I'd argue it's not a coinflip, though I do think the line should be closer than Eagles -6.5, because even with our backup QB in, Washington barely won. I'd say the line should be more accurately set as Eagles -3.5.
The Eagles are a running team. They will pound you with the running game until your defense tires out in the 3rd and 4th quarter. That's the team this year. And a large part is predicated on Jalen Hurts running the ball on top of Saquan Barkley. And the Eagles defense is good enough to keep things close until the opposing team's defense tires and is gashed by big running plays. It's no secret what the Eagles are going to do. The problem for most teams is it's just hard to stop.
In the first game, it was a close game until the Eagles eventually pounded them into submission in the 4th quarter. I'd call it a solid win. I do understand that Daniels was a bit hurt, but the Eagles stuck to their formula and won handily in the end.
In the second game, Jalen Hurts got injured very early in the game. The Eagles had a very good chance to win it with our backup QB, and transforming from a primarily running team to one that had to pass more. Even then, it took a heroic effort by Daniels to win. Uncharacteristically, our defense gave up some plays on the last drive to allow Washington to win. And I'd argue that had Hurts not been injured, the Eagles likely could have kept the Commanders from having as many scoring chances, much like in the first game by running the ball and eating clock until Washington's defense collapses.
Washington was good, but also lucky, in their win over Detroit. I'm not saying it wasn't a quality win, but let's not pretend Washington was scoring points on a vaunted Lions defense. The injuries finally caught up to them. The lions had a defense made up of backups to the backups. The Lions defense finally collapsed. Kudos to Washington's defense though, because that was a very good performance against Goff and the Lions offense. The one knock on the win would be that even as good as the Washington defense played, the Lions still scored a lot of points.
It's funny that the "band up Lion's defense" was not a problem for them when they went 15-2 in the regular season, but they get smashed by Washington and now it is all of a sudden it's a problem. You are not even close to the only person I've seen say that, it's a recurring theme that is just being used for copium.
In the 2nd Eagles game, last I checked, Jalen Hurts wasn't playing defense. He wouldn't have been playing and giving up 5 TD's even if he was in. No QB had thrown more than 2 TD's against the Eagles until that game. JD5 threw 5. You also have to remember that the Eagles have 5 takeaways and still couldn't win. I'd say that is solid defense on the Commanders to allow that. Even though Hurts was not in there, Barkley was still playing.
I also didn't see the Eagles complaining about a backup being in there when Foles won them the Super Bowl.
Playing the if game in football is just stupid. So many games you can boil down to "if X then Y". If the Rams punt returner didn't drop that punt last week and let it bounce like 15 yards, the Rams would have probably came back and the Eagles would have blown a 14 point lead with like 5 minutes left. But you know what? It didn't happen so who cares.
Just so much copium, but you do also speak some truths. The Eagles are going to try and pound the ball and that is what they should do, especially with Payne out tomorrow for the Commanders. I'd argue that the game basically boils down to how Barkley plays. If he gets 2-3 homerun runs, then it's going to basically have to be a shootout for the Commanders to win. If they can contain him, then they have a shot. We also don't really know what Hurts health is and we won't until the game gets going tomorrow.
The first game was also pretty damn close until he got into those homerun runs again late in the game. And yah, JD5 was not himself that game for sure.
Jon Allen was also out for both of the Eagles games and he's been playing pretty well the past 2 games, but again with Payne out we'll see how it plays out.
If the Eagles play like they did last week, the Commanders have a great shot at winning. Yes I know the weather was bad but just overall they looked very off aside from Barkley being himself. I think the Eagles will have to score at least 30 to win this game if the Commanders can continue playing at the same pace they have been. It's also going to have to be as mistake free football as can be, which they have been doing a decent job at in the playoffs.
If the Eagles win, I'm blaming the Giants though. They are so stupid for letting Barkley go lol.
EDIT:
And win or lose for the Commanders, I am going to be happy about their successful season and will feel just the same about this team no matter the outcome. The future is bright for them and that hasn't been the case in 3 decades.
EDIT 2:
Also, the Commanders run defense is like ranked 31st or something like that. The team defense is like 18. Lions have Gibbs and Montgomery. And Goff. I'm not surprised they moved the ball and scored a lot, just like I won't be surprised if Barkley goes off on them. They are going to have to score points if they want to win.