I thought Ron Paul won this debate, his answer about being true to your oath of office is one of the most important things and that we need people that we can trust was the best answer of the night. He's also the only one who's offered any hard plans to cut spending / government.
He comes off as the most sincere and doesn't need to hide from or explain his record like Newt Romney. Both Perry and Romney acknowledged the wisdom of Ron Paul on the last answer as well as the passion of his supporters.
Romney had that 10k bet thing that will hurt him and I thought Gingrich looked pretty weak last night, though he usually does well at these things.
I predict Gingrich will win Iowa and then close second place Ron Paul or vice versa .With Romney in third.
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If Ron was the nominee he would easily beat Obama because of the independent vote, in all polls they show they favor him strongly over Obama.
I predict Romney would win against Obama but it would be a tough race.
I predict Newt would lose against Obama.
I don't know what polls you're reading, but everything I've seen suggests Obama would beat Ron Paul quite easily, and for good reason. Every time I've seen Ron Paul debate or otherwise appear on TV, I get the impression that he's a smart guy with some interesting ideas he'll stick to no matter what (which is more than I can say for the rest of the Republican field).
But you know what I don't see? A guy who I can picture actually LEADING the country instead of lecturing it. And I suspect I'm not alone in that either, which is why Ron Paul has never been a realistic choice in a Presidential election. Ideas matter and integrity matters, and Ron Paul does well on those fronts. But I just don't think he has the Presidential voice or aura that makes people picture him in the Oval Office.
Right now Ron Paul looks like an alternative to politics that a lot of people are sick of (on both sides of the aisle), which is probably why he's polling as well as he is. But the longer this election cycle goes on, the more people are going to ask themselves if they like the idea of Ron Paul as a President and not just Ron Paul's ideas.