Nissan to sell multiple affordable self-driving cars by 2020

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1prophet

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Aug 17, 2005
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-...ucks-taking-over-in-pilbara-mining-wa/5412642

Work vehicles may be among the first to be automated, because it's not about choice of driving vs reading news paper as it is for personal vehicle, where it's hard to put a value of one over the other. This is cold hard cash, a salary cost that can be eliminated.


This automation of automobiles is being sold to the public as some sort of Johnny cab taxi from the movie Total Recall when in actuality it is automation under very strict parameters and situations like in the mining example above,

even Google's boasting of over 700,000 miles of testing is on specific roads that have been 3d mapped driven over multiple times under good weather conditions.
 

shabby

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
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even Google's boasting of over 700,000 miles of testing is on specific roads that have been 3d mapped driven over multiple times under good weather conditions.

I really wonder how google's car will get around accidents/construction where you basically have to go onto the oncoming lane to get around.
 

Shlong

Diamond Member
Mar 14, 2002
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I really wonder how google's car will get around accidents/construction where you basically have to go onto the oncoming lane to get around.

Maybe a popup or alert and it asks you what you would like to do next (turn around and find alternate route or go around).
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
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Maybe a popup or alert and it asks you what you would like to do next (turn around and find alternate route or go around).

Maybe it just goes into ultra-safe mode and its a 5 hour clusterfuck as what is normally an easy lane shift for normal drivers triggers everyone's automated car to go 5mph when there are 3,000 cars per hour on the highway.

Oh wait thats exactly what it would do now.

The automated version of the google car versus the self driving version goes 25mph in automated mode.

Its like voice recognition. Its come a long way but is no where near as good as regular interfaces. Computing is just not suited to that sort of task.
 
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Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
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Geohot of iPhone hacking fame is making a self-driving car system (by himself!). He's taking a different approach...he's letting the system learn how to drive from him. Check out the video, it actually seems like a pretty good idea:

http://www.theverge.com/2015/12/16/10287826/george-hotz-geohot-iphone-jailbreak-self-driving-car

Another interesting project is from Cruise Automation, which is seeking to sell a $10k kit to turn your car into self-driving machine:

http://www.theverge.com/2014/6/23/5...control-to-steer-brake-and-actually-drive-you

Again, this isn't just fun & games stuff, this could drastically reduce the human death toll from car accidents:

The benefits for such technologies go far beyond convenience. 33,000 Americans die from auto accidents each year, with 1.2 million dying worldwide. Like Google, Cruise believes it can trim those figures by as much as 90 percent using a technology that can sense and react to things faster than humans.
 

Kaido

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Feb 14, 2004
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Google's self-driving tech goes into Chrysler minivans this year:

http://www.engadget.com/2016/05/03/google-fiat-chrysler-self-driving-deal-close/

Bloomberg sources claim that the arrangement will put some of Google's autonomous tech into the 2017 Chrysler Pacifica minivan sometime this year. Just how deep this integration would go isn't clear, but it's not believed to be an exclusive arrangement -- either side could cooperate with other partners. If the leak is accurate, the deal could be signed as soon as May 3rd (if you're reading this in time, today).
 

monkeydelmagico

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2011
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Perfect. By the time I retire there will be self driving 40 foot RV's. Land based cruise ship. Kick back in the easy chair, munch a sandwich, and watch the scenery roll by. All aboard!
 

Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
11,782
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Self-driving cars in Washington DC. That'll be something. especially if there's special events. Imagine parking in a spot with a PAPER SIGN saying you can't. Or if there's a dumpster in the parking area. It will still need a human to tell the car that information.
 

agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
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Google's self-driving tech goes into Chrysler minivans this year:

http://www.engadget.com/2016/05/03/google-fiat-chrysler-self-driving-deal-close/

The HW tech currently in their auto-cars involve rather expensive mechanical lidar systems. The camera/sonic system like on teslas are inadequate for actual autonomy. There's supposed developments of solid state 3d imaging-radar that might be promising for first gen consumer cars, but I seriously doubt the 2020 timeline for that.
 

Ferzerp

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
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The HW tech currently in their auto-cars involve rather expensive mechanical lidar systems. The camera/sonic system like on teslas are inadequate for actual autonomy. There's supposed developments of solid state 3d imaging-radar that might be promising for first gen consumer cars, but I seriously doubt the 2020 timeline for that.


Tesla's stance is that every car rolling off their assembly line currently has the required sensor suite to support autonomous operation. Your information is about 6 months old.
 

Ferzerp

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
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Cute, but no.

They are stating they are. They are selling them, and already allowing you to prebuy the software. They are placing themselves in a very actionable position if it is "Tesla's PR copy for plebs". They feel that the most recent sensor suite is sufficient.

However, I am sure that a forum poster obviously knows more. Especially one whose vocabulary includes the word "plebs". I'm sure you're at the forefront of the field.
 

agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
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Cute, but no.

They are stating they are. They are selling them, and already allowing you to prebuy the software. They are placing themselves in a very actionable position if it is "Tesla's PR copy for plebs". They feel that the most recent sensor suite is sufficient.

However, I am sure that a forum poster obviously knows more. Especially one whose vocabulary includes the word "plebs". I'm sure you're at the forefront of the field.

Google's far ahead in the game, ie actually has an autonomous car, and even its sophisticated lidar system is insufficient for inclement conditions. Also just a heads up that it's only natural tech plebs have trouble telling the difference between PR and actual research.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
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Also I posted this in another thread, but I had the opportunity to go to a Tesla test-drive event with a variety of Model X & S vehicles. The X was the last car I took out & featured both Ludicrous mode (whee!) & Autopilot. It was a VERY good driving experience. The car drove extremely smoothly, and this was with the Gen 1 Autopilot, not the newer Gen 2. My wife's Subaru has EyeSight, which is TACC (traffic-aware cruise control), which is basically just radar cruise-control...it keeps a set distance behind the car ahead of you, so if you're cruising at 70 & they slow down to 68, it automatically slows down & keeps a safe-distance buffer between you & them (plus can slam on the brakes if you get cut off). With Autopilot, it also adds auto-steering to the mix (highway-only right now, with city coming soon).

It was very, very smooth. It handled everything perfectly...drove better than I did, tbh. You do have to give the steering wheel a wiggle every 30 seconds to let it know you're awake. For like the first minute or so of driving, you're kind of like "ahhhhhh" but then you quickly get used to it (well again, I'm used to EyeSight, and this felt like a natural extension of that, just with steering added). I can totally see driving cars working now, having been driven in one myself.

I started this thread four years ago, back in 2013, so it's pretty exciting to see this technology not only get into the wild but also start to mature. Tesla has a big update coming later this month & is hoping to have fully automated driving by the end of 2017, which is awesome:

https://futurism.com/get-ready-elon-musk-says-a-tesla-update-is-coming-in-10-days/

My current commute is 1.5 to 2.0 hours per day, mostly sitting in traffic...I would absolutely love to chill at the wheel during that time. Hopefully they not only figure out the hardware for that, but also the legalities so I don't have to keep my hands on the wheel!
 

monkeydelmagico

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2011
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2020 is rapidly approaching and I don't see any evidence of Nissan, or anyone else, having multiple affordable self driving cars.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
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2020 is rapidly approaching and I don't see any evidence of Nissan, or anyone else, having multiple affordable self driving cars.

Closest I can see right now is the Tesla Model 3, which is shipping this year. However:

1. Base price is $35k (before any available tax incentives & options). On the current models, adding Autopilot adds thousands of dollars to the pricetag. I would expect that the Model 3 would run most people at least $500 a month, which is affordable...if you can afford $500 a month. Maybe not so affordable for the majority of Americans.

2. There are currently something like 400k pre-orders for the Model 3. If you order today, you probably won't see it until 2019.

3. Tesla currently does not offer 100% self-driving capabilities. It's in the works, but it's not available just yet.

As far as I know, no other manufacturer offers fully automated driving at this time. Lots of cars have TACC; more are coming out with slow-speed TACC (Stop & Go, Traffic Jam Assist, etc.), and some have automated lane-keep assist like Mercedes' Steering Assist feature in their Distronic Plus system. Volvo is working on a pilot group with their own autopilot system in their Intellisafe initiative, but I have a hard time believing anyone else will match Tesla's purchasable technology given that they have over a billion miles of recorded Autopilot data already with customers who have their cars.

I think the current state of self-driving cars is: Tesla's tech is the closest to meeting the growing "2020" goal, the Model 3 will be affordable by the middle class, and the future is a question mark. I don't know if anyone else will have a system that truly competes against Tesla in the next few years. There will be systems that get close (TACC, lane-keep, self-parking), but Tesla seems to own the Autopilot market right now.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
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So here's an interesting article with a different take on self-driving cars:

The customer is always wrong: Tesla lets out self-driving car data – when it suits


"The luxury car maker is quick to divulge data to suggest its technology was not responsible for crashes but refuses to let drivers themselves see the data logs."

Several issues at play here:

1. Tesla will basically throw you under the bus if you publicly lie about what you did, in order to defend their image. Not a bad thing & perfectly within their rights, but turns out a lot of people do lie to the media:

In a statement to the Guardian, Tesla defended this practice. “In unusual cases in which claims have already been made publicly about our vehicles by customers, authorities or other individuals, we have released information based on the data to either corroborate or disprove these claims. The privacy of our customers is extremely important and something we take very seriously, and in such cases, Tesla discloses only the minimum amount of information necessary.”

Tesla indemnifies itself extensively in its privacy policy, granting itself the right to “transfer and disclose information, including personal and non-personally identifiable information … to protect the rights, property, safety, or security of the Services, Tesla, third parties, visitors to our Services, or the public, as determined by us in our sole discretion”. The legal status of user agreements varies by jurisdiction.

2. Tesla will not give you your car's raw data. Best I've seen is a copy of the detailed log to a customer post-accident. Per the article, Tesla collects a truckload of data from their vehicles, including "whether a customer’s hands were on the wheel, when a door was opened, which of its self-driving processes were active at the moment and whether or not they had malfunctioned." Two sides to that coin...yes, it can make driving safer, identify problems, and so on, but on the flip side, Tesla is basically the NSA of automotive manufacturers. afaik, none of my current or previous cars record when I open the door, haha. Wonder what the data access policy will be on your vehicle's information in the future...

3. Tesla, imo, mis-markets their automation features. "Autopilot" sounds like self-driving, not driving-assist. I think they jumped the gun on giving the feature that name. iirc there's only been one instance when they took the heat for it, although they cited the software not having that particular feature (lateral detection) & also blamed the driver for not paying attention...both valid excuses, but the word "Autopilot" still sounds like that should NOT have happened:

In only one case – the May death of Canton, Ohio, Tesla driver Joshua Brown – has the company publicly admitted that its software made a mistake. In that case, the Autopilot software did not “see” the white side of a tractor-trailer as it moved in front of the car against the white sky. The driver was reportedly watching one of the Harry Potter movies at that moment and did not see the vehicle, either.

Tesla takes issue with the characterization of Autopilot’s performance in the crash as a failure and told the Guardian that it only distributes detailed information from the site of auto accidents to the press when it believes someone quoted in the media is being unfair.

https://www.recode.net/2016/7/26/12285930/tesla-mobileye-self-driving-cars

When asked why the two companies parted ways, Sashua pointed to the companies’ respective responses to the fatal accident. Mobileye’s technology is only capable of helping to avoid accidents with cars in front of it, not trucks crossing the highway laterally, as was the case in this accident.

“This incident involved a laterally crossing vehicle, which current-generation AEB systems are not designed to actuate upon,” the company wrote.

Tesla said Autopilot, which combines proprietary and third-party technology, is supposed to be able to recognize “any interruption of the ground plane in the path of the vehicle” but “the high, white side of the box truck, combined with a radar signature that would have looked very similar to an overhead sign, caused automatic braking not to fire.”

To me, "Autopilot" doesn't sound like "oh yeah, the current-gen Autopilot doesn't see lateral obstacles". Then you have the self-parking "Summon" feature:

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-car...3/tesla-self-driving-crash-summon-autonomous/

Tesla claims that Overton activated Summon three seconds after he stepped out of the car and closed the door, saying the action "was initiated by a double-press of the gear selector stalk button, shifting from Drive to Park and requesting Summon activation ." The automaker also pointed out to Overton that use of Summon requires that the driver agree to a terms of use that specifically mentions that the vehicle "may not detect certain obstacles" that are too low or too high for the car's sensors to see—perhaps why the car didn't stop before impacting the high-riding trailer.

However, I think this is a good point:

http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/it-s-your-fault-tesla-sends-owner-detailed-log-after-n572926

"Even if he did forget to cancel the 'self-parking' feature and left, why is this car not smart enough to know its own clearance and the clearance it is heading towards?" wrote one Facebook user. "Self-parking means 'self-parking.' Not assisted parking or part-auto parking, SELF-PARKING."

Yes, I understand Tesla's POV, especially with the users agreeing to the legal terminology about usage, but when you put the words "Auto-pilot" and "self-parking" in your advertising and then your car runs into a semi-truck on the highway or drives itself into a trailer out of park mode...hmm. Being a beta-tester for self-driving software sounds kinda risky, especially given that certain features aren't always well-thought-out & requires media pressure to change. For example:

Currently, Summon is controlled by an app on the vehicle owner's smartphone. In order to activate Summon, the user holds down a forward or reverse button on the Summon screen of the Tesla app. If you take your finger off either of the buttons, the Tesla will stop immediately (in case you drop your phone). Originally, the feature was controlled by holding a button on the key fob, but after Consumer Reports raised concerns over what happens if you drop your keys, Tesla switched to smartphone control. It's unknown whether Overton's car uses the key fob or the app.

Scary video...imagine if there was a little kid in front of the car, instead of a bicycle or a bag:


Implementing a deadman's switch was a good idea, but I would hesitate to release a feature like that to the public without having a 360-degree infrared camera or something that would completely prevent obstacles from getting hit. CR's test model even scraped a wheel in their testing.

On the flip side, Autopilot is twice as safe as a human at driving:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...s-autopilot-makes-accidents-50pc-less-likely/

"The probability of having an accident is 50 per cent lower if you have Autopilot on," said Musk, speaking at an energy conference in Oslo, Norway. "Even with our first version, it's almost twice as good as a person."

Drawing on early data from Tesla's cars, Musk said that the average number of kilometres driven by a car before an accident was almost double when Autopilot was switched on.

It's kind of hard to gather enormous amounts of data without, well, gathering enormous amounts of data. So beta-testing with actual drivings is really the fastest way to gather all sorts of information about different road types, weather conditions, driver behavior, and so on. Downside is that it comes with some risks, along with some currently mis-marketed feature names. In my own testing of the Gen1 Autopilot on a Model X, I did feel very confident with it on the highway. Plus they have a software update now that requires you to wiggle the wheel every 30 seconds or so (which I think is a dumb implementation; they should have some kind of touch-detection sensor on the wheel because wiggling the steering wheel is a bit annoying, but as the car doesn't have that tech already, they went with a solution using the existing hardware), so it's harder to not pay attention like the guy in the semi-truck accident was doing.

Props to Tesla for pushing this technology forward, however. I am curious to see how other automakers deal with self-driving systems. Tesla has an enormous lead as far as data collection goes; also curious if they'd ever be willing to share that data to make other brands of self-driving vehicles safer (legal issues aside).
 

tweakmonkey

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I went to my friend's house the other night and he used his amazon echo to open his garage (using voice control saying "open the garage") then pressed the summon button on his phone. His Tesla 90D pulled out of the garage and waited for us to get in. I think it opened the door too but I might be imagining that part. At the end of the night it parked the car too. The best part is his garage is rather small but since the car can park itself he can now fit a second car in the garage because the Tesla doesn't open the door when it parks itself. The future.
 

sontakke

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Aug 8, 2001
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why can't Tesla open the garage by itself? it should be smart enough to do that! what if your friend forgot to tell Echo to open the garage first? Will Tesla crash through the door?
 
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