It's suspected to be far, far worse. (uncorroborated) reports of cremations without identification are coming out of China.If this is the case, and China isn't lying about the number of deaths, maybe the death rate isn't quite as bad as some have feared? If 75,000 were infected on the 25th, surely far far more would be projected to be infected by now considering the rate of transmission.
...and it takes over 2 weeks before we can know how many infections we currently have. They don't even classify 2019-nCov deaths as 2019-nCov if there were any complications to attribute it to instead, which is going to be the lion's-share if it is anything like influenza in the matter of who dies first.It's suspected to be far, far worse. (uncorroborated) reports of cremations without identification are coming out of China.
‘Draconian measures’: China allegedly cremating coronavirus victims in secret - Washington Examiner
A Chinese media outlet covering the deadly coronavirus in the country has raised suspicion about the actual death toll of the illness after local doctors said they have been cremating victims of the disease in secret. "Also, one thing that #China is hiding is the number of death caused by the...www.washingtonexaminer.com
At absolute minimum it's 4%, and that's already well above influenza mortality rates (per infected person).
nCoV mortality rate:
Influenza/related pneumonia deaths:
(.14%)
You're conflating the rate of death per infection based on one month into an infection as being the overall rate of death for an entire populace, that's absurd. You have to look at rate of death per infected person, not per capita.Per 100k? Let's just take the 210 death, blow it up and call it 500 a month, that is 6,000 a year. Let's call Chinese population 1B, that is 0.6 per 100,000
of course that is on the spot rate and death rate could spike, but it doesn't look that way so far.
You're conflating the rate of death per infection based on one month into an infection as being the overall rate of death for an entire populace, that's absurd. You have to look at rate of death per infected person, not per capita.
Then that was a mistake on my part, I assumed that chart was referencing number of infected, not number of citizens (poor assumption).you are the one that brought up death per population as opposed to per infection. This virus showed up on Dec 1 based on tracker.
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Then that was a mistake on my part, I assumed that chart was referencing number of infected, not number of citizens (poor assumption).
Here:
CDC chart, 2017-2018 season estimated 44.8M illnesses, 61k of which died. That's .13% dead per infected, vs above cited 4% for nCoV.Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical Visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 Flu Season | CDC
Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDCwww.cdc.gov
Well this is disconcerting:
Needs to be replicated to confirm, but according to Indian researchers, they found HIV virus-like insertions within nCoV which are exceedingly unlikely to develop naturally, indicating it's probably designed.Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag
We are currently witnessing a major epidemic caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The evolution of 2019-nCoV remains elusive. We found 4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the 2019-nCoV and are not present in other coronaviruses. Importantly, amino acid...www.biorxiv.org
No shit, I know everyone was a little leery about there being a biomedical research facility in the middle of the province that started the infection, but I'm not sure anyone was ready to leap into full-on umbrella corp/raccoon city. Maybe that card's still on the table.This gives more credence to the bio-weapon escaping lab theory. I hope that was not the case or China will have a lot of explaining to do.
That would lead to, uh, an interesting global situation.This gives more credence to the bio-weapon escaping lab theory. I hope that was not the case or China will have a lot of explaining to do.
This is what happens when we don't have a "deep dish pizza is not real pizza" or "real chili has beans" thread active, guys.
I don't think people have to wait until it's rampant outside of China to be concerned and begin making preparations... like, don't count on flying to or from Southeast Asia this summer. If this was known two weeks earlier then my brother probably wouldn't be in Thailand right now.Like I said, you should worry more about Flu than 2019-nCoV, unless you are in China. Then it is a different ball game. Just the sheer economic loss on the people taking time off for flu is staggering.
But thus far it does look like most of the death is in the elderly/infirm group and hopefully it stays that way.
200 death on 10,000 infection is 2%, assume the death rate doubles then it becomes 4%. The biggest problem right now is there is no way for us to tell how much of the rise in death rate is because of the potency of the virus vs people are just not getting the care they need.
Fucking PLA should be setting up field hospitals instead of waiting for the two hospitals they are supposed to be building. The medical resources are overwhelmed.
I don't think people have to wait until it's rampant outside of China to be concerned and begin making preparations... like, don't count on flying to or from Southeast Asia this summer. If this was known two weeks earlier then my brother probably wouldn't be in Thailand right now.
To use your own analogy, don't wait until you're losing the same ball game to begin strategizing. You'll likely do better from the start if you learn how the opponent plays against others before your face off, so why wait until you're struggling to win?
No. Did I ever imply we should? Are you insisting that the flu is comparable?I just heard on radio a doctor was saying 1 in 600 people around you is a flu carrier. That is probably Canadian numbers but it is probably not far from the global number. Are you going to quarentine everyone?
No. Did I ever imply we should? Are you still insisting that the flu is comparable?
Ironically, the people who claim to have "strong immune systems" are often the carriers because they go about their business while asymptomatic.
Mandate citizens self-quarantine (via taking time off) while ill, and subsidize companies for lost work-hours?Then what would you like the government to do that they are not already doing?
Something like that, yes.Are you saying that lack of such nef-light threads is why we have this thread, or why we (the world) has coronavirus in the first place?
No shit, I know everyone was a little leery about there being a biomedical research facility in the middle of the province that started the infection, but I'm not sure anyone was ready to leap into full-on umbrella corp/raccoon city. Maybe that card's still on the table.
Doesn't mean it's a good one, CN isn't well known for quality controlCounter argument would be the mortality rate is too low for bio weapon
Counter argument would be the mortality rate is too low for bio weapon
"The government?" I'm talking about you and me in response to people saying individual's shouldn't be concerned yet.Then what would you like the government to do that they are not already doing?