That is wishful thinking. Have you looked at the Kaby lake release? Yes we all complain about the 7700k only being a higher clocked 6700k. But the real deal with kaby lake is once again mobile and relevant for this thread in the budget sector.
DIY is a tiny niche of the total sector. Not having an iGPU is actually a pretty serious handycap for OEM sector were the real high volume gets shipped. Intel now offers a hyper-threaded pentium with 3.5 Ghz clocks at $64 and an iGPU (only GT1 but good enough for office, and media use). AMD can't compete with that with a 4-core Zen as it lacks the iGPU. They need the APU for this sector. If ST performance of Zen is good-enough and the 4-core variant can clock a bit higher like 3.7 with 4 turbo, yes it will be great for budget gaming builds but that will not move huge volumes. For huge volumes you need to be in OEM market be it desktops or server. Also you don't want to market your new, high-end server product in the same segment as Pentiums and Celerons.
Therefore I have my doubts they will actually offer a cheap 4-core variant or one at all. Probably depends on yields as well. It it performs demand will be high and you want to sell as many chips as you can as 8-core versions without manually turning off functional cores and sell them as quads. If they do offer a quad it will go against lowest i5, highest i3 pricing so around $150.
I am not sure that you have considered the math at all and AMD's current revenue.
This CPU only Ryzen thingy is not for OEM, i have never claimed it is.It is for us,for the DIY market mostly and it is a huge market if you think about it.
If you look at JPR stats for discrete GPUs in
desktop, last year will end up at likely above 45million units. PCs with CF and SLI are a small percentage. There is a huge market in units for people that don't need integrated GPUs.
That's in units but there is a lot more than that to this. ASPs and margins are fantastic compared to OEM sales.In laptop they would get 70$ ASP and w/e volumes- Intel gets higher ASPs today because there is no competition and they milk the low power segment with a small die at high price.
In DIY it's much much easier to gain share as the consumer is better informed and more rational then the average consumer.These buyers ask for advice, read reviews.And Intel has left the door wide open, AMD can easily offer twice the cores with great margins and ASPs (up to 349$is actually great). In this market , given the context AMD can get 50% share, in laptop they need time ,marketing and they are lucky if they get to 20% share in 2018. This year and next year, CPU with,no GPU can generate much much more revenue and income that APUs.This is the lowest hanging fruit and the biggest opportunity as Intel has been severely mistreating the segment for so many years. They can also boost the market with a huge refresh cycle, boost GPU sales with it, gain billions in mind share.
If the octa cores clock to 4GHz or better ,the quads will do much better. Gaming doesn't scale with clocks ,some do but some scale with cores and the direction is towards more cores. You also don't understand what kind of hardware gamers have.very few pay 349$ for a CPU or more than 250$ for a GPU, globally. AMD won't lock the CPUs, might not even cripple them- Intel disables heaps of feature. And lets not forget that AND has the "as high as the cooling allows it" turbo. If you want to pay 300+ for Kaby with integrated GPU for gaming, instead of 179$ or199$ for a 4.5GHz (or higher with good cooling) quad Zen, it's not very wise but what do i care.
The Pentium you mention is dual core and yes Ryzen doesn't try to compete with that, that's the entire point for this platform and that gives it such a huge potential.
As for the remaining market, they will have APUs,from dual core 5W, maybe even lower than 5W since Zen seems to exceed expectations.And it is actually really encouraging that Vega is looking good.They already had a GPU advantage over Intel and Vega might make it a huge lead.Plus AMD actually works with game developers and that matters.The problem here is that the consumer market that remains (excluding the market zen addresses) is not that big- and do remember low ASPs and moderate to less than that margins. So the market in terms of $ is so much smaller and it's more difficult to reach the consumer if you don't have billions to spend on marketing every quarter. This market has been declining hard, the consumer PC. The business segment holds much better and that's the other segment APUs will address. Very high volumes but not great margins and ASPs and not that easy to gain share since Intel is so well established and AMD has been rather week in this segment.
You also seem to think that they won't have a native 4 cores Ryzen die but the hints so far point to such a die being launched from day one and as i said, any price band they don't address,is business left on the table and it just feeds Intel. It would be bad business.