Spungo
Diamond Member
- Jul 22, 2012
- 3,217
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I'm not quite sure what you mean when you say "their status-quo"One needs to consider property taxes and their status-quo in this mix.
People always buy things on credit when credit is available. This goes back thousands of years. The bible and the koran both say that lending money with interest is evil. Someone wouldn't write something like that if it only applied to the Donald Trumps of the time. They wrote that down because it applied to a very broad audience. We've been borrowing things from each other for as long as people have been saying "I'll pay you tomorrow."Look at it in a more general level. As wages began to stagnate, people began to buy things on credit.
The infamous 1929 stock market crash was caused by people borrowing tons of money to buy stocks and then being forced to sell when a margin call is made. That was 86 years ago. We were the same back then as we are today. This isn't even limited to Americans. You can look at China's stock markets this year and see the same thing: google chart
It doubled in a year and then it crashed. That graph is everything you need to know about humans and how they use credit. There's never any restraint. People go full tilt no matter what. Is the interest rate 30%? Borrow the maximum amount you can afford to pay back. Is the interest rate 3%? Borrow the maximum amount you can afford to pay back.
Just a few years ago, people would actually borrow more than they could afford to pay back, and the only way to get the loan was through lying. They were called stated income loans ('liar loans'). You would just tell the bank what you get paid, and they didn't ask for paperwork because they were not the ones holding the bond; the bond would get sold to retail investors as mortgage backed securities or asset backed securities. China is seeing a lot of that same kind of wishy washy lending right now. This is their 1929 and 2008 combined. A growing middle class discovered investing and margin, they jumped in head first, and they'll all get broken necks.
Auto loans go way back to the 1950s and possibly earlier. The thing people need to realize about lending is that everyone can act like a bank to some extent. If you give something to your friend with the promise that he will pay you next week, you are effectively issuing him a loan. That's exactly what car and furniture companies do. They don't lend you cash like a bank. They just say you can drive the car away right now, and we'll only ask for X amount of dollars every month for the next Y years. Anyone can do that. A furniture store can do that, a car dealer can do that, your friend can do that, you can do that. Vendor financing has existing for probably thousands of years. The concept is not overly complicated. I'm selling some horse shoes and a saddle for a horse, you want to buy my products but can't at this time, so I agree to give you the shoes and saddle right now, but I want monthly payments for a certain period of time.Credit institutions "evolved." Before that, they would save whatever they could for major purchases. This extended to more expensive autos and mortgages.
The true evolution of credit is the process of securitization and how the internet plays a part in this. This is where someone can issue a loan and then sell the loan to a third party. A few years ago, the big scam was subprime home loans. Subprime meaning borrowers with shit credit. Right now, the big scam is subprime car loans and junk bonds to energy companies. The bank issues a loan to some company claiming to be a shale oil producer, but the bank doesn't keep the bond on their own books. The bank securitizes these junk bonds and then sells them to retail investors. You can track how these are doing right now by looking at tickers HYG and JNK ('junk'). As you can see, subprime has been crashing for a few months, and the value of those bonds is closely tied to the price of oil. That makes sense. Loans are only worth as much as the assets backing them. Securitization is a game changer because this is effectively a type of crowd funding. Where is all of the money coming from to create these shale companies that never seem to be profitable? People like you and I. People like your neighbors. Anyone with a trading account can be involved in this crowd funding just by buying a junk bond ETF, and these things are extremely popular because the fed has interest rates pinned at 0% and people are trying to save for retirement. In the past, it was a lot harder to get funding for companies with no earnings because the bank was the bond holder. The bank cared about the quality of loans, so they only loaned money if they thought the loan would be paid back. When the risk can be dumped on senior citizens and other people who don't understand what a "high yield bond" is, who cares? Just lend money to everyone regardless of how stupid their idea is. If the bank gets stuck with a lot of these "toxic assets," the government will step in to socialize the losses. See Bush's famous Toxic Asset Relief Program (TARP, aka giving trillions of tax dollars to the people who financed your election campaign).
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