Moving from 16/14nm to 7nm should QUADRUPLE, not only double, the transistors density.
"Analysts agree Intel, the world’s largest semiconductor company, is still a step ahead of all comers with its process technology, but itrecently re-booted it’s still fledgling foundry operations. It is ramping a 10nm process now which some observers suspect will be the technical equivalent of 7nm nodes from Globalfoundries and TSMC."
Most 14nm out are technically half-node (16nm or even 20nm), as interconnects/BEOL are using older litho (28/22nm). That's why TSMC calls theirs 16nm. Intel is roughly FN to FN+HN ahead.
“Not all 10nm technologies are the same,” said Mark Bohr, a senior fellow and director of process architecture and integration at Intel. “It’s now becoming clear that what other companies call a ‘10nm’ technology will not be as dense as Intel’s 10nm technology. We expect that what others call ‘7nm’ will be close to Intel’s 10nm technology for density.”
The move to '7nm' is looong off due to costs. 14nm is going to be a long node, for sure.
"For many, it comes down to cost. For a 10nm chip, it takes $120 million for the design cost, plus 60% for the embedded software. In comparison, the total design cost is roughly $271 million for a 7nm chip, according to Gartner.
It will take chip designers about 500 man-years to bring out a mid-range 7nm SoC to production,” Gartner’s Wang said. Therefore, a team of 50 engineers will need 10 years to complete the chip design to tape-out. In comparison, it could take 300 engineer-years to bring out a 10nm device, 200 for 14nm, and 100 for 28nm, according to Gartner."
Compare the above to less than $30mill for a chip design at 14nm.
In 2007, 11nm node these firms forecasted to be shipping 21nm half-pitch chips by 2015. Right now, they are forecasting +40-50nm metal pitch. Intels 10nm gate pitch is 54nm -- far ahead of anyone else (hence why they've secured the mobile phone chip contracts - ARM).
So these FN shrinks are scaling at more like HNs, at best.
Edit: I lost the reference article... Will link here soon.
Sent from HTC 10
(Opinions are own)
Off-topic. This is about AMD, not Intel
Markfw900