My prediction for Ohio

[BigJelly]

Bush wins by ~172,000 votes: Bush 2,861,000 and Kerry 2,689,000

Why i did it:
Couldnt sleep given the BS the stations were saying that it is still a tossup.
Im an excel whore

How i did it:
I used CNNs county by country and predicted the outcome by county and added them up--AS OF NOW

Yes i know its not perfect:
FYI i couldnt get info from paulding or willams counties. Also i checked the difference between the canidates in a county after new info is added (more % reporting) and in a large county of Cuyahoga it differed by 1000 votes (when going from 51% reporting to 67%) . In fact there was more error when Wyandot country changed (71% to 100% reporting) and gave an error or .7% (74 votes off).

FYI i will not edit this post. That way i could campare to the actual data tomorrow. If im right then i say replace the hundreds of "news broadcasters" with nerds like me in front of excel.

 

[BarneyFife]

How can you predict county by county? Did you look at the figures in 2000?

 

[BigJelly]

Originally posted by: BarneyFife
How can you predict county by county? Did you look at the figures in 2000?

Go here

 

[Kibbo]

Do those numbers include absentee votes?
Does anyone know how many provisional votes have been made in OH?

Apart from those two caveats, I will agree with you.

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: Kibbo
Do those numbers include absentee votes?
Does anyone know how many provisional votes have been made in OH?

Apart from those two caveats, I will agree with you.

200,000 provisional ballots in Ohio according to the guy on CNN

 

[Kibbo]

Originally posted by: rickn


200,000 provisional ballots in Ohio according to the guy on CNN

That's not enough to swing it.

/Puts on tin foil -- But of course, they're all Democrats!!! -- /Takes off tin foil

Anyone know if those tallies include absentee ballots?

 

[GTaudiophile]

OH is still in play for Kerry IMO.

But IA is still in play for Bush...and I think Bush has NM bagged.

 

[Emveach]

Originally posted by: Kibbo

Originally posted by: rickn


200,000 provisional ballots in Ohio according to the guy on CNN

That's not enough to swing it.

/Puts on tin foil -- But of course, they're all Democrats!!! -- /Takes off tin foil

Anyone know if those tallies include absentee ballots?

They do not. Absentee ballots are counted already.

<--- Ohio native. I been watching it very closely.

 

[351Cleveland]

200,000 provisionals? Doubtful. I am pretty sure they said absentee

 

[rickn]

Originally posted by: 351Cleveland
200,000 provisionals? Doubtful. I am pretty sure they said absentee

It is PROVISIONALS

 

[Rob9874]

Originally posted by: BigJelly
Bush wins by ~172,000 votes: Bush 2,861,000 and Kerry 2,689,000

I'm impressed. I think it will be close. Currently, with 99% reporting, it's:

Bush 2,764,809
Kerry 2,620,594
Difference of ~144,000