NFL 2023 Season

[zinfamous]

WhO the hell wants Pete Carroll anywhere? Fuck that dirty mofucker

 

[pete6032]

Fuck that...let them play!

It's not about the impact of the snow on the game, it's more about the impact of the snow on traffic and people trying to get to the stadium. No way you can have a 71,000+ person event in the middle of a lake effect blizzard without creating serious safety risks to motorists.

 

[purbeast0]

Commanders got basically the hottest available GM out there. There is no chance Adam Peters would have come here with Snyder still owning the team.

I hope this is the start of something great.

 

[Torn Mind]

It's not about the impact of the snow on the game, it's more about the impact of the snow on traffic and people trying to get to the stadium. No way you can have a 71,000+ person event in the middle of a lake effect blizzard without creating serious safety risks to motorists.

I think some people died in the 50 incher they had last year, no football game on.

Pretty much, even Buffalo can't handle that kind of snow.

Where I'm at, even 4-8 inches, they wait until the shit is done before plowing commences, so you have roads not designed for "the usual tires" here in the DC area.

 

[JujuFish]

It's a shame the Browns got involved in their Watson bullshit. I would have loved to cheee for a Lake Erie Bros AFC Championship. Add in Detroit and there is a slim but real chance that 3 of the 4 teams playing for a conference championship are the Lake Erie teams. It's already the first time in history that all 3 made the same playoffs.

 

[dlerious]

I think some people died in the 50 incher they had last year, no football game on.

Pretty much, even Buffalo can't handle that kind of snow.

Where I'm at, even 4-8 inches, they wait until the shit is done before plowing commences, so you have roads not designed for "the usual tires" here in the DC area.

Used to live in Arlington until early 80's. I remember going to work at the Pentagon in the back of a deuce and a half with chains on. Chains broke and we had to walk a couple miles.

 

[96Firebird]

Where I'm at, even 4-8 inches, they wait until the shit is done before plowing commences, so you have roads not designed for "the usual tires" here in the DC area.

My fiance lives in DC, and the area shuts down at a couple inches. I'm visiting right now and supposed to fly out Tuesday, but they're expecting a snowstorm Monday into Tuesday and I'm afraid I won't be able to get out.

I live in Western NY, and was stuck in Buffalo for the deadly storm last year around Christmas. It all depends on rate of snowfall. If the lake effect bands persist in one area for too long, it overwhelms that area. Typically the bands sway north and south, giving some reprieve so the plows can catch up. Also, even though Lake Erie is shallow, it isn't freezing as early, or at all, like it used to. That really helps tamper the lake effect in the region.

Enough about the snow, my fiance's parents are season ticket holders at the 50yd line and are still expecting to go, as long as the game takes place there. I hope it does, but I also hope the Bills' run game shows up. It seems like they either have one or they don't, and with gusting winds I'm not sure how effective Josh's arm will be.

 

[IronWing]

Do we have to play The Rodeo Song here? Get your Buffalo butts to the game.

 

[manly]

It's a shame the Browns got involved in their Watson bullshit. I would have loved to cheee for a Lake Erie Bros AFC Championship. Add in Detroit and there is a slim but real chance that 3 of the 4 teams playing for a conference championship are the Lake Erie teams. It's already the first time in history that all 3 made the same playoffs.

Huh? What's your weird definition of a "real chance?" I haven't actually done the math, but the odds of those 3 teams playing in the conference champ games is between slim and none. It's no higher than 2%.

Roughly speaking, the chances of the Bills playing in the AFC champ game are about 50%. I wouldn't hold my breath on either the Lions or Browns though.

I like many of your NFL takes, despite your being a Bills fanboy. But re: the Browns, isn't now the time to cheer for them? Everything I've read suggests DeShaun Watson will return, and there's no erasing the stench of the Browns pursuit of him. But wouldn't it be wild if Joe Flacco somehow takes them to the AFC champ game and at least makes everyone wonder if they can dump Watson regardless of the financial consequences?

It's not unlike me wondering if my Packers can play in the divisional round, up until they get smacked by reality in Dallas.

 

[Torn Mind]

Cleveland
KC
Buffalo

Tampa, LA, Dallas

Picks to win

 

[Captante]

There DOES come a point where it's just too dangerous because the plows physically can't keep up with the snowfall. You could easily end up with several thousand folks stranded even in Buffalo where they're used to it.

Folks in Buffalo know a thing or two about HEAVY snow.

 

[Captante]

(1) Cleveland

(2) Buffalo

(3) KC

(4) Dallas

(5) LA

(6) Philly


Every one of these games looks to be a decent match-up too.

 

[Torn Mind]

(1) Cleveland

(2) Buffalo

(3) KC

(4) Dallas

(5) LA

(6) Philly


Every one of these games looks to be a decent match-up too.

Lol Philly. That D of theirs is a dissected worm by now. Mid-season coordinator swap. Room in shambles. Predictable Offense.

 

[JujuFish]

Huh? What's your weird definition of a "real chance?" I haven't actually done the math, but the odds of those 3 teams playing in the conference champ games is between slim and none. It's no higher than 2%.

Roughly speaking, the chances of the Bills playing in the AFC champ game are about 50%. I wouldn't hold my breath on either the Lions or Browns though.

2% is realer than any point in NFL history. Bills-Browns AFC Championship isn't that crazy at all. If Buffalo, Kansas City, and Cleveland all win this weekend (AKA no upsets), that sets up Browns-Ravens and Bills-Chiefs. Being in Buffalo and having already beaten the Chiefs this season, they would probably again be the favorites. So it would only take a Browns team upsetting a Ravens team, something they've already done once this season, and in Baltimore no less (though barely).

The Lions would need to take care of the Rams first (favorite), then they'd have to probably visit the Cowboys, where they were one misinformed eligible receiver away from winning in week 17.

None of that sounds particularly outlandish.

 

[Captante]

Lol Philly. That D of theirs is a dissected worm by now. Mid-season coordinator swap. Room in shambles. Predictable Offense.

I agree ..... they've been downright listless. Thing is Tampa isn't great either. (they are "hotter" coming in though)

 

[Torn Mind]

I agree ..... they've been downright listless. Thing is Tampa isn't great either. (they are "hotter" coming in though)

I believe in being a plant based pirate with a bakery.

and that Hurts is injured.

 

[MrSquished]

I agree ..... they've been downright listless. Thing is Tampa isn't great either. (they are "hotter" coming in though)

I'm all for Baker continuing his redemption tour by wiping the smirk off of nick siriani's face.

 

[manly]

2% is realer than any point in NFL history. Bills-Browns AFC Championship isn't that crazy at all. If Buffalo, Kansas City, and Cleveland all win this weekend (AKA no upsets), that sets up Browns-Ravens and Bills-Chiefs. Being in Buffalo and having already beaten the Chiefs this season, they would probably again be the favorites. So it would only take a Browns team upsetting a Ravens team, something they've already done once this season, and in Baltimore no less (though barely).

The Lions would need to take care of the Rams first (favorite), then they'd have to probably visit the Cowboys, where they were one misinformed eligible receiver away from winning in week 17.

None of that sounds particularly outlandish.

Well yeah sure 2% is "real" compared to something that has never happened before. There's something about the NFL where people say weird or outlandish things with absolutely no self-awareness. You listed a bunch of independent events that could plausibly happen; in fact some of them will happen. It's the unlikelihood of them ALL happening that makes it a real long shot for the Bills, Browns AND Lions to all play in the conference championships.

I'm not guaranteeing it won't happen, and I'm not saying the sequence of events you're suggesting is crazy. But something that happens less than 2% of the time is not a "real chance."

If you used ESPN FPI as a model, there's about a 6% chance of a Bills/Browns AFC champ game. Yes, that IS crazy and very few people would bet on it with anything but some throwaway money. Keep in mind that I've already said in this thread that the NFL playoffs is highly unpredictable and lots of weird shit can happen. Not to play semantic games, but that doesn't mean you can string together a sequence of increasingly unlikely events and say "there's a real chance."

FWIW Cleveland is only a small favorite this weekend to beat the Texans. But the interesting thing is that EITHER way, you could say Deshaun Watson loses. That's something worth cheering for. Nobody had Houston this far along in their process, much less with a rookie QB.

For the record, I hate losing money and I don't bet on sports. If I can ignore some other engagements, I'll just be happy enjoying perhaps the best week on the NFL calendar. Get your 🍿 ready.

 

[Torn Mind]

Well yeah sure 2% is "real" compared to something that has never happened before. There's something about the NFL where people say weird or outlandish things with absolutely no self-awareness. You listed a bunch of independent events that could plausibly happen; in fact some of them will happen. It's the unlikelihood of them ALL happening that makes it a real long shot for the Bills, Browns AND Lions to all play in the conference championships.

I'm not guaranteeing it won't happen, and I'm not saying the sequence of events you're suggesting is crazy. But something that happens less than 2% of the time is not a "real chance."

If you used ESPN FPI as a model, there's about a 6% chance of a Bills/Browns AFC champ game. Yes, that IS crazy and very few people would bet on it with anything but some throwaway money. Keep in mind that I've already said in this thread that the NFL playoffs is highly unpredictable and lots of weird shit can happen. Not to play semantic games, but that doesn't mean you can string together a sequence of increasingly unlikely events and say "there's a real chance."

FWIW Cleveland is only a small favorite this weekend to beat the Texans. But the interesting thing is that EITHER way, you could say Deshaun Watson loses. That's something worth cheering for. Nobody had Houston this far along in their process, much less with a rookie QB.

For the record, I hate losing money and I don't bet on sports. If I can ignore some other engagements, I'll just be happy enjoying perhaps the best week on the NFL calendar. Get your 🍿 ready.

I think he was pretty clear. "Slim but real chance" was the whole phrase.

It's an actual possibility though improbable is the meaning I got from reading his statement.

 

[manly]

I think he was pretty clear. "Slim but real chance" was the whole phrase.

It's an actual possibility though improbable is the meaning I got from reading his statement.

Nothing he wrote implied improbable. If people want to redefine common usage of the English language, then whatever.

At what point is highly unlikely still considered real or possible? If you think 2% still fits, what about 1%? Or 1 in 300?

Do my Packers have a "real chance" of winning the Super Bowl? Hey, anything's possible!

 

[JujuFish]

Nothing he wrote implied improbable

TIL a "slim" chance is not improbable. Who knew?

 

[JujuFish]

Not to play semantic games, but that doesn't mean you can string together a sequence of increasingly unlikely events and say "there's a real chance."

Any sequence of events becomes increasingly unlikely. That's how chances work, unless one of those events is literally 100%. It is impossible for a sequence of events to become more likely. Flipping 10 heads in a row in very unlikely. But equally unlikely is flipping 2 heads, followed by 3 tails, followed by heads, tails, heads, tails, heads. Your argument that my particular scenario is not a real chance holds no water unless you think that no scenarios hold any real chance. And if that's the case, why are we even having this discussion?

 

[Torn Mind]

Nothing he wrote implied improbable. If people want to redefine common usage of the English language, then whatever.

At what point is highly unlikely still considered real or possible? If you think 2% still fits, what about 1%? Or 1 in 300?

Do my Packers have a "real chance" of winning the Super Bowl? Hey, anything's possible!

It's a phrase with compound ideas. Just splitting it up allows one to see two ideas being conveyed
There is a real chance
There is a slim chance.
"But" is used to show contrast between the two ideas. The component after "but" is the where there is greater emphasis. A good sword is flexible but hard(or "yet" instead of "but").
Slim chance means the it's not a probable outcome. Slim is in its various senses conveys "small". Definitions of chance are provided below. This should be enough to rebut your first statement.
Real chance means the outcome could happen.

Definitions of Chance

1
a
: something that happens unpredictably without discernible human intention or observable cause
Which cards you are dealt is simply a matter of chance.

b
: the assumed impersonal purposeless determiner of unaccountable happenings : LUCK
an outcome decided by chance

c
: the fortuitous or incalculable element in existence : CONTINGENCY
… you surely have endured strange chances …—Alfred Tennyson


2
: a situation favoring some purpose : OPPORTUNITY
needed a chance to relax


3
: a fielding opportunity in baseball

4
a
: the possibility of a particular outcome in an uncertain situation
What chance has he of pulling through?

also : the degree of likelihood of such an outcome
a small chance of success

b
chances plural : the more likely indications
chances are he's already gone


5
a
: RISK
not taking any chances

b
: a raffle ticket

Definitions of real:
Cambridge

existing in fact and not imaginary:

M-W

a
: having objective independent existence
unable to believe that what he saw was real

b
: not artificial, fraudulent, or illusory : GENUINE
real gold

also : being precisely what the name implies
a real professional

c(1)
: occurring or existing in actuality
saw a real live celebrity

a story of real life

(2)
: of or relating to practical or everyday concerns or activities
left school to live in the real world

(3)
: behaving or presented in a way that feels true, honest, or familiar and without pretension or affectation

As I understand probability, 0 equals impossible. 1 equals guarantee. Anything in-between is what is colloquially called "chance". I've been raked through the coals with probability. College Math, statistics, economics.

A rollover at four way stop sign intersection is not exactly fathomable, but there is a real chance of it occurring. It's also a slim chance due to the normal speeds involved at a place. But it DOES happen once in a while(and I personally witnessed a car on its back at a four way stop sign intersection). Even less likely is witnessing any part of the accident, as only a few minutes later, the police and tow truck already arrived and got the car right side up again when I was driving back home.

I do believe there's some psychology involved in your utterances to me; you might think me not intelligent or fancy yourself quite so. This isn't exactly the best showing of those presumptions.

 

[olds]

Leave it to ATOT, come to the football thread for an English lesson.

 

[purbeast0]

Leave it to ATOT, come to the football thread for an English lesson.

Yeah I'm hoping they will now STFU about it and get back to football.