However, if Microsoft's practices become so obtrusive that they simply start to annoy people en masse, then moving to a ready competitor will be easy. This makes a huge assumption though, that Sony doesn't lock games per license, tie retail games to PSN accounts, charge PSN fees to play Netflix, and so on. Remember the hype train last time on PS3? Everyone told us it would wipe the floor with the 360, but their Hubris, expense, and inattention to gaming cost them in the end. This time it's like Microsoft has been sucking down smug like no tomorrow, they are an easy target if Sony plays their cards right. Improve PSN, don't nickel and dime people, keep the used games market status-quo, and focus on high-quality gaming. If they do that, combined with the seeming lock on higher specs out of the gate and same-year launch, it's hard to see them not taking the crown in the big-console war. I still think Nintendo with sub-$200 WiiU + Mario/Zelda/etc can be a profitable also-ran.

I don't think it likely that Xbone will flat out bomb.

I do think they will probably miss their targets by a fair %, and have to rethink some things and restrategize a bit. Who knows, they may even do some of that before it actually hits retail and it all hits the fan this holiday season. I'm doubtful though. All of the negative decisions are ones that nickel and dime their customers to fatten the pockets of the execs and the fat cats at EA/NFL/MS, and they're only going to give them up if things are truly dire.

 

[dagamer34]

Oh dear god, when we live in a smartphone world where we expect everything to happen right freaking now, anyone actually wiling to put up with most smart TV interfaces an apps deserves a medal. Do they work? Sure. Would I willingly use them. HELL NO.

If smart TVs were a viable option, Roku shouldn't be selling as well as it does.

As for people spending $500 on a gaming box when they will never game on it, if you had told me that the price of the "desirable" SKU of the PS3 and 360 never hit below $249, I would have told you this generation would have been an abject failure. The past is not a clear predictor of the future.

It is not just about cost, it is about cost + value. And I genuinely believe that people are far more willing to pony up cash for stuff if you show them good value. It's the only way I can see the iPad with an ASP of $630 selling the numbers it does when most people just use it for games and surfing the web, something a computer they likely already own does just as well.

Also, I should leave this here: http://gematsu.com/2013/05/rumor-so...ight-cancel-plans-following-xbox-one-backlash (if they were thinking about it before, they will definitely be thinking about it again. And this isn't Sony-driven, this is publisher-driven).

 

[Doppel]

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/250978/microsoft-xbox-360-to-sell-100m-next-gen-consoles-to-sell-1-billion/

Microsoft’s senior vice president of Interactive Entertainment Business Yusuf Mehdi spoke with OXM about the sales of the Xbox 360, as well as the next generation of consoles. He expects the Xbox 360 to sell at least 100 million units before it is taken off the market.Half of the sales in the future he says will be replacement, while the other half will be new buyers.

"We believe over the next five years we can break a 100 million unit installed base," said Medhi. "That's something we're shooting for, it's not a financial plan as such, it's just rough numbers if you will. To sell another 25 million, half of those will probably come from replacements, but half will come from new buyers."

"And the way we'll break into those segments is by hitting new price points, getting new classes of entertainment to come with the Xbox, and breaking into new customer segments," he continued. "So you'll see the Xbox 360 continue to exist, even as we launch the next generation Xbox One."

He made a bold prediction when it comes to the next generation of consoles. Industry experts are expecting sales of 400 million between the Xbox One, PlayStation 4 and Wii U, which is about a 30 percent increase over what the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 and Wii are expected to sell lifetime. Mehdi is expecting that with an entertainment device that isn't dedicated to gaming that sales could reach one billion.

"Every generation, as you've probably heard, has grown approximately 30%," he said. "So this generation is about 300 million units. Most industry experts think the next generation will get upwards of about 400 million units. That's if it's a game console, over the next decade."

"We think you can go broader than a game console, that's our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units. That's how we're thinking of the Xbox opportunity as we go forward."

So much nonsense. So if a 30% increase is 400M over all three units, lets alone 1/3rd of that was xbox one, but he's saying 1B, and so he's saying the xbox one won't sell 135 M units, no it will sell 735m units. Yeah, no.

You are aware this is already true, right? More than 50% of all time spent on an Xbox 360 is for non-gaming related activities. And that many people buy the PS3 as just a Blu-ray and Netflix player?

Perhaps at the beginning of this generation, the 360 and PS3 were pure gaming boxes, but it's obvious that's not what are to many people today.

PS3 had one of the first blu-ray players. 360 had one of the first netflix access models that wasn't a pC. Now I can buy a bluray player for $50-60 and $60-100 buys me a slew of hardware that does netflix and a whole lot else.

At the end of the day this is a $400+, very large device that, other than gaming, doesn't do much (anything?) that a ton of other devices can't already do. My $110 blu-ray player access netflix, vudu, amazon prime. There was at least one product on kickstarter recently that was going to be the equivalent of roku except on a USB drive, so then it's tiny and can also be moved around easily.

Absolutely no success is guaranteed for a very expensive box that's supposed to do a bunch of other things that, at least at this time, already exist on the market. I literally saw nothing on launch day non-game related that was relevant to me at all. Presumably that will change and MS will have something else to show down the line.

 

[Veliko]

So much nonsense. So if a 30% increase is 400M over all three units, lets alone 1/3rd of that was xbox one, but he's saying 1B, and so he's saying the xbox one won't sell 135 M units, no it will sell 735m units. Yeah, no.

People are getting too hung up on the fact he mentioned a billion.

If you look at the entire sentence, there's nothing wrong with what he is saying.

 

[Tom]

In the real world..here's what the typical home will need to do everything..

a smart tv. a cell phone. a keyboard and some joysticks. add a tablet if extravagant.

With those things there won't be enough hours in the day to watch all the shows, play all the games, do all the work, that those few devices will allow.

 

[Anteaus]

That 1 billion figure includes all current and future sales combined of PS3, PS4, XBox 360, XBox One, Nintendo Wii, and Nintendo U.

He was talking about the console industry in total, not just Microsofts part of it.

Current sales already add up to 300-400 million with additional 360 and PS3 units being sold in the near future not accounted for yet. He is simply saying that by the end of the next "next-gen" cycle, total numbers of sales will likely approach 1 Billion. If you consider he is talking about new sales as well as replacement sales, it's reasonable. Somewhat optimistic maybe, but reasonable.

It helps if people actually read the press release instead of running head first into it. I think the OP chose the title on purpose to get people revved up.

 

[Nintendesert]

I suppose the tribesman in Africa and the untouchables in India might want an XBone, that's the only way they hit 1 billion sales...

 

[blurredvision]

You guys are being negative, I take this as news they will release the Xbox One at $20, since that's the only way they'll even come close.

 

[zerocool84]

He's specifically talking about next gen systems, WiiU, PS4, and Xbox One. I bet this coming generation will go on as long or longer than the previous generation (PS3, Xbox 360, Wii) which really went on for a very long time compared to how it has typically been.

 

[mikegg]

He's specifically talking about next gen systems, WiiU, PS4, and Xbox One. I bet this coming generation will go on as long or longer than the previous generation (PS3, Xbox 360, Wii) which really went on for a very long time compared to how it has typically been.

Current gen only sold what? 250 million total? He's saying 1 billion. Unless the Xbox One sells for $10, I don't think that's even remotely possible.

It was a dumb statement.