NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,853
8,314
136
Started this with an already-sputtering bottle of Purell Advanced hand sanitizer but finally got to the same point with one of my generic Kroger bottles that I bought for the outbreak.

If you're like me then you are annoyed by the large amount of hand sanitizer left behind when a bottle sputters and stops dispensing. I used a bit of my 99.9% isopropyl (PUREtronics Electronics Cleaning Grade) to loosen it up and liquefy enough pour it into a near-full bottle where mixing it makes it gel again. I realized that this slightly increases the potency as well, so you might want to add a bit in to stretch your bottles too.

Since then I redistributed the remaining sanitizer back into the empty bottles so I can have them in more places (door, kitchen, living room, each car, etc), which removed the need to ever add alcohol (for now), but I still figured I'd share for anyone else trying to make use of the remnants.
"Waste not, want not." I'm good at stretching things, too. But I couldn't find hand sanitizer when I started looking for it. No matter, in my situation soap and water's fine, for my hands, anyway. They say it's more effective than hand sanitizer, at least for disinfecting your hands.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Italy's new cases dropped for 2nd day in a row. That's the good news. The bad news is the mortality rate is still crazy high 9.4%. But I'm just going to focus on the good news for now because Italy is peaking or have peaked.

When did Italy go to lockdown? About 2 weeks ago? 3 weeks ago? The stock market started selling off when Italy's number started climbing. Before then, I think people thought who cares, this virus is only bad in China and South Korea. Who cares about them. But when it hit Italy, the rich people in the Western world got scared because they realized their country was next. That's what started all the panic selling. If Italy can show sign of stabilization, I think that will greatly calm the market somewhat because then they will also think the virus will peak in their country in about 2-3 weeks as well. It will give some hope whether that hope is false or not.
 
Reactions: cytg111

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,367
2,375
136
Yeah I think it's going to help but as soon as everything gets back to normal we'll just see more cases. Really a tough spot to figure out the right balance. Personally I think we should go with this social distancing thing for a month or two, then slowly ease back to normal life and open stuff but keep restricting out of town travel (that's kinda hard to enforce but it can at least be a huge recommendation). Then slowly allow that but only within the same province, then within the country. I say restrict international for at least a year if more and that is easier to enforce. Other than essential stuff like product shipments etc, which even now are not restricted. That kinda has to keep going.

Thing is, for this to work every country needs to be onboard as well. Not easy to do. And even then, it only takes 1 case to slip through and we're back to square one.
There is an excellent article out there titled "The Hammer and the Dance" that explains how China and South Korea were both able to tame an epidemic in less than 2 months time. It argues that other countries (i.e. current crisis centers of western Europe and the U.S.) can also act similarly now, but that ongoing vigilance is required even after returning to normal life.

Specifically, what South Korea is doing extremely well is testing and contact tracing, then isolating the infected and at-risk away from the general population. That is the only way to stop an epidemic. The emergency lockdown measures being taken in western Europe and parts of the U.S. are all we have got now, but will not end the epidemic if robust testing and tracing are not implemented in the summer months.
 
Reactions: Muse

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,815
11,171
136
Didn't work out so well for Hong Kong:

Odd. Wonder what was the viral reservoir for them? After 2-3 weeks most cases should burn out.

Counties and states are saying liquor stores are "essential business and services" while shutting down factories like Tesla Fremont plant from operating.

I think at certain point, we need to ask ourselves and start having conversations about how much do we let this fear of the virus control us. We all need to get back to work at some point or else there won't be an economy to go back to work even if we're healthy.

If testing can be conducted on a facility-by-facility basis, then I'm all for factories reopening. They have to know who is going in and out and what is their status, though!

You find me a stoner who got stupid, got into a car and killed someone.

Umm.


Still not on the level with alcohol DUI, but it does happen. Not trying to turn this into a weed thread btw, just thought I'd point out that THC DUI does happen, and it can kill.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
856
126
"Waste not, want not." I'm good at stretching things, too. But I couldn't find hand sanitizer when I started looking for it. No matter, in my situation soap and water's fine, for my hands, anyway. They say it's more effective than hand sanitizer, at least for disinfecting your hands.
Yeah. I'm using bar soap or dish detergent any time I can get to a sink but I've been sick this last week and couldn't throw the cat off me every time I sneezed or blew my nose (every few minutes for a while there).
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
There is an excellent article out there titled "The Hammer and the Dance" that explains how China and South Korea were both able to tame an epidemic in less than 2 months time. It argues that other countries (i.e. current crisis centers of western Europe and the U.S.) can also act similarly now, but that ongoing vigilance is required even after returning to normal life.

Specifically, what South Korea is doing extremely well is testing and contact tracing, then isolating the infected and at-risk away from the general population. That is the only way to stop an epidemic. The emergency lockdown measures being taken in western Europe and parts of the U.S. are all we have got now, but will not end the epidemic if robust testing and tracing are not implemented in the summer months.
I also think extensive testing and contact tracing is the key to defeating this virus while not destroying your economy. You need to test so you can know who's infected. Then you need to isolate that person away from the general population. But without extensive testing, you're operating blind and don't know who's infected.

We can't follow China model but we can sort of emulate South Korea and their extensive testing and tracking model. Testing is the key. Amazing thing is South Korea kept its restaurants and retail stores open during all of this. Unlike the Western world where we switched to takeout and drive through only, South Korea allowed full dine-in and normal restaurant dining everywhere in the country.

And initially, the country was short of masks because President Moon of South Korea foolishly shipped all their surplus masks to China to help with the virus there before South Korea also blew up. But unlike the US, around 130 South Korean companies worked 24/7 to make and manufacture more masks for its 50 million residents. So while there was real shortage in the beginning, South Korea now has surplus of masks and it's readily available to purchase. If we want to return to any sort of normal life, we have to test. And test some more. We have to know who's infected so we can isolate that person. That's the only way we're going to win.

Another amazing thing about South Korea is they didn't have massive panic grocery buying and hoarding that's going on everywhere in the world now. No one panicked and supermarkets were never stripped bare. People bought normal quantity of items for the most part. People did buy lot of instant ramen noodles in the beginning but that shortage quickly passed and all supplies including toilet paper remained stable. The problem they have now is there's surplus veggies and food all over the country because schools are closed and there's less overall demand. So farmers are suffering and vegetables in storage are rotting.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126

Artorias

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2014
2,134
1,411
136
Will chloroquine phosphate be the answer that Trump hopes? Maybe, maybe not.

Man dies ingesting chloroquine phosphate. Self medicating can be very dangerous. You have to be careful.


Yes lets just take a random dose of an untested medication. Darwin in action folks. Trump please take this drug as well.
 
Reactions: zinfamous

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,396
126
While I agree that countries around the world should study what S Korea did to fight the virus but the main thing is the people over there took the fight seriously. Over here in the US, we still have individuals foolishly ignore social distance, still hang out closely in droves, still sneeze and cough without cover, still not washing their hands, etc... SMH.
 
Last edited:

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
The peak potentially passing in Italy is good news, however it doesn't really address what to do about a long-term lock down. It just shows lock-down is working.

Now imo, a ton of testing is being done in NYC in attempt to statistically prove we are "overreacting" to the virus. If the NYC CFR rate ends up <0.5%, I think the majority of lock-downs will be lifted by May and boomers will be told to stay home as medical production ramps up. That should at least "save" the economy (would take at least a year to get back to where it was before imo).
 
Last edited:
Dec 10, 2005
24,462
7,400
136
Looks like New York is going to give Trump's cocktail a trial.

They have acquired.
750,000 doses of chloroquine
70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine
10,000 doses of Zithromax

It's fine to do a clinical trial. The initial observation that led to this line of treatment discussion was at most hypothesis-generating and needed a much more robust trial to actually see if there was an effect.
 
Reactions: zinfamous and CZroe

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
The peak potentially passing in Italy is good news, however it doesn't really address what to do about a long-term lock down. It just shows lock-down is working.

Now imo, a ton of testing is being done in NYC in attempt to statistically prove we are "overreacting" to the virus. If the NYC CFR rate ends up <0.5%, I think the majority of lock-downs will be lifted by May and boomers will be told to stay home as medical production ramps up. That should at least "save" the economy (would take at least a year to get back to where it was before imo).

I doubt that we will get back to normal financially any time soon. We will get there, but pre 2020? No. Not immediately. Not even a year .This could take 2-3 years, even longer. Especially if this virus lingers. TBH, I think jobs are going to be lost, and never recovered. Certain businesses may never recover. People might lose their homes, cars, etc. It estimated that 74% of Americans are paycheck to paycheck. This event ain't helping and will pull many familes under unless they have a large emergency fund. By large I mean $10k or more. Hell. Many people don't even have a few thousand in the bank. Living on credit. That is most of America.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,938
12,384
126
www.anyf.ca
My workplace still screwing around about letting us work from home even though our PCs are setup for it now (which took way longer than it should to get the ball rolling). We're all getting frustrated and don't feel comfortable going in but don't have a choice. One of my coworker's wife is in the same situation and works at a non essential retail store and they did ZERO precautions at that particular store. So she could bring the virus home to him and he could bring it to us. Then there's the cleaning lady who also works at a bakery, and they didn't make any precautions there either. So she's coming in every day too. Between us coming in and out, cleaning lady etc there's a lot of outside contact happening especially those who have wives also stuck working.

Companies arn't taking this seriously enough. We're bound to get it.

I so wish that flu I got about a month back happened now instead. I think me calling in with symptoms similar to covid-19 would light a fire under their asses. Then again probably not. A few of us are still coughing at work from that virus. You would think that would trigger them to send us home? Nope. "Oh you're not contagious anymore anyway".
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
I doubt that we will get back to normal financially any time soon. We will get there, but pre 2020? No. Not immediately. Not even a year .This could take 2-3 years, even longer. Especially if this virus lingers. TBH, I think jobs are going to be lost, and never recovered. Certain businesses may never recover. People might lose their homes, cars, etc. It estimated that 74% of Americans are paycheck to paycheck. This event ain't helping and will pull many familes under unless they have a large emergency fund. By large I mean $10k or more. Hell. Many people don't even have a few thousand in the bank. Living on credit. That is most of America.

I was looking at a best case scenario of:
  1. Mass testing shows a baseline CFR <0.5% in the USA since it starts to expose the under-reporting of cases early on
  2. The government does a mass bailout to cover March and April for everyone that needs it (business only get bailouts if they keep their employees for some period following, say 3-6 months)
  3. Lock-downs are lifted in May, but high risk populations are told to continue to self-quarantine
  4. Anti-viral treatments that reduce the CFR to that of the flu become widely available in June
  5. Schools reopen on an accelerated curriculum shortly after #4
  6. A vaccine is produced and available in early 2021
The economic fallout will certainly linger, but this chain of events would at least have us avoiding a second Great Depression because we would no longer have to wait for a vaccine to resume our lives. All that's needed is to get through #4. I'm hopeful though not dependent on this happening.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
856
126
Thunderf00t has another scary video out:

It's just him modeling around using Excel but he does have some scary stuff to show.

It doesn't look like the model considers that the spreat rate will change as the remaining number of infectable people dwindles, but it's still pretty scary.
 
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