To everyone saying that MS can now unbundle the Kinect and create a lower-priced SKU - this is not going to happen. The whole point is to make sure every console has a Kinect available so that developers can assume it's there. Sure, you can turn it off or perhaps disconnect it, but they are not going to fragment their installed base by creating a Kinect-less option. Of all the stupid decisions Microsoft has been making lately, bundling the Kinect is not one of them.
You say that, but in fact if XB1 is behind by more than 20% install base by Q2 '14, Microsoft will either :
(A)- Introduce a new, much cheaper Kinect-less SKU to attack Sony more directly
or
(B)- Loss-lead and drop the bundled Kinect variant at a similar price.
The problem facing Microsoft is that outside of hyper fanboys (all logic inapplicable to those folks, be they Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, whatever fanboy they are), not many 'core' gamers give a crap about Kinect. I personally know a couple dozen 360 players in their teens to late twenties, and every single one of them plays CoD and/or Madden, and usually Halo or Forza as well. Not once has any of them said 'I love my Kinect'. Hell, I don't think they've ever even mentioned it in a positive light.
I'm not saying this because Kinect 2 isn't hugely improved based on everything we know, but rather that Microsoft has a problem on their hands if their core gaming die-hards aren't excited about Kinect 2, or see why they even need it to play more CoD, Madden, Halo, Forza, Gears, etc.
Consequently, if it doesn't become a 'killer' gaming device for some serious titles fairly quickly, it will become abandoned by developers even as a pack-in. Hell, we can go back as far as the NES. It launched with the ROB robot, which of course was a marketing gimmick in truth, but despite their pack-in status, no dev wanted to touch it. Ditto even the light gun, which came with most NES units sold in the 80s. Duck Hunt was probably all 99% of people ever played with the light gun, and that was because it CAME with the system, lol. There were a handful of lightgun titles, but most were playable without the gun, and none sold particularly well.
It's apples/oranges, but the parallel about a gaming device being superfluous for mainstream gaming is true. Hell, look at the WiiU's 'tablet' controller. Sure it's sort of nifty, but seriously, are there any real titles of merit that couldn't have been designed without the use of it at all?
Maybe it's 50/50 or 60/40, I'd put slightly better than even odds that we see a Kinect-less SKU in less than a year of XB1's life. Odds go up if it's actually as expensive as they say it is to manufacture. This gen will be
incredibly brutal, and with Microsoft not looking super great in any areas, investors and board members will probably question the value of loss-leading tens of millions of consoles should they just want to continue packing in Kinect 2, do the price drop to stay competitive, which would cost them $XX to $XXX per sale. Easier to just say 'drop kinect, offer starter console for $299, done'. They surely have analysts coming out of their ears over there. Once they burn through the limited number of diehards willing to fork over $500 (these people are
not infinite), they will have to find a way to cut the price.