Originally posted by: A1CSpence
Isn't time a significant factor in investment growth?
Yes, time is a significant factor. But so is (1) the cost of money and (2) statistical distributions.
It costs you 6% to borrow that $3000. Suppose you could do what you plan and get 10% return each year. Case 1: borrow the $3000 now, pay it off in full in one year, and have $3120 invested ($300 stock gain minus $180 CC interest = $120 net gain). Case 2: invest that $3000 a year from now. In 40 years, case 1 will have $128k and case 2 will have $123k. There is a minor difference. Borrowing money now would be $4937 better ($1347 in inflation adjusted money). So, yes, in this simplistic case, you would be slightly better off to borrow that money for a year. Paying the CC off sooner, is better than paying it off later.
But what about statistics? Stocks don't return 10% a year each and every year. Lets assume they return 10% for the last 39 years and see what happens if this first year is more volitile. What happens if you get a 5% return in the first year (because stocks are near all time highs, corporate profits are falling, housing is doing worse, the GDP is getting worse, and inflation is getting worse). Borrow money: $122k at end. Don't borrow money: $123k at end. You LOSE $1234 if this happens.
What about other results?
[*]If stocks fall 5% first year: Lose $13,577 by borrowing for one year.
[*]If stocks fall 3% first year: Lose $11,109 by borrowing for one year.
[*]If stocks fall 1% first year: Lose $8,640 by borrowing for one year.
[*]If stocks rise 1% first year: Lose $6,172 by borrowing for one year.
[*]If stocks rise 3% first year: Lose $3,703 by borrowing for one year.
[*]If stocks rise 5% first year: Lose $1,234 by borrowing for one year.
[*]If stocks rise 7% first year: Gain $1,234 by borrowing for one year.
[*]If stocks rise 9% first year: Gain $3,703 by borrowing for one year.
[*]If stocks rise 11% first year: Gain $6,172 by borrowing for one year.
[*]If stocks rise 13% first year: Gain $8,640 by borrowing for one year.
[*]If stocks rise 15% first year: Gain $11,109 by borrowing for one year.
So, are you willing to risk losing $11,109 to potentially gain $11,109?